PP NL400 KK preflop: Did I screw myself by minreraising here?

[BadVoodooX]

10 handed NL 400 on Party.

MP2 $450
LP2 $400
Hero $861
SB $404

(for some reason bisonbisons converter isn't working, bear with me)

Folded to MP2, MP2 calls, truly horrible calling station.
Folded to LP2 to my immediate right, Raises to $13. I don't put much stock in this raise, I've been doing the same to isolate the calling station.

I'm on the button with KhKd and assuming he just wants to isolate the calling station but I'd prefer to keep actually get some action here and not just take the pot down so I just min reraise to $22, hoping to play 3 way with calling station and/or LP2 but preferably no more than 3 players.

SB reraises me to $48. Tight, solid, somewhat tricky regular. Obviously 3rd reraise is ugly but somewhat undersized and my min reraise is highly abnormal for me and I've been raising to isolate calling station very aggressively last 2 rounds. Don't know how he plays AK out of the blinds either.

MP2 folds,
LP2 folds,

Obviously I have to at least draw at a set here so even if he's got AA, he's pricing me into the flop and if he's got AA and a K comes, I'll likely stack him.

Hero calls $26

Flop: Pot $113
Ad, Ks, Qh

SB bets $70

Bleh!

WTF did I get myself into and what do I do here?

[okayplayer]

Well, it's tough to lay down a set, but I think a tight, solid player (regular nonetheless) is not putting in a 3rd raise PF without AA (or maybe KK, but that's not possible here), esp. OOP. I think you should have re raised more, but now that you've arrived at this point, however tough it may be, I think you are drawing to one out and should fold.

[durrrr]

3rd nuts no good? stik it in.. hope u hit k, if not beat his A9 off w/ ur trips. If beat rebuy, next hand, you can lose your $$ in worse places. folding here = -------EV

-durrrr

[Bosox]

I'll risk it and play for my stack here.
sox

[LuvDemNutz]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll risk it and play for my stack here.


[/ QUOTE ]

[9cao]

Your reraise was only to 22 which is 5.5xBB, therefore I think Villain can easily make this play with AK and QQ. 3 ways to have AK here, 3 ways to have QQ, and 3 ways to have AA. I would say given the action there is a higher probabilty of AA but still not greater than 50%. Stack off here.

[bruce]

I'm going to try to get'em all in. If SB has AA then he's going to get himself doubled up. With this type of action
it's impossible to put him only on AA. Why can't he have QQ or AK? Nobody plays in that predictable a manner.

Bruce

[DonButtons]

Tell me which "SB reraises me to $48. Tight, solid, somewhat tricky regular." screen name and it makes it a lot easier.

From any decent regular, I fold here, as he def. has AA/KK after this third raise, and when the K hits, he has AA.

[bruce]

Your discounting possible hands he can reraise with from small blind. I doubt that opponent will only reraise with only KK or AA esp. after 2nd miniraise. I don't think its unrealistic for
us to include QQ, AK, and maybe AQ. Jacks are possible BTF but based on his flop bet we can discount them. Are you telling me that's it's also impossible for SB to be bluffing
with rubbish from SB?

There are 6 combos of AA, 8 of AK, 6 of QQ, and 16 of AQ.
The only hand that crushes us is AA. What about the other
30 hands? I know hero got lucky, but there is no way in hell I muck second set, UNLESS I have a GREAT read on my opponent. In an online game, I don't think you can ever get
this accurate a read on your opponent.

Bruce

[okayplayer]

[ QUOTE ]
There are 6 combos of AA, 8 of AK, 6 of QQ, and 16 of AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]
There are 3 combos of AA, 3 combos of AK, 3 of QQ and 9 of AQ.

[ QUOTE ]
UNLESS I have a GREAT read on my opponent. In an online game, I don't think you can ever get
this accurate a read on your opponent.

[/ QUOTE ]
Actually THIS type of read is usually pretty easy to get on an online opponent. OP said that he was a tight, solid regular. This means that he has many hands on him, and I can almost guarantee you that he has never put in a 3rd bet OOP with AQ/AK or QQ. For tight solid players (unless the people doing the raising are complete maniacs), the 3rd raise means AA/KK.