am i too tight? was this good QQ preflop laydown? (party $20+2)

[Unoriginalname]

***** Hand History for Game 2140767463 *****
50/100 TOURNEYTEXASHTGAMETABLE (NL) (TOURNAMENT 12729879) - WED JUN 01 20:43:32 EDT 2005
Table Table 14889 (Real Money) -- Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 1: milanman21 (1075)
Seat 3: tecf1fan (1090)
Seat 4: MajorJackAce (330)
Seat 6: skippy21 (1510)
Seat 7: eb816 (835)
Seat 8: ekpolo6 (725)
Seat 9: nteasyforme (335)
Seat 10: sharpies1027 (2100)
ekpolo6 posts small blind (25)
nteasyforme posts big blind (50)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to eb816 [ Qd, Qc ]
sharpies1027 raises (225) to 225
milanman21 folds.
tecf1fan raises (400) to 400
MajorJackAce folds.
skippy21 folds.
sharpies1027: good hand
eb816 folds.

I had no good reads due to some multi-tabling.

[spentrent]

QQ's not looking too good after that action in front, and you have no fold equity. I think it's a good fold.

[Shajen]

What was the buy in?

Edit: Christ, I must be going blind. It's right there in the title.

To be honest, I probably don't fold QQ here. I'd like to say I would, but I probably wouldn't. It's a leak I need to plug.

[Nottom]

I think I'd push. The opportunity to win a big pot att his point in the tourney is worth the risk that you might be behind. Plus its a 20, so you are going to be ahead most of the time.

[Laomedon]

This seems like a clear push to me at 20+2, am I wrong? Any reads on either player? Maybe if you had a stack of 2000, it would be a more difficult situation, but seriously, you have what seems to be a good opportunity to triple up. Original raiser could have AJ+ or 99+, reraiser could have 1010+ or AKo+ so you could be very behind but still... I've seen people do some nuts things at a 20+2, I think I would be pushing this more times then I fold it at that level.

[Karak567]

I only read the title of your post, I didn't even look at the hand.

And I can tell you just knowing it is a 20 + 2 and you have QQ - terrible laydown.

Don't lay QQ down pre-flop at a 22.

[Jonathan]

[ QUOTE ]


Don't lay QQ down pre-flop at a 22.

[/ QUOTE ]
How about KK?
If its level 1?

Suerte,
Jonathan

[Jonathan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


Don't lay QQ down pre-flop at a 22.

[/ QUOTE ]
How about KK?
If its level 1?



[/ QUOTE ]

My remark may come across as a bit sardonic, but its not
meant to be. I recently posted a hand with KK level 1.

The reason why my KK hand and also the original posters QQ
hand are interesting to me is that there appears to be
a contradiction between the advice given by some ("whaddya nuts??? PUSH!!") and the recent spate of statistics posts.
In several of these posts (".....I played 500 109's and here
are my stats", etc) The one thing that struck me was the
extremely low percentage of 10th and 9th place finishes. I
think that there were 3 of these pòsts where the combined
9th and 10th place finishes was < 5%. This struck me as
very very low.

So I wondered.....what are these posters doing with KK and QQ and JJ preflop? Do they fold immediately to a reraise?
If not, then I see no way that they can get their combined
10th and 9th place finishes below 6%.

At about the same time, there was a stats post from a newbie
seeking to improve his game where his combined 10th and 9th
finishes were around 18 or 20%. Everyone pointed out that
this was way too high, and suggested he tighten up quite
a bit. OK, fine....but 5%?

So how do you reconcile the 5% figures with the advice to
push QQ. This push, by the way, is in the face of a 4BB
prefop raise, followed by a second 4BB reraise. If I were
in OP's situation I would seriously consider laying this one
down, like he did.

I'm not sure thats the right play, but I am sure that pushing
here is inconsistent with the stats of some winning players
that have recently been posted here. And I wonder how the
proponents of push reconcile the two?

Suerte,
Jonathan

[mosdef]

i don't buy your argument that aggressive play of QQ-AA should lead to 9th-10th place finishes at least 6% of the time.

at the lower buyins (22 down) i think it's safe to say that at least 2 people have busted out by the start of level 4. so let's look at the probability of busting out in levels 1-3 because of pushing QQ-AA.

you have roughly a 75% chance of not even seeing QQ to AA by the end of level 3. the other 25% of the time, let's say you shove it immediately. IF you get called every time you would lose, i don't know, a third of the time maybe? in that case, you've busted roughly 9% of the time. BUT this assumes that your shove gets called every time, which clearly isn't going to happen, and it ignores the fact that you may get called by someone with a smaller stack and when you lose you don't bust out. even if you get called 1/2 the time, you're still talking about 4-5% bust out rate assuming that you are covered every time you're called.

anyway, i think that you're overestimating the number of times pushing a high pair will knock you out of the tournament.

also, last but not least, it is often correct to fold JJ to a reraise preflop. your post seemed to suggest that you think JJ should be played like QQ-AA.

[Jonathan]

[ QUOTE ]

anyway, i think that you're overestimating the number of times pushing a high pair will knock you out of the tournament.

also, last but not least, it is often correct to fold JJ to a reraise preflop. your post seemed to suggest that you think JJ should be played like QQ-AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

But you are only looking at pushing...what about calling as
in this QQ hand and the KK hand I posted elsewhere?

I agree with you concerning JJ....I did not mean to imply
that they were in the same class.

I dunno....while posting this I just got all in with QQ on
the first hand of a $22...got shown KK and was out. So
mabey its just been happening to me a little more than the
norm lately.

Suerte,
Jonathan