When value betting gets expensive

[MRBAA]

Party 2-4. I have AJs in the SB and two limp to me. I raise, bb folds, limpers call.

3 to the flop for 6.5sb

Flop comes:

Q93 rainbow

I bet, one call, one fold. We go to the turn with 4bb in the pot.

Turn comes (A) Q93. I bet, limper raises I call.

8 bb in pot, river comes

(5)AQ93

I check, limper bets, I call, he shows ATo, and MHIG.

Now this guy if he's observant at all (or if he uses PT) must see I'm not loose/maniacal. So when I call his turn raise, it's time to take the free card on the river IMHO. This is the flip side of Bob T's earlier post about valuebetting MORE. Against solid players who are showing resistance, it can be wise to value bet less. Here, there are darn few hands I can call with here that don't beat his. And many more that do -- especially given my preflop raise. Or am I too chicken with my checkin'?

[Klepton]

you played the hand fine

don't worry about how other players play, most of em are donks

[PotatoStew]

[ QUOTE ]
Against solid players who are showing resistance, it can be wise to value bet less...Or am I too chicken with my checkin'?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I think this makes a lot of sense. I usually try to base my value betting on player reads when possible. If my opponent is loose, I'll value bet a lot more often than I will against someone who's tight and usually showing down good hands.

[MRBAA]

Wasn't asking about my play -- was noting that there's a time when value betting the river is a -EV proposition against solid players who have shown resistance, whereas it would be profitable against loose/calling stations.

[Nate tha' Great]

Not that I'd play ATo this way if I were your opponent, but I'd value-bet the river without giving it a second thought, even against an opponent I recognized to be fairly good.

[MRBAA]

"Turn comes (A) Q93. I bet, limper raises I call."

When I, a TAG, call the turn c/r on this board after raising preflop from the SB with two limpers in and betting the flop, what can I possibly have that AT beats? KK? If you value bet this river against me with top pair, so/so kicker in this situation, Nate, I believe you are costing yourself money.

[cmwck]

I see your point here. You do have to be more careful in value betting against good players.

Example: Two players limp, and a good player in MP also limps. Folded to you in the BB. You check with K9o

Flop is Ks 4d 9s

You bet, two limpers call, and the good player calls.

Turn is 3c

You bet, two folds, and the good player calls.

River is 8h

What would he possibly call with and lose?

Do we check/call or check/fold?

What if the river had been the Qs?

Sorry if this is a bad example ; I'm just trying to get at the general strategy.

[PotatoStew]

[ QUOTE ]
Wasn't asking about my play -- was noting that there's a time when value betting the river is a -EV proposition against solid players who have shown resistance, whereas it would be profitable against loose/calling stations.

[/ QUOTE ]

I assume this was directed at Klepton? I wasn't commenting on the actual hand.

[HajiShirazu]

I agree with you here, but you're making an incorrect assumption that your opponent is a thinking player who uses stuff like PT and reads forum posts about value betting. Furthermore while this is a mistake, this isn't even close to being as bad as a lot of the plays that I have seen in the Party 2/4. In this situation peoplepay off with hands like KQ and KK all the time because they are bad and/or becuase people bluff a lot.

[MRBAA]

My real point with this post -- which I obviously didn't make as clear as I intended -- is that value betting can be a mistake against solid players in some situations. Bob T. recently made an excellent post about value betting more against horrible players in the 2-4 games. But against better players, there are often situations where it's best to take a free showdown when they call your bet or raise on the turn.