Nasty River in large pot.....keep leading?

[boondockst]

Party Poker (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB checks.

Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
Someone bets $0.50, 1 call, Hero raises to $2.00, Both players call.

Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, $7.75 in pot)</font>
SB checks, Hero bets $10, both players call.

River: ($37.75)7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero bets? (The Villain has $19 left and i cover him.)


Final Pot:

[boondockst]

I guess this hand is too difficult for the night crowd. It's not a "Fold this set? Fold this AK? Lay down KK to PF 3-bet?" thread...oh well maybe someone tomorrow will offer insight....

And if anyone posts "Fold PF" you're getting kicked in the nuts...

[homeboy]

This is a very difficult situation indeed.

By the pot size I'm guessing you're playing a very low nl game. ie either $25 nl or $50 nl.. probably $25 eh?
In those limits the avg player is bad enough to be calling large bets on straight and flush draws. If someone had a 7 he might try to seize power on the flop. Also, if someone had a 6 he might try to a raise on the turn. Moreover, if someone had a 7 and then saw you overbetting the pot once a second 6 came they should either fold or raise (as a semi bluff perhaps). The main hands I can see these players calling with are flush and straight draws, not mid/top pair. Either way, your opponents don't have that much money left and if you check the river you're exposing yourself to a very likely bluff.

So you have 2 options here:

1. bet. if they got nothing they will both fold. if one of them has a house he'll call and you'll lose.

2. check. if they got nothing they'll both check and you'll win the pot. if one of them has the lower full house he may check and he'll take the pot. if one of them has a full house and goes all-in you may call and lose. if both of them have nothing and one of them decides to bluff all-in you may call and win.

If you choose to check it's very much possible you're gonna run into a huge headache as one of them goes all-in - maybe on a bluff. Also, if you bet and one of them goes all-in with a house, you're the sucker once again. So again it all comes back to your feel and how well you know these players.

My ruling is you should analyze the situation the same way I did for those 2 particular players. How much info do you have on them? Are they tricky or do they play straight forward poker? Do they bluff often? Are they bluffable? If you know the players well and think you'll make a good river judgement as one of them goes all-in then you should probably check. If you don't want to be faced with this kind of decision and think you may go on tilt upon being bluffed out of the pot AND you think one of them may throw away the smaller full house, then you might want to bet.

You know this is a very difficult decision.. I'm agonizing over this. I've thought about this so much I've changed my mind several times and I may have got it wrong after all. If anyone out there thought of something I missed please respond.

[boondockst]

I also am of the thought that a player with a 7 would have raised the flop/bet more and that a player with a 6 would definitely raise the turn....Large coldcalls in SSNL confuse the #@!%@#$ out of me but i guess that's part of the game...I knew one of them likely had A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] x

So what i weakly did.....First player checks, I bet $8 (less than the turn but i thought it was reasonable making the pot ~$43...The Villain pushes 11 more in so it's $11 more to me into a ~$54-ish pot....I only beat a bluff...My "blocking bet" got raised and this hand just sucked....)

[xorbie]

Converter seems a bit messed up on PF action, but what exactly are you trying to accomplish with that turn bet?

[boondockst]

Oh yeah...that's me fudging the converter....What's wrong with the turn bet? I didn't want a 3-way pot going this big...I actually wanted to take it down right there and was shocked to be called in both places

[xorbie]

Why does a $10 bet take it down but a $5 bet doesn't?

[kevin017]

hmm. you're pretty much f'd. i think you have to check here. if both were drawing which i think they were, then they'll be checking the river. i don't think they could make a play at it when its so dangerous. if they push, fold. if they make a reasonable bet call like a sissy.

i could see pushing here also, but its risky. i'd need a read to push.

[fuzzbox]

Good god check (behind ?) and dont call any bets. Dont put a single dime more into that pot.

[boondockst]

fold a $35 pot? I almost timed out but decided to call his push from the strange betting and he had A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] for two pair, ace high....