Call with this strong draw?

[Kristian]

This situation occurred in a home game with the guys and caused some discussion:

6 out of 7 left, stacks vary from 1000-2000, I have ~1700, BB has ~1400. Blinds 30/60.

I raise to 150 UTG with [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q, called by BB only.

Flop: [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7

BB bets 100, I raise to 300, BB goes all-in.

There is now 1850 in the pot, and I need to pay up 950, giving me roughly 2-1 pot odds. If I win I get a handsome 3050 stack, if I lose I am crippled with 250.
My read is that he does not need to have a monster to make this play, so I count 10's, [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]'s and possibly A's as my outs, giving me an even 50% win chance. Assume my read is correct.

Can I fold this hand assuming I am on equal skill level with the rest of the table?
Can I fold it if I know I am the best player at the table by a fair but not huge margin?

The argument for folding would be that while I easily have pot odds to call, the tournament structure makes just staying in the tournament a high priority.
All comments appreciated.

[NYCNative]

I would call simply because your raise kind of made that what you have to do. I don't raise there, incidentally. I take the cheap card to draw at the nuts. If villain is as loose as you say, he'll pay you off when the thord diamond hits.

[Kristian]

I see your point. How strong to play a draw is a gray area for me. I probably tend to play them pretty strong most of the time, especially in a big pot heads up.

But the main point of discussion was whether or not a fold to his all-in could be a correct move under the circumstances mentioned.

[tigerite]

No, a fold can't be right. But as the above poster stated I would also just have called, rather than commit my tournament to a (fairly strong) draw.. draws are death.

[NYCNative]

[ QUOTE ]
How strong to play a draw is a gray area for me.

[/ QUOTE ] This is a nice Q&A on the subject.

[Creole]

Just call on the flop. He called the raise post flop so him hitting one of those overs is very possible. Why raise on the flop when all you have is a draw? I would raise the flop if it were rags, but not strong overs. You seem to have put your tourney life on the line with a draw. Next time I would check/call and try to hit the nuts or at least improve your hand.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
Why raise on the flop when all you have is a draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because it's a monster draw, very possibly to 15 outs. (3 aces, 3 non-diamond tens, 9 diamonds). This is plenty of hand. If you feel that you're not likely to get paid off when the draw comes, then trying to win the pot right here or get it all in is fine, in my opinion. I agree that probably a bigger raise is needed for this if you're going to raise here. Yes, even with 15 outs you're only 50-50 to win, but there's plenty of dead money in the pot by this time so it's a pretty good gamble.

[ QUOTE ]
I would raise the flop if it were rags, but not strong overs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero has an A, these are not overcards.

[ QUOTE ]
You seem to have put your tourney life on the line with a draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are tons of situations where I will happily "put my tourney life on the line with a draw." This is probably one of them. I'm not entirely sure where the piece of wisdom that this is such a horrendous thing comes from.

[37offsuit]

First off, yes, call. You have to be willing to make these calls if you want to make money in tourneys.

You raise to t150 and get called by the BB so there is t330 in the pot. He leads off for a weakish t100 (pot: t430). Why make a weak reraise here? Essentially, what you did was he bet 1/3 of the pot and then you reraise 1/2 the pot. This doesn't work as a free card play, as you found out. You either need to take the cheap card off as was suggested, or raise more to either get your opponent to fold (+EV) or get to see the last two cards for free. Given your description of your opponent, I doubt raising more will make him lay this down. He Likes his KdTx or what ever he has.

Re-evaluate on the turn.

[nokona13]

I saw an interesting point made by Matt Flynn over in the MHNL forum the other day on a similar strong draw hand. I think it's especially pertinent since this is a home game with guys you presumably play with quite a bit, so meta-game takes on some importance. Matt's point was that you can't only play your monsters strong, or you're way too easy to read. The easiest non-monster to play very strong correctly is a really strong draw (flush + str8, open or gut, flush + overs likely to win, etc). Obviously there's some wiggle room in that advice, but I think this is a situation where you need to basically play this like you had kings or jacks on the flop, ie raise ~3/4 pot, so call the 100 and put in say 400 more (pot is 530 with your call of the 100), for 500 total. In an online tourney say party 22s or 33s where you might feel you've got a big edge over the field and most of these players will never see you again, I think then you can strongly consider just calling the 100, assuming whatever donk is in the hand with you will still pay up if you hit a diamond, or especially a ten.

[Kristian]

Thank you for your opinions, everyone. It is now quite clear to me that the flop raise was a mistake, and the correct move on the flop is a close call between a (much) bigger raise and a call.

As for my actual question, I understand the consensus is that the way it was played, I could not correctly fold this hand. If you have patience for one last question, should you fold in the case you were much superior in skill to the other players? How much better would you need to be to make this fold?