I hate top pair mid kicker

TredWel · #1 06-03-2005, 09:26 AM

I think these type of hands, where I flop top pair with a questionable kicker, are my biggest leak right now. Comments appreciated.

MP2 and SB are fish, while MP3 is slightly loose but aggressive.

UltimateBet 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
4 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, 2 folds, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (4 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, SB calls.

Turn: (4 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, MP2 calls, MP3 raises, SB folds, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

River: (10 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks, MP3 bets, Hero folds, MP2 folds.

Final Pot: 11 BB

Rev. Good Will · #2 06-03-2005, 09:32 AM

I think there's too much in this pot to give it up like that on the river, especially since I put Villian on a wide range of hands here (note: I'm not giving him credit for an ace, ever)

topspin · #3 06-03-2005, 09:36 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think there's too much in this pot to give it up like that on the river, especially since I put Villian on a wide range of hands here (note: I'm not giving him credit for an ace, ever)

[/ QUOTE ]

He raised a blank on the turn. He's unlikely to be bluffing the ace unless he's got a great pattern mapper.

What "wide range of hands" do you have him on at the turn, and why?

iNsChris · #4 06-03-2005, 09:40 AM

He raises the 2(non scare card), So i put him on Kx?

No preflop raise so AK out the question maybe? Or hes just passive.

I'm calling the river everytime unless i have reads.

What do you put him on? Do you fold this river then?

Henke · #5 06-03-2005, 10:02 AM

What do you put him on? Do you fold this river then?

My guess is that villain has a set or two pairs. I'm fairly sure that hero is beaten over 90% of the time here, which makes a fold correct. However, next similar situation at the same table I would call, given that some observant opponent might have picked up on the fold.

atnels · #6 06-03-2005, 10:23 AM

Even if Hero is behind - which I don't think is automatic - to the hands you suggest, he has a decent number of outs to call the turn raise.

Villain called in MP3 after MP2 had limped. If he's loose and aggressive, I think we can safely rule out KK and AK, and probably KQ and 99. So, it is possible Hero is drawing dead to 77 or 22; plus drawing slim to K9 or KJ. However, Hero has outs against all possible 2 pairs:

K9: 3 tens = 3
K7: 3 tens, 3 nines = 6
K2: 3 tens, 3 nines, 3 sevens = 9

97: 2 kings, 3 tens, 3 twos = 8

If Hero is behind to KJ, only outs are the tens = 3

Pot is currently offering 1:8, which is okay especially considering you might even be ahead.

I'm still calling the river bet. I think you're good here more than 10% of the time.

topspin · #7 06-03-2005, 10:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
He raises the 2(non scare card), So i put him on Kx?

No preflop raise so AK out the question maybe? Or hes just passive.

I'm calling the river everytime unless i have reads.

What do you put him on?

[/ QUOTE ]

The 2 completes the rainbow, so he can't be semi-bluffing a draw he picked up. Unless villain is very aggressive, he's going to have at least top pair here when he raises. Would he raise with K2-K9? Again, I doubt it. I think two pair or a mis(slow)played set is more likely.

[ QUOTE ]
Do you fold this river then?

[/ QUOTE ]

Most of the time, we will be beat on the river. We call the turn because there's a chance villain turned two pair and we have many outs to beat/counterfeit that.

Calling the river would strictly be because of the "one bet/big pot" effect. 10BB is sort of borderline for me -- I'd fold this in a 6BB pot and call a 14BB one. I note that the majority of the posts are berating OP for folding as a "huge leak", and I think it's closer than everyone seems to think.

atnels · #8 06-03-2005, 10:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Calling the river would strictly be because of the "one bet/big pot" effect. 10BB is sort of borderline for me -- I'd fold this in a 6BB pot and call a 14BB one. I note that the majority of the posts are berating OP for folding as a "huge leak", and I think it's closer than everyone seems to think.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. I think that you'll be good ~10% of the time, but if you habitually back off TP/decent kicker at these limits you'll be loosing money.

einbert · #9 06-03-2005, 02:31 PM

The guy is a LAG. You can't fold here to a LAG, it's just not good poker.

krimson · #10 06-03-2005, 03:50 PM

If this situation is more or less even money to call or fold, shouldn't we lean towards a call? Going to showdown, seeing what villian was playing and having this information for the future is +EV.