Villian with obvious set

[iceman5]

$5/$10 NL

4 limpers and I raise to $60 in the SB with AA. Kirderf is in the BB and calls. 2 other guys call.

Pot is $250. The flop comes T63 all diamonds. I have the Ad. I bet $150. Kirderf raises to $420. He might as well flip up his cards because its obvious he has a set. Its folded back to me. What do you do?

I started the hand with $1250 and he has me covered.

[thabadguy]

Will he lay down top set on a 4 flush board?
If yes..then fold.

[BobboFitos]

this is a math problem. if you're positive he has a set you have 11 outs. 9 are obvious, the other two are fairly obvious, so there's no point to try to call as he will be able to move in on the turn if you blank, and if a 4th diamond hits, just call to fill up and fold if unimproved.


Board: Td 6d 3d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 34.6465 % [ 00.35 00.00 ] { AsAd }
Hand 2: 65.3535 % [ 00.65 00.00 ] { 3h3c }

After your bet you have 1040. We assume if you play the hand the money is going in. He has you covered.
The pot has 250 in preflop, then +150 +150 call (and then ensuing raise, which we are under the assumption will end up all in) so 550.

If he never folds here (which is reasonable, although perhaps some would fold 33 fearing TT or something... so unlikely... easier to assume no folds) then the pot will have 550 + 1040x2 = 2630, you're putting in 1040 = ~40%. So it's a marginally -EV play go all in, so you should fold. If he folds sometimes pushing gains some merit. If he doesn't have a set (something like QQ [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]) pushing gains ALOT of merit. So use your judgement.

[piki]

I hate the idea of folding top set with NUT flsh drw to any bet.

[iceman5]

[ QUOTE ]
I hate the idea of folding top set with NUT flsh drw to any bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Its impossible to have top set and nut flush draw on the flop. You meant overpair and nutflush draw?

[piki]

[ QUOTE ]
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I hate the idea of folding top set with NUT flsh drw to any bet.

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Its impossible to have top set and nut flush draw on the flop. You meant overpair and nutflush draw?

[/ QUOTE ]I sit corrected [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[ggbman]

If villian has a set as hero suspects, then hero only has 9 outs because 2 diamonds will make the villian fill. If you are confident in your read, and villian is never messing around with KdTx, then this is an easy fold.

[amoeba]

what? no.

Which 2 diamonds will fill?

[Leptyne]

Clearly a slightly -EV situation. But you're only a slight dog. A fold is certainly correct, but a push has merit also. I think a call is out of the question. I admit to being heavily influenced by Brunson and I would push the flop raise. I'm clearly a fan of the aggressive move.

[warlockjd]

[ QUOTE ]
Clearly a slightly -EV situation. But you're only a slight dog. A fold is certainly correct, but a push has merit also. I think a call is out of the question. I admit to being heavily influenced by Brunson and I would push the flop raise. I'm clearly a fan of the aggressive move.

[/ QUOTE ]

Um, there's no fold equity here