$215: With all the 17%+ ROI winners, where are the losers coming from?

[AA suited]

ZJ, Curtains, Dali, Giga and probably a few others are getting 15%.

Since there are winners, there has to be losers since poker is a zero sum game.

How big is the pool of players at the $215's since these players are 8+ tabling?

[FatalError]

95% of online poker players lose in the long run, do the math

[skipperbob]

In the "long run" we're all dead [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[Benholio]

[ QUOTE ]
95% of online poker players lose in the long run, do the math

[/ QUOTE ]

How about YOU do the math. I'd like to see what magical equation gets you this oft bandied stat.

[Slim Pickens]

X: number of winning players in a tournament
Y: number of losing players in a tournament
a: average winning player $/tourn
b: average losing player $/tourn
R: rake $/tourn

Yb=Xa+R

Make up some (average) numbers for a and b and solve for Y/(X+Y).

Did I get this right? I did this on an envelope once and actually got about 90-95% losing for reasonable numbers for a and b. OK, so if I'm not retarded, using +20% ROI for the winning players, -20% for the losing players, and 2/22 for the rake, that gives me 2.5 winning players per tournament. I think -20% might be a little much for the losers, but I wouldn't know.

SlimP

[Degen]

i don't like this at all

there are people who fall all along that spectrum, winners don't always win 20% and losers don't always lose 20%

[Slim Pickens]

You can integrate over all winners to find the average winning value and over all losers to find the average losing value. 20% and 20% probably isn't right but I'm just saying that when you pick numbers and do the math, more people are losing because of the rake than you might initially think.

SlimP

[introv]

People play above their level all the time. Just look at the number of entrants in the final event of the WSOP. A lot of the top players profit doesn't come from the permanent pool of $200 players (although there will undoubtedly be some).

So the pool is very small with room for a few sharks and plenty of fishies.

[Sponger15SB]

[ QUOTE ]
poker is a zero sum game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong.

[gildwulf]

The game of poker is zero-sum when played in its pure form (ie play a 10 dollar buy-in with a couple of buddies and someone wins and someone loses). However, when you play against a house it becomes non-zero sum: the more you bet the smaller amount of winnings exist to divide amongst players.