Stars $650 WSOP sat. Turned top 2, insta-call?

[PennDisc]

This situation came up in an unraised pot, early in the second round of the Stars Sunday WSOP satellite. My read on the villain is that he won't make a big bluff or semibluff in this spot, he must believe he has the best hand. I haven't seen him overbet like this before, and he had strong hands when making raises earlier. He did like to limp often and see flops in the early rounds. I took my time thinking about this call, but should it be a very easy decision?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) converter

MP3 (t1625)
CO (t2895)
Button (t2730)
SB (t2155)
Hero (t2825)
UTG (t2125)
UTG+1 (t3385)
MP1 (t2475)
MP2 (t2285)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls t30, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, CO calls t30, Button calls t30, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (t150) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t120</font>, UTG folds, CO calls t120, Button folds, SB folds.

Turn: (t390) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t270</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to t2745</font>, Hero ??

Anyone raise this preflop knowing I'll be playing the rest of the hand out of position? I had seen UTG limp in the same position with KK earlier so I didn't want to face a reraise or get in a tough spot with 1 pair later out of position.

Anyway, on the turn, I'm losing to TJ or a set. KK and QQ are unlikely given my hand and the preflop action. I also thought that a set would have raised the flop given the possible flush draw and the number of players. But if the villain was slowplaying a set on the flop, would he then overbet like crazy on the turn? Or what are the chances a guy calls a gutshot for implied odds, but then makes a ridiculous all-in raise after hitting? His bet to me seems like he really wants me out of the pot. What do you put the villain on here?

[schwza]

i have a hard time putting him on a range just because i think his line sucks regardless of what he has. a badly played Q9?

i think it's gotta be a call though. 44/99 doesn't have any reason to believe you're strong enough to call this push.

[DonT77]

He had A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and he caught one of his 13 outs on the river after you called. Am I close?

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
My read on the villain is that he won't make a big bluff or semibluff in this spot, he must believe he has the best hand

[/ QUOTE ]

c'mon... nobody gives incorrect reads on 2+2.

[PennDisc]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My read on the villain is that he won't make a big bluff or semibluff in this spot, he must believe he has the best hand

[/ QUOTE ]

c'mon... nobody gives incorrect reads on 2+2.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I don't know how many people do this.. but I would find it somewhat pointless to post a read just to come back later and say that the villain had a hand I thought he couldn't have based on my read. Plus, if I came back and said "Guys I called and he was on a complete bluff so I doubled up." I'd look like the idiot for posting in the first place.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My read on the villain is that he won't make a big bluff or semibluff in this spot, he must believe he has the best hand

[/ QUOTE ]

c'mon... nobody gives incorrect reads on 2+2.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I don't know how many people do this.. but I would find it somewhat pointless to post a read just to come back later and say that the villain had a hand I thought he couldn't have based on my read. Plus, if I came back and said "Guys I called and he was on a complete bluff so I doubled up." I'd look like the idiot for posting in the first place.

[/ QUOTE ]

i understand what you're saying, but i think it's valid to post hands where you're surprised by the villain's holding. a read should be along the lines of "i'm confident he won't overbet w/ a semi-bluff" but posters should recognize that it's not impossible.

sometimes i feel like "reads" are determined after the fact when the villain shows his cards - more like hints to the repliers than the hero's actual frame of mind at the time.

[PennDisc]

[ QUOTE ]
sometimes i feel like "reads" are determined after the fact when the villain shows his cards - more like hints to the repliers than the hero's actual frame of mind at the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

This I agree with although I don't try to do it intentionally. Or sometimes after the fact it's hard to remember how strongly you felt about this read beforehand. After seeing this particular play, and subsequent plays later on, you develop a read on a player beyond what you had in the hand but include that in your description.

[DonT77]

I've posted a bad read before [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]


(I guess this also rules out my A4 guess.)

[DonT77]

And we never see a bad beat post disguised as a 'what would you have done' post either - [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
And we never see a bad beat post disguised as a 'what would you have done' post either - [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

um, except what you said happens 100000 times a day and what i said never happens. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]