Pushing trash 5-handed, level 6 - but there's one player DC

[pergesu]

PattyMcFatty and I have been discussing this hand quite a bit. Running this through SNG PT says it's a clear push. But a huge consideration (which I failed to make while playing the hand), is that one of the players has been disconnected. Patty says that him being disconnected should make me more inclined to fold this, as I have one less opponent to deal with in subsequent hands. But I also have no idea how long this guy will be disconnected for. Interested in hearing opinions.



***** Hand History for Game 2115146378 *****
NL Hold'em $10 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee Trny:12580927 Level:6 Blinds(150/300) - Friday, May 27, 19:10:53 EDT 2005
Table Table 11477 (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 1: manning99 ( $1080 )
Seat 5: declouet ( $715 )
Seat 3: HIGSTER ( $1895 )
Seat 7: frozensanka ( $1960 )
Seat 8: faldo2224 ( $2350 )
Trny:12580927 Level:6
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to frozensanka [ 9s 3c ]
>You have options at Table 11265 Table!.
manning99 has been reconnected and has 20 seconds to act.
>You have options at Table 11265 Table!.
>You have options at Table 11265 Table!.
.
manning99 could not respond in time.(disconnected)
manning99 folds.
HIGSTER folds.
declouet folds.
frozensanka is all-In [1810]
>You have options at Table 11265 Table!.
faldo2224 calls [1660].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 5s, 7d, Tc ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Jh ]
** Dealing River ** [ 5h ]
frozensanka shows [ 9s, 3c ] a pair of fives.
faldo2224 shows [ Ac, Kd ] a pair of fives.
faldo2224 wins 3920 chips from the main pot with a pair of fives with ace kicker.
frozensanka finished in fifth place.
frozensanka has left the table.
The Small Blind left the table. The Dealer button remains in place.
Game #2115151127 starts.

[DasLeben]

I went over this hand too, and still agree with the push. That is, of course, if BB has decent calling standards.

[PattyMcFatty]

I think you defenitely have assume he has lower standards, if you have no read. Just cause its 10+1

note - i dont ever play party poker. I am not accustomed to structures where you are forced to play like this. However, I think there is a multitude of reasons why he should fold here.. will share in a few

[DasLeben]

Well, I don't think that putting him on the "M" category in eastbay's program is the way to go (I doubt he'll be calling that loose), so I came up with a calling range of my own: 22+,A7o+,K9s+,KTo+,QTo+. Granted that's off the top of my head, but it seems reasonable enough. Using that range, it's +0.5% EV to push here, which I think it just too substantial to pass up at this blind level.

As for the disconnected player, there's no guarantee that he doesn't reconnect next hand. Because of that, I play this like he simply folded.

[tjh]

His disconnect has no substantial effect.

He has plenty of chips, reconnected and disconnected during this hand. He will not likely be gone for long. Plenty of chips also.

[PattyMcFatty]

I'll do this by deciphiring the arguement behind pushing. The idea is that its +EV and is necessary to mantain and not become in danger of bubbling out. Well, if he folds, hes sitting on 2k on the button Vs. a big stack and DC. One possibility is, big stack UTG raises (which pressures small to pick up a hand) and its folded to DC(this is good for hero). At the worst, small stack pushes with any two into hero, SB and DC BB. So , shorty has to pick up a hand VS UTG Bigstack, SB and hero. So in all likelyhood, short gets called here or forced to fold by bigstack. Even if he doesn't, and somehow its folded to DC, small stack has improved to 1k but DC has lost chips. Even IF (this is worst case) hero loses next round, he still has over 1500 chips to play with, with the DC player effectively gone. This is all assuming he gets no chance to steal, picks up no hands, or small stack isnt blinded and forced to pick up a hand this very round. Because if he does fold the subsequent hand, hes stuck in BB SUPER SHORT, and WILL be pressured. Also remember, if UTG and SS fold to hero next hand, he can miniraise because SB cannot play here unless its a push (if it is, he can fold and have 1.3k while small has like 300 in BB) So even IN worst case scenario, hes still 4 handed, around second stack. In the long run, I think folding here goes advantage to hero because stealing this 300 ultimately does not do THAT MUCH to win him the tourney.

[PattyMcFatty]

The disconnect has a very substantial effect. If hes gone for just one more hand, every thing I pointed out still breaks down.

[microbet]

I'm not sure I follow, but those all sound like good reasons for BB to have a tighter calling range.

I know, I know, it's and $11 and people aren't supposed to be thinking anything much, but when someone disconnects near the money, everyone's first thought is "let's coast into the money."

[PattyMcFatty]

My point is not about BB tightness. Point is I think hero has too many things going his way to risk an all in here. I dont think EV is enough to outweigh my previously mentioned factors..

[microbet]

Rereading my post, it's not so clear, but I knew that you were advocating a fold. I was just saying your reasons for folding are also reasons for BB to fold, making a push by the hero more profitable.