NL100 Hand: Fold bottom set here?

HoldEmKillah · #1 07-08-2005, 02:33 PM

No particular read except the villian is loose (VP$P = 56%) yet not very aggressive (PFR = 4%, AF=2). Villian's read on me could be that I can be a bit laggy, raising often and stealing quite a few pots

Do I dump my bottom set here? Laying down a set on a dry board like this is very difficult for me. Am I behind and if not, what hands am I ahead of here and why? I felt sick when he played his stange c/r on me on the turn. After all, he would have no reason to think I would bet the turn since I checked the flop. In my mind he either has a monster or is bluffing, thinking I'm trying to steal it on the button.

Thoughts?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (6 max, 5 handed) converter

SB ($102)
BB ($216.85)
UTG ($408.38)
MP ($67.9)
Hero ($125.81)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG raises to $3, 1 fold, Hero calls $3, 1 fold, BB calls $2.

Flop: ($9.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($9.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $6, BB calls $6, UTG raises to $15, Hero calls $9, BB folds.

River: ($45.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets $40,

Results in white below: 
Hero calls $40.
Final Pot: $125.50
UTG has Jd Jc (three of a kind, jacks).
Hero has 3c 3d (three of a kind, threes).
Outcome: UTG wins $125.50. [/color

swolfe · #2 07-08-2005, 02:36 PM

bet the flop

HoldEmKillah · #3 07-08-2005, 02:43 PM

We could start another fifty threads about not slowplaying sets. I understand why many would advocate betting this flop but regardless, I don't mind not giving a free one here on a rainbow board when the only way my opponent will make a straight on the turn is if a 6 or a 10 falls and someone is holding 4 5 or 8 9. I'll take that chance here and let them catch up, hoping someone picks up 2 pair or top pair on the turn. I'm happy with my flop play and wouldn't play it any other way but to each their own. I'm confused about the next 2 streets and weather or not my set is any good.

Thoughts on the turn and river anyone?

Maulik · #4 07-08-2005, 02:50 PM

I will stack my lower set every time. More importantly on a drawless board against a VP$IP 56%, all the more reason to pay him off.

amoeba · #5 07-08-2005, 02:54 PM

against a typical loose passive, i think you played it fine.

Sephus · #6 07-08-2005, 03:00 PM

folding the river is out of the question.

Finite_Risk · #7 07-08-2005, 03:22 PM

AA would likely play this the same way - I think you have to get stacked here

HoldEmKillah · #8 07-08-2005, 03:36 PM

Those of you are saying they would get stacked here: are you saying you would RAISE this river? Seriously?

amoeba · #9 07-08-2005, 03:48 PM

thats what they are saying.

I think turn checkraise is quite suspicious thus on river I suspect either monster or pure bluff thus I call and not raise.

SLEEPER · #10 07-08-2005, 04:06 PM

The first thing mentioned in the post is how our villian is extremely passive.... given his preflop raise, turn checkraise, and then big bet on the river, I would start to get worried that he has a set... a passive player does not turn checkraise and bet out big on the river with AK... the only holding that he could have that we beat, is AA, but I would have thought that he would bet it on the flop.... he is loose, but extremely passive, and yet in this hand, he is going crazy with the betting. This is exactly the type of player that you can safely fold a set too....