TPWK against a calling station

[nietzreznor]

Stars .25/.50 (6max)

I am CO with 98s, and I raise it to $2 preflop (which is standard). Button folds and both blinds call. I have ~$46.00, the SB has ~$130, and the BB has ~$320. No real read on the SB (perhaps a bit on the loose side), but the BB is a total preflop calling station, and generally loose from the flop onwards.

Given that BB is such a calling station, I think that my preflop raise is questionable/bad, but I think that the postflop stuff is more intersting.

Flop ($6.00): 943r

SB bets $3, BB calls, I raise to $12, SB folds, BB thinks for a bit and calls.

Turn ($33.00): Q

BB checks, I bet $20, BB check-raises all-in, I call...


My thinking on the flop is that I am ahead here MOST of the time. If I get reraised on the flop, I am done, of course, but with a quite vulnerable holding I wanted to take it down now or at least get it HU. BB's call of my flop raise doesn't worry me too much--he may have me beat, but I think he calls with any PP or any piece of the board.

On the turn, I wasn't realy sure what to do. I think most of the time I am still ahead here, but I am not sure that he calls another big bet with something I beat. OTOH, I didn't want to check and give villain another chance at hitting a 5-outer; his hand range is wide enough that it would be difficult to tell whether or not he hit on the river.
When he c/r all-in, I think there is a good chance I am beat, but I was pretty sure I was pot-committed here, and I couldn't figure how the Q could have helped him. Additionally, there is a reasonable chance I'm ahead, this guy is pretty wacky.


Thoughts?

[RedRum]

If this guy's as much of a calling station as you say, I can't discount his call with 2 overs to your flop bet, quite possibly with QT-AQ. Your overbet might look like a steal here as well, at least to him. Q would scare me into slowing down, check calling a smallish turn/river, or check/folding to a big bet.

Drink More,
RedRum

[wtfsvi]

There are not a lot of draws out there, and you have over-represented your hand. You have to call the push since you allready have your stack in the middle, but I find it kinda crazy to not check behind on this turn against a calling station. (And probably check behind on the river too if checked to. I guess you can value bet though, if the river is safe (another queen comes to mind) and he's truly a calling station.)

[amoeba]

raise on the flop is good. you are representing overpair and this isn't a hand you want to go too far with. I would have raised to $9 just because its just as effective as $12 and actually looks a bit less suspicious since its not a huge raise. also it saves me some money if called.

on the turn, I think I check through. any bet and you are pot committed.

[nietzreznor]

[ QUOTE ]
on the turn, I think I check through. any bet and you are pot committed.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are probably right about this. What is your plan for the river, then? I feel like check/folding the river would be too weak here, but if a A,K,J comes, I may have to. Anything < 9 and I would probably call a reasonable bet here.

[kurto]

If your word choice to describe your opponent was accurate here (calling station), then you're spewing chips here. Calling stations don't reraise you all in without a monster.

[nietzreznor]

Most of you agree that checking the turn through is the best play. I am not going to disagree.

I have a question, though: Suppose, for simplicity's sake, that I was 100% sure that I was ahead on the flop. Additionally, I am 100% sure that my opponent is drawing to between 2-6 outs (he does not have a draw, he has either a small PP, a lower board pair with a live kicker, or 2 overs). Let us also assume that he will check to me on the turn whether he hits or misses. He will call/raise-all in every time he improves the turn, but will also sometimes (maybe like 20% or so) do this when he doesn't improve.

Should my play here always be to check behind? What additional factors would help me make this decision? If my checking behind induces him to bluff the river a large percentage of the time, this would be an argument for checking through. But if he didn't bluff the river, and didn't broaden his calling standards on the river, is there any benefit to giving him a free turn card when I am most likely ahead?

I'd be interested in hearing people's thoughts on this.

[amoeba]

do calling stations bluff big?

[nietzreznor]

[ QUOTE ]
do calling stations bluff big?

[/ QUOTE ]

Generally, no. Can't say for sure with this guy. But if my check won't get him to bluff the river, then wouldn't I want to bet the turn if I am ahead here *most* of the time?

[amoeba]

define most.

the times you are ahead, you win $20 extra ( I don't htink you are putting in a river push if he checks to you on river but I might be wrong), the times you are behind, you lose your remaining stack.

so are you ahead 2 times out of 3 and know that he'll call you the 2 times out of 3 that you are ahead?

sorry, math is off.

I thought you had more money left.