Sweet suicide

[cero_z]

Hi, I played a pretty weird pot today in the Bellagio 10/20 (no max). I hadn't played long with my opponents, having just arrived in the game from a must-move table. They knew basically nothing about me, and vice versa, although my impression of all of them was that they were thinking players who were trying to play well, but who were not great readers. I thought they probably respected my play at this point, given that I'd won a couple of well-played pots with strong hands. I was not just splashing around here; I had specific reads and a plan for the hand. See if you follow me, or if I'm just nuts.

I'm on the button with 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and 4200. Principals are the SB (25K), BB (2700), and "Blind Man" (1400). Blind Man has been playing his last few hands blind, calling pre-flop in the dark, and then betting 20 or 40 bucks on each street, unless someone raises--then he looks and plays on. He's a fun-loving guy, who clearly intends to make some moves.

Pre-flop : MP opens for 60, Blind Man calls blind, I call on the button, SB and BB call.

Flop ($300): T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
3 Checks, blind man bets 20. I raise to 100. SB calls in tempo, BB calls, MP (pre-flop raiser) folds. Blind man assesses me, re-raises to 360. I re-raise to 1360. SB calls without much pause! BB goes into the tank. He (25-ish kid) is mouthing numbers to himself, and then he asks the Blind Man for a chip count, and if he has enough to re-raise. Blind man says, "No, I only have about 1000 more." BB calls. Blind Man shakes his head and folds.

Turn ($4640): A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
SB checks (!), BB goes all-in for 1300, seeming very calm and self-assured. I go all-in for 2800. How do you like them apples?

[nopepper]

i hope you sucked out...great for meta game though

[xorbie]

Strange indeed. BB probably has JQ. SB seems like he has a strong hand, but that could easily be a hand like QQ/KK that he will give up on. Anyway you pretty much have to go all in by the turn, but your flop play is a bit strange.

[cero_z]

OK,

Obviously this hand as posted is not as interesting as I thought it was. Here was my thought process throughout the hand.

On the flop, I hoped to win a $300 pot immediately for $100 vs. a blind bettor and a bunch of guys who had checked, or at least isolate the blind man if the others had no interest. I don't need much (or anything) to make this play, and since I figured the SB and BB knew this, their calls didn't speak to much strength in my mind.

When the blind man reraised 260 more, I can of course just give up on my bluff. But 3 things deterred me from folding. He was a move-maker who hadn't made a big move yet. Given the conditions, it would seem like an ideal time for him to try a squeeze play. And finally, he acted overly friendly while I was thinking, which I generally read as weakness. So, I decided he couldn't back the hand with his stack, and I put him to the test, raising the rest of his chips.

The SB then surprised me tremendously by calling. If he had a good hand, why hadn't he initially reraised? If he had a draw, he would be making a terrible call. The only hand that made sense to me for him to have was TT for a brilliantly played top set, and though I didn't think this guy was brilliant, that was what I put him on. To me, any one-pair hand (and probably all 2-pair hands) is too weak to play here, given the action so far, unless you are very sure one bettor is bluffing, and the other is weak.

Then, when the BB pondered and called, I knew 100% that he had an open-ended straight draw--it's the only hand that makes sense to flat-call with there.

As I said, I had put the SB on a set, and so I expected him to immediately move in on the turn if a 6, 7, 8, Q, or K didn't fall. And realistically, he would probably not fear the 6 or the 7 quite as much, and might move in on those cards as well. He can obviously see that there's at least one open-ender drawing, so he must push unless the board pairs. When he checked on the turn, I knew he couldn't have a set; nobody is stupid enough to check a set there. Once I realized that, I knew he could probably be moved off of his hand.

When the BB moved all-in, especially with such confidence, I knew instantly what he had: an open-ender that had picked up a diamond draw. This is the only hand that makes sense, IMO- with an open-ender, he's way better off checking and calling in this hand where it seems unlikely that anyone will fold to his bet, and there's a good chance he'll get a free card, now that the SB has checked.

So, I was suddenly in a sweet position: I had begun 4th street "knowing" I was done with the hand, and now realized I had the bettor beaten, and could possibly move out the best hand (whatever it was). I pushed, and the SB then folded KK faceup in disgust! What a tool. I don't understand how he hadn't reraised pre-flop in the worst position with over 200 bucks already in there and a super-deep stack; I don't know how he could have such a great read to know that one pair was good on the flop, yet somehow think that the A on the turn had hit one of us.

Anyway, I got back my 1500, and the dealer burned and turned the beautiful 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]; I was nearly positive my 4s were already ahead, but that card left no doubt in my mind that I was good. The BB sheepishly turned over the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], and my hand was good. The SB threw a fit, vowing to bust us both.

[Allinlife]

very interesting to read your thought process/reads cero... when I first looked at the post, I thought you were just gambling it up pair+flush draw and isolating the shorty with the worst of it (25~35%ish equity). but not it all makes sense, and I bow to your perfect-read-oriented play [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

nh

[cero_z]

Hi AllinLife,

[ QUOTE ]
I bow to your perfect-read-oriented play
[img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Hahaha. I wasn't saying I didn't make any mistakes in the hand, by any means, though I am mostly proud of the way I played it. I was clearly super-lucky, not just in the cards that fell, but also in that the other players took actions that I could leverage against them.

What was most interesting to me about the hand was the way that my opponents screwed up their hands. If the SB reraises pre-flop, I'm gone. If he reraises me on the flop either of his 2 opportunities, I'm gone. If the SB pushes on the turn, I'm gone. The BB's turn push is not really a good play, IMO,unless he somehow knows that I'll raise out the SB; checking would have been far better, since if I fold, the SB will not for just 1300 more, and there's no way any of BB's pair "outs" are good.

My most obvious mistake was missing how good SB's hand was. Had I had an inkling that he had an overpair, I would've never gotten involved in this hand to begin with. Also, it may have been a mistake on average to use 2800 to try to move him on the turn regardless, given that he's already made a pretty bad call with KK in this hand.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]

My most obvious mistake was missing how good SB's hand was. Had I had an inkling that he had an overpair, I would've never gotten involved in this hand to begin with.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you saying you won't get in with small suited connectors for cheap against an overpair? The implied odds are enormous!

[Mackerel]

Good post, nice play. Not so sure I would ever make the original preflop call, but I love the thought process you had in the play of the hand from there on.

SB's play was sickening, but I like the BB's turn push. Note that he only has about 31% pot equity against both you and the SB. If either of you drops, it goes up, but it turns out that it goes up the most (to +43%) if you reraise and the SB folds. And given your flop re-raise, I don't think it's that much of a stretch to like the chances of you pushing when bet into, and since SB has shown no real strength on a draw-heavy board, it's not unreasonable to think that a push from you might get him out (of course, that also helps you, especially considering how awful the SB's laydown turned out to be, but that doesn't make the play wrong for the BB).

Why don't you like his turn push? Is there some other factor that makes a check call better?

BTW - what do you look like anyway? I played in that game a couple of nights when I was in Vegas last December, and I want to avoid you next time I'm out there as well!

[gomberg]

Remind me again what you look like - I don't want to sit down with you [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

ni han

[oreogod]

[ QUOTE ]
Remind me again what you look like - I don't want to sit down with you [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

ni han

[/ QUOTE ]

I would, in a heartbeat. I love playing against ppl who are up for a coinflip on the off chance u are ahead. And if u are ahead, most likely u have half the deck against u.

You live anywhere near Portland?