Is my girlfriend right?

2+2 wannabe · #1 05-30-2005, 03:27 AM

she was playing on my account tonight - and we argued about this hand - how is it played?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, 3 folds, CO calls, Button calls, Hero raises, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, CO calls, Button calls

Flop: (12 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 players)
Hero bets, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, CO folds, Button folds.

Turn: (7.5 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

River: (10.5 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero ...

ClaytonN · #2 05-30-2005, 03:36 AM

Christ, who cares, you have a girlfriend who falls in the 1-out-of-every-100-girls-who-likes-poker crowd. Give yourself a high five.

That said, this is a tough one for me. This looks like a value bet. Yes, you could get owned with the 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on the end here, but villains here look like donk-ass retards that will call down with anything. FURTHERMORE, I don't even think they'd raise you on the end with anything but the ace of clubs.

BTW, something is screwy with your converter when it comes to "players involved in the pot at this point". It says 4 players on river when there are clearly only three.

Kumubou · #3 05-30-2005, 03:37 AM

Hero punches a small furry animal in frustration.

After doing so, he bets and calls a single raise. There are 9 cards that either plays holds out of 45 unknown cards: for each given card, the odds of it not being a crub are eighty percent. The odds of four cards not being a club are .8^4, or just under 41% -- which is probably your equity right now (QT makes a straight, but that's really unlikely).

With three players in, you have an equity edge -- the only question here is will anybody without a club pay you off? The other nice thing is that a bet might scare a really small club out, which would be a huge win if he currently has the best hand.

-K

ClaytonN · #4 05-30-2005, 03:38 AM

[ QUOTE ]
With three players in, you have an equity edge -- the only question here is will anybody without a club pay you off?

[/ QUOTE ]

Definitely

[ QUOTE ]
The other nice thing is that a bet might scare a really small club out, which would be a huge win if he currently has the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Forgot about that. Good point.

SteveL91 · #5 05-30-2005, 03:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The other nice thing is that a bet might scare a really small club out, which would be a huge win if he currently has the best hand.

-K

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure about this. If someone was chasing this hand to the river with a weak club, I can't imagine them folding for one bet; two bets is a possibility, but by then, it's a moot point I guess. After all, this scenario is what they were (likely) hunting after.

2+2 wannabe · #6 05-30-2005, 03:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Hero punches a small furry animal in frustration.

[/ QUOTE ]

done and done

[ QUOTE ]
After doing so, he bets and calls a single raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

what's your rationale behind betting AND calling a raise?

hehe our lines didn't include that one

we have:
bet/fold
check/call

Kumubou · #7 05-30-2005, 04:00 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If someone was chasing this hand to the river with a weak club, I can't imagine them folding for one bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm talking about absolutely pathetic clubs -- like someone holding the nut low flush. I doubt even fish would chase that -- maybe not (or maybe they'll just call down, because that's what they do).

What is the biggest card you would expect a reasonable player to fold for one bet? A Ten? 9? 8? You aren't likely to get rid of any paint (especially when the K and J are already out).

[ QUOTE ]
what's your rationale behind betting AND calling a raise?

[/ QUOTE ]
Betting I already explained -- as ugly as this board is, you still have an equity edge.

Calling a single raise is much thinner, but there are a couple of reasons:

-A thinking player with a hand not a flush may raise in hopes of peacing both the other player out (in an attempt to avoid overcalls) and you (hoping you either had a made hand on the flop or a small flush that got pizowned by the four-flush, knowing that a weaker player will fold to a raise on this board).

-A donk might bluff-raise, and the pot here is largish. I think it's large enough that the odds of a bluff (8%) are significant enough to throw in a crying call.

-K

Jakesta · #8 05-30-2005, 04:04 AM

Good reasoning, Kumobou.

I agree with your post, and I'm changing my recommendation to match yours.

Bet-call is the best line here.

SteveL91 · #9 05-30-2005, 04:09 AM

[ QUOTE ]

I'm talking about absolutely pathetic clubs -- like someone holding the nut low flush. I doubt even fish would chase that -- maybe not (or maybe they'll just call down, because that's what they do).

What is the biggest card you would expect a reasonable player to fold for one bet? A Ten? 9? 8? You aren't likely to get rid of any paint (especially when the K and J are already out).

-K

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, flip it around: What hand with a weak club would a reasonable player still be in the hand with? I honestly can't think of any. I just don't think someone who decided to chase with whatever hand they had will fold for one bet on the river when their miracle (might have) came through.

The only hands I could see a reasonable player with are things like JT and QT; maybe hands like 78 or T9, but the former is a stretch because in this scenario, it would have to be off-suit and I don't know that a reasonable player would play 78o. *shrugs*

Shillx · #10 05-30-2005, 04:16 AM

The other nice thing is that a bet might scare a really small club out,

This is crazy. I'm calling with a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in this spot and I'm a tight player. The pot is effin big and you have a flush...you are not folding for one bet.

Drunk Brad