QQ faces AKx flop

Maurader1 · #1 05-29-2005, 01:05 AM

Less than 10 hands with UTG+1
SB is loose passive who folds the turn (or earlier) if he doesn't hit

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, 2 folds, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero calls, SB folds.

Turn: (4.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 5.50 BB

Am I too weak for not putting in a raise on the flop? I called hoping to pick up a club on the turn.

Jakesta · #2 05-29-2005, 01:06 AM

Hands like this are tough.

Unless he is betting a flush draw, you are almost certainly drawing to two outs. Some might think this is weak-tight, but I fold this flop.

ArturiusX · #3 05-29-2005, 01:21 AM

I fold the flop. He's betting into a pfr, he probably has a hand.

Maurader1 · #4 05-29-2005, 01:29 AM

Can I not see a turn getting 8:1 + implied odds for my two backdoor draws and two Q outs?

smartalecc5 · #5 05-29-2005, 01:38 AM

personally - thoough I am no pro (see the hands I just posted) I raise the flop. If he 3bets, I cal and then fold the turn.

If he just calls and
A) bets the turn I fold.
b) checks the turn, I bet.

IF the pot isn't won by now by someone... I don't know good luck
[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Maurader1 · #6 05-29-2005, 01:44 AM

My pointer was veeeeeery close to the raise button because of the aggressiveness factor gained from reading 2+2, trust me...but for this hand, I just didn't think he could be betting a flush draw or lower pp...could he be?

If he just called my three bet, and checked the turn, I would not be comfortable betting the turn. I figure that even if he has a weak A/K, he'll call me down.

smartalecc5 · #7 05-29-2005, 01:45 AM

Ya, maybe it is something I should look into for my own game is playing these own situations.

Aaron W. · #8 05-29-2005, 02:39 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Can I not see a turn getting 8:1 + implied odds for my two backdoor draws and two Q outs?

[/ QUOTE ]

How much implied odds do you think you're getting here?

Suppose you make 6 BB profit on the turn and river when you hit your set. In this case, that's getting villain to put in 3 bets on the turn and river.

So 1/23 of the time, you win the pot (4 BB) and another 6 BB.
The other 22/23 of the time, you lose .5 BB on your call.

EV = 1/23 * 10 BB - 22/23 * .5 BB = -1/23 BB

Now ask yourself how likely it really is to even get 6 BB out of villain (and even if both players call the flop bet). If you want to believe your backdoor draws have any good implied odds, you can include their value in the extreme over-estimate of getting 6 BB back on the turn and river. This pot is small and you've got nowhere near the implied odds to make money chasing.

You seem to have a gap in understanding somewhere, and I think it's that you haven't sat down with numbers enough (or thought through enough situations) to have any real intuition about pot size and implied odds.

Jakesta · #9 05-29-2005, 02:40 AM

You're wicked smaht!

I agree with your post 100%. I liked seeing the mathematical explanation which I could not provide in my above recommendation to fold the flop.

Maurader1 · #10 05-29-2005, 12:43 PM

During the hand I have to admit I didn't do all this thinking. But thinking about it right now, I figure that my immediate odds for the .5BB call is 8:1, and assuming I can get 1BB on the turn and river, then my implied odds is 12:1 for the .5BB call. If I discount the bdfd to 1 out, and a bdsd to 1 out, then I have 4 outs, requiring only 10.5:1 to call (I'm cheating reading off odds chart)

Having said that, my analysis is probably wrong, and would appreciate it if you could help me understand why.

Thanks!