whats my equity with 47s?

JooWish622 · #1 07-06-2005, 10:05 PM

4 handed 2-4 game on full tilt. Villian is in the BB with 160 to start. I have 600

Tight-predictable oppenants.
I raise to 12 with 47c. BB raises to 20. I call.
FLop is 73J two clubs. Villian bets 40. My move? If I raise here, whats my equity? Id say my folding equity here is about 10 percent. I put him on AJ 10 percent of the time, AA/KK 60 percent. AK/AQ/JJ the other percentage of the time. At what stack size would this become more a calling situation?

cupfinal · #2 07-07-2005, 02:30 AM

I don't think you can assume he has a big pair if the table is as on tilt as you say. Even if he has AA- QQ, you have 14 outs twice, making you about even money. There's also a good chance has two big cards and that you are ahead, especially 4 handed and tilted. I think you should raise to 80-100 total. There's a good chance he lays it down if he has nothing. This also gives him an opportunity to move in, which isn't bad for you. Even if he moves in, the pot would contain (40preflop+80+200raise)=320. You would have to invest 40-60 to win 320, giving you a huge price.

17percent · #3 07-07-2005, 02:36 AM

personally id smooth call all the way.. go all in on any check

Prevaricator · #4 07-07-2005, 02:43 AM

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I don't think you can assume he has a big pair if the table is as on tilt as you say.

[/ QUOTE ]

full tilt is the poker site not the status of the players.

thabadguy · #5 07-07-2005, 05:18 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think you can assume he has a big pair if the table is as on tilt as you say.

[/ QUOTE ]

full tilt is the poker site not the status of the players.

[/ QUOTE ]
OMFG!!!!!

JooWish622 · #6 07-07-2005, 12:00 PM

In regards to the first reply, even if he does have a big pair, he also has redraws if he has a suited broadway. I am unsure how to work out the numbers and I feel like my push here was slightly -ev given my oppenant's low fold equity. Someone crank out the numbers?

dtbog · #7 07-07-2005, 12:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Id say my folding equity here is about 10 percent. I put him on AJ 10 percent of the time, AA/KK 60 percent. AK/AQ/JJ the other percentage of the time. At what stack size would this become more a calling situation?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't quite understand what you're saying here with the folding equity comment... I assume that the 10% is when he folds his AK/AQ and it's not of clubs?

You're ahead of any one pair hand where he doesn't have a club, and close enough to even if he does have a club that the dead money in the pot makes it a +EV push anyway. Villain only has a pot-sized raise left, so this seems like a pretty easy push.

If the question is "what's my equity", though -- do you know how to peform this calculation?

-dB

JooWish622 · #8 07-07-2005, 02:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Id say my folding equity here is about 10 percent. I put him on AJ 10 percent of the time, AA/KK 60 percent. AK/AQ/JJ the other percentage of the time. At what stack size would this become more a calling situation?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't quite understand what you're saying here with the folding equity comment... I assume that the 10% is when he folds his AK/AQ and it's not of clubs?

You're ahead of any one pair hand where he doesn't have a club, and close enough to even if he does have a club that the dead money in the pot makes it a +EV push anyway. Villain only has a pot-sized raise left, so this seems like a pretty easy push.

If the question is "what's my equity", though -- do you know how to peform this calculation?

-dB

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I'm asking how to perform the calculation. Thanks for the reply in advance. Yeah, by the 10% folding equity, that was the two hands in my head that would fold to me, plus a clubless JJ. Am i even money with an overpair with a club in it?

dtbog · #9 07-07-2005, 04:06 PM

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clubless JJ.

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Top set is pretty good, even without a backdoor flush draw to go with it; I doubt he lays down the nuts. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I'm at work and busy, but I'll give you a very simple equity calculation:

You have AA, and the flop comes out K95. The pot is $200 before the flop, and your opponent is drunk and pushes all-in for $2000.

You decide that your opponent's hand range is the following:
40% AK
40% KK
20% QQ

...and you're ignoring suits.

Your chance of winning is:

(chance of AA holding up vs. AK) * (% he has AK)

plus

(chance of AA winning vs. KKK) * (% he has KK)

plus

(chance of AA holding up vs. QQ) * (% he has QQ)

Running out those numbers on http://www.twodimes.net/poker:

AA vs. AK = 91.41% to win
AA vs. KK = 08.59% to win
AA vs. QQ = 90.00% to win

So, your equity right now, according to the hand range that you specified, is:

(0.40 * 0.9141) + (0.40 * 0.0859) + (0.20 * 0.90) = 0.58.

So you should call, because you're ahead.

I'm sure you can see how to extrapolate this to your situation?

Obviously, pot odds can justify a call even if your strict equity to win is below 50%.

Watch out, though -- these calculations are only worth anything at all if your estimation of hand range is accurate. Don't fall into the trap of making up extra hands that your opponent could have in order to justify your call.

-dB

longwyfrmlbc · #10 07-07-2005, 04:13 PM

Are you sure you can't expand his hand range a bit more? It's 4-handed, he only min raised you preflop, and then he bets the exact size of the pot.

IMO, his min reraise opens up his hand range a bit because he might be setting you up to take away the pot if you miss. However, you hit it hard, and I would push. I think you can add 88 and 99, which will both fold to a flop push. These are both reasons why you have a lot of FE.

However, with his short stack he's calling with any J, and perhaps any pair with a draw out there (he did make a sketchy minraise)

Not quite sure, the hand IMO is a clear cut push but the FE confuses me...