Who bets this turn?

Emoney · #1 06-09-2005, 03:02 AM

the PF 3-bettor is very lag preflop. so i thought the cold cap was alright. but that can also be discussed.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
4 folds, MP2 raises, MP3 3-bets, Hero caps, 3 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (13.40 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (8.20 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Hero....

JoshuaD · #2 06-09-2005, 03:05 AM

I think I tend to bet here. Considering all my outs to improve, the fold equity, and the ability to see a river showdown with a check behind outweighs the cost of getting check-raised. Even if it happens, you've got a likely 7 outs to improve to the best hand.

Emoney · #3 06-09-2005, 03:21 AM

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the fold equity

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that's the part i'm wondering about. is there any? both of opponents are PF raisers. i can't really think of anything they're letting go there.

JoshuaD · #4 06-09-2005, 03:37 AM

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the fold equity

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that's the part i'm wondering about. is there any? both of opponents are PF raisers. i can't really think of anything they're letting go there.

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You said the one guy is 3-betting thin, so you could also be betting for value here, against a hand like A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. The original PFR was 3-bet and capped, so he's gonna be playing pretty passive, and dumping alot of hands here on this turn.

You also could fold an offsuit AK, if you had it in their shoes, you'd probably dump here.

Any big pairs are probably going to hang around, JJ may check-raise, but all in all, I think it's a good bet.

Hoi Polloi · #5 06-09-2005, 07:46 AM

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I think I tend to bet here. Considering all my outs to improve, the fold equity, and the ability to see a river showdown with a check behind outweighs the cost of getting check-raised. Even if it happens, you've got a likely 7 outs to improve to the best hand.

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I'd probably play it this way and fold the river if the check/raiser bets into me UI. You capped pre-flop so I think keeping the pressure on opponents will pay dividends in long run--folding MP1's 88, for example.

WillyTrailer · #6 06-09-2005, 05:00 PM

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I think I tend to bet here... you've got a likely 7 outs to improve to the best hand.

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7? Well, you've got at least 8 outs to the nuts. But do you really think you're going to win the pot on the turn or are you value betting? I'm guessing there's an overpair or at least top pair out there some where that's not folding and that you're not beating. I realize that you're risking one bet here for a chance to win two from any opponent who calls as you're not betting or calling the river unimproved and you're hoping that they call your river bet when you do improve. But you're also opening up to being check raised when you can take a free card and possibly raise the river if you improve and get bet into.

-WT

gvibes · #7 06-09-2005, 05:19 PM

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I'm guessing there's an overpair or at least top pair out there some where that's not folding and that you're not beating.

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I see no evidence that hero is beat here.

JoshuaD · #8 06-09-2005, 05:38 PM

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I think I tend to bet here... you've got a likely 7 outs to improve to the best hand.

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7? Well, you've got at least 8 outs to the nuts. But do you really think you're going to win the pot on the turn or are you value betting? I'm guessing there's an overpair or at least top pair out there some where that's not folding and that you're not beating. I realize that you're risking one bet here for a chance to win two from any opponent who calls as you're not betting or calling the river unimproved and you're hoping that they call your river bet when you do improve. But you're also opening up to being check raised when you can take a free card and possibly raise the river if you improve and get bet into.

-WT

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You misqoted what I said. I said "If you get check-raised, you probably have 7 outs to a winner". I'm assuming that when you get check-raised here the villian has a flush or JJ the vast majority of the time. 7 is a good estimate of your outs.

Read my other posts to address your other questions.

WillyTrailer · #9 06-09-2005, 09:29 PM

umm....well, I apologize if I misquoted you. I'm now agree with you that betting the turn is a good idea. I was wrong before.

by the way. there's no doubt about having at least 8 outs. 7 is not a good estimate. you have 8 outs to the nuts. J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is on the board.

-WT

Catt · #10 06-09-2005, 09:57 PM

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by the way. there's no doubt about having at least 8 outs. 7 is not a good estimate. you have 8 outs to the nuts. J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is on the board.

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I'd go with an estimate of around 7 outs, but, regardless, you do not have a certain 8 outs on this board. Joshua's stated assumption when Hero is check-raised is that you are against a flush (only 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]s left) or against JJ (in which case the 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] makes Villain a full house). And although unlikely, the T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] could make someone a straight flush.