From 4185 to broke in 2 hands.

[Myst]

Evaluate if both of my pushes were correct. Table image was very agressive since becoming big stack, but I had never shown any of my agressive all in pushes (except winning with QQ earlier to obtain my big stack).

***** Hand History for Game 2279344893 *****
NL Hold'em $50 Buy-in + $5 Entry Fee Trny:13491655 Level:9 Blinds(250/500) - Tuesday, June 28, 22:06:27 EDT 2005
Table Table 12122 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: Mystraised ( $4185 )
Seat 4: msnuts3 ( $1700 )
Seat 8: RoyalCrap ( $1375 )
Seat 10: Mulperi ( $2740 )
Trny:13491655 Level:9
Blinds(250/500)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Mystraised [ 5h 3s ]
RoyalCrap folds.
Mulperi folds.
Mystraised is all-In [3935]
msnuts3 is all-In [1200]
** Dealing Flop ** [ Jh, 8s, Td ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Th ]
** Dealing River ** [ Kc ]

#Game No : 2279347127
***** Hand History for Game 2279347127 *****
NL Hold'em $50 Buy-in + $5 Entry Fee Trny:13491655 Level:9 Blinds(250/500) - Tuesday, June 28, 22:06:48 EDT 2005
Table Table 12122 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: Mystraised ( $2485 )
Seat 4: msnuts3 ( $3400 )
Seat 8: RoyalCrap ( $1375 )
Seat 10: Mulperi ( $2740 )
Trny:13491655 Level:9
Blinds(250/500)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Mystraised [ Ac 5c ]
Mulperi folds.
Mystraised is all-In [2485]
msnuts3 is all-In [3150]
RoyalCrap folds.

[ChuckNorris]

LOL I'm Mulperi. I asked you something like "Mystraised, are you Myst from the forum?" in the chatbox and you just said "huh?" [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I'd play the hands just like you did... At least against typical opponents/without reads, can't remember how the players were like anymore.

[Myst]

Yeah, sorry about that. Didnt want for players to find out about our precious forums and realize that people actually THINK about poker.

Next time, say "brown trout" or something. Ill respond in kind.

[ChuckNorris]

Yeah, I understand. I don't think that "the forum" is very revealing to anyone though. Hopefully we won't see at the tables anymore [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[lastchance]

Could fold 53o in the first one, BB calls a wide range, and your FE isn't high.

Push A5s automatically.

[Myst]

[ QUOTE ]
Could fold 53o in the first one, BB calls a wide range, and your FE isn't high.

Push A5s automatically.

[/ QUOTE ]

How is my FE not high? Note stack sizes. If he folds, he is still at the same stack size as the other short stack, with the other short stack hitting the blind first.

Well, if he was a thinking person, thats what HE SHOULD think.

[lastchance]

Yeah, should notice that other stuff first. Having that t1375 stack increases your chance of getting a fold from almost zero to 70-80%, which should be enough to push this if your opponent thinks... BB doesn't have a sure "fold ITM," so it's not QQ+, but it should be tight enough if you haven't been lagging it up.

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Could fold 53o in the first one, BB calls a wide range, and your FE isn't high.

Push A5s automatically.

[/ QUOTE ]

How is my FE not high? Note stack sizes. If he folds, he is still at the same stack size as the other short stack, with the other short stack hitting the blind first.

Well, if he was a thinking person, thats what HE SHOULD think.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's nice to have SOMETHING playable if you get called. 53o is not. THis is yet another case of being a pushbot with a stack. Unless done VERY judciously, this kind of play will be a long-run loser for you.

[Myst]

[ QUOTE ]
It's nice to have SOMETHING playable if you get called. 53o is not. THis is yet another case of being a pushbot with a stack. Unless done VERY judciously, this kind of play will be a long-run loser for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, according to ICM, this is +EV even if he calls with 60% of top hands.

But, that aside, this is the 2nd time Ive done a +EV push according to ICM standards with a huge stack and busted out in 4th. Im thinking that with the high blinds, such moves, while +EV according to ICM, may really not mean much in terms of real dollars. What does increasing my percentage of the prize pool by 7.5% really mean? Does it increase my chances of winning by 7.5%? The way I look at it, my stack increasing by 4100 or 4800 doesnt really mean much in terms of the actual outcome of the tournament.. Im still going to have to win 1 or 2 allins once ITM, and the fact that I have 750 extra chips really doesnt change my position in the tournament dramatically.

What I DO know though, is that I can surely fold my way in the money. I am 100% certain of that to be the case, because the high blinds would have forced players to go all in with their A2, KT/junk hands to clash.

Its in these situations that I think ICM describing +EV situations in terms of percentage of prize pool can only go so far. Gigabet proves this to be the case when he makes moves that ICM clearly shows is -EV. Im buying more and more to the chip power argument, about evaluating whether the risk to your stack is enough to justify the reward (i.e. additional power to your chip stack).

I think in the above case, where I had a +EV push according to ICM, should have been folded, in retrospect, to that rationale in case. The risk of getting called 25-30% of the time and taking even a coinflip or even a 60% chance of winning is NOT enough to justify a stack that will NOT gain any chip power by winning (4100->4850), but loses a helluva lot of power by losing (4850->2600).

My two cents. 3,000+ tournaments, and I finally just starting to understand.

[lastchance]

7.5% of the prize pool is 7.5% of $500 (all the money every player puts in to the game)!!

If ICM says pushing this = 7.5% of the prize pool, I really don't think there's much else that could make me lay this down.

I don't push because there's no way my opponents aren't calling with J6o if they think I'm pushing any 2 at them.