AKo misses

[dfscott]

UTG seemed solid. He played very few hands, but played them aggressively. Is this an easy spot to bail or do I let UTG put me all-in?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (8 handed) converter

MP2 (t1565)
CO (t640)
Hero (t700)
SB (t610)
BB (t1035)
UTG (t915)
UTG+1 (t480)
MP1 (t2055)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls t30, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls t30, CO calls t30, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t275</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls t245, MP2 folds, CO folds.

Flop: (t655) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets t350</font>, Hero ???

[AlcateL]

i fold, you're up against a pair more than AQ AJ

[kyro]

If he is truly a solid player, I can't think of any hand he has that you beat.

[citanul]

er, imo, utg can't be that solid, he did limp call off 1/3 of his stack.

given your preflop action, i'd have to push on the flop. you left yourself with ~450 behind, even though i would sort of expect to see 99-JJ or AK or something like that when i don't see my opponent holding AA-QQ here. i just feel that you can't put yourself in this spot with 400 odd chips and then fold, and when called by those middle hands or whatever, you've got some outs.

having said that, i'd probably raise less preflop, maybe to about 150, to give myself more options on the flop.

citanul

edit: depending on your buyin level, i'd also expect to be ahead a fair amount of the time when called, not that much, but sometimes.

[kyro]

I think QQ-AA check-raises this flop. I really can't see AK, AQ or KQ. I put villain squarely on 99-JJ with an emphasis on JJ.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
I think QQ-AA check-raises this flop. I really can't see AK, AQ or KQ. I put villain squarely on 99-JJ with an emphasis on JJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

my problem is that i think that while you are likely behind, and i'm agreeing with a medium pair assessment, you're about 25% to win the hand against a medium pair, and i think you might need to take the odds given you, though they are worse than the odds you need, because being as short as you would be otherwise is not great.

however, i don't see why if you think that QQ-AA would checkraise this flop that 99-JJ would not as well, it seems intuitive that both sets of hands should be played pretty much the same way in this spot.

citanul

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
however, i don't see why if you think that QQ-AA would checkraise this flop that 99-JJ would not as well, it seems intuitive that both sets of hands should be played pretty much the same way in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

The first three have a much better chance of being ahead of another overpair than the second three. I'm not saying this is correct thinking, but merely what villain may be thinking. The problem is (which I realized afterwards) is that this makes a push all in more correct. Right?

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
my problem is that i think that while you are likely behind, and i'm agreeing with a medium pair assessment, you're about 25% to win the hand against a medium pair, and i think you might need to take the odds given you, though they are worse than the odds you need, because being as short as you would be otherwise is not great.

however, i don't see why if you think that QQ-AA would checkraise this flop that 99-JJ would not as well, it seems intuitive that both sets of hands should be played pretty much the same way in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like your post in general but disagree with two things:

1)You can still relatively easily come back from a t450 stack at level 2, so if he flashed me JJ, as opposed to some chance of AQ, I'd fold;

2)JJ doesn't checkraise here because a terrified, weak/tight opponent who limp/calls JJ early just wants the AK to fold already.

(2.5) People who limp JJ PF are weak/tight pansies and frankly deserve what they get when the AK feels pot committed, calls and sucks out on the river, as opposed to when he calls a raise and folds on the flop.)

(3)Why the hell did you raise that much PF)

[citanul]

adanthar,

i agree with you on all fronts. in part my reasoning is/was trying to follow through with the line that the hero chooses by making the raise so big preflop.

you're on a bit of a tear lately about playing JJ preflop. do you raise in lp with jj behind 4-5 limpers in lvl or 2? i find this to be more interesting than the utg question, personally.

i guess that yeah, 450 is not so horrible to come back from, particularly if this is an 800 chip game (i can't remember if it is right now, but i think it is). i've been spending a lot of my time lately that i've been spending thinking about the game thinking about spots where you hit "inflection points" or whatnot as the short stack, and should take less than good odds to try to get your way back into the game as a reasonable stack.

but that's for another thread on another day.

good to see you posting a bit more in teh last couple days.

citanul

[nokona13]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
my problem is that i think that while you are likely behind, and i'm agreeing with a medium pair assessment, you're about 25% to win the hand against a medium pair, and i think you might need to take the odds given you, though they are worse than the odds you need, because being as short as you would be otherwise is not great.

however, i don't see why if you think that QQ-AA would checkraise this flop that 99-JJ would not as well, it seems intuitive that both sets of hands should be played pretty much the same way in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like your post in general but disagree with two things:

1)You can still relatively easily come back from a t450 stack at level 2, so if he flashed me JJ, as opposed to some chance of AQ, I'd fold;

2)JJ doesn't checkraise here because a terrified, weak/tight opponent who limp/calls JJ early just wants the AK to fold already.

(2.5) People who limp JJ PF are weak/tight pansies and frankly deserve what they get when the AK feels pot committed, calls and sucks out on the river, as opposed to when he calls a raise and folds on the flop.)

(3)Why the hell did you raise that much PF)

[/ QUOTE ]

adanthar, I'm interested in (2) and (2.5) here. UTG on level 2, I'm still in fold 22-44 and limp 55-JJ mode. Though I might c/r push JJ vs. a BB raise to 275, thinking the odds of AK-AJ are pretty big at this buy in. Do you consistently raise JJ UTG on level 2? Do you find that optimal?