Do you have the odds to call? (Question 1)

[Demana]

This is the first in a series of questions I'll be posting about calling various streets based on odds and player reads.

Question 1
You are in a $1/2 limit game.

It is heads up and you hold K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

The board is 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

There is $6 in the pot and your opponent has bet $2.

Assume your opponent will only bet when they have a made hand. If a scare card comes, like the third to a flush, they will fold and not pay it off.

[SheridanCat]

I voted no. Why?

The odds against hitting your hand are just over 4:1 and the pot is offering 4:1. There are no implied odds since we know he'll fold to the flush card. So, no call. That doesn't mean I'd fold either.

I would seriously consider raising since this guy seems to offer greater than normal fold equity. Additionally, since I have no implied odds with this guy, I want the money in now - before the scare card comes.

Regards,

T

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Heads-up against an aggressive player you have some implied odds. Say he has QQ and the river is Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I can see that earning you at least 1BB on the river in the long run, probably closer to 1.5

[SheridanCat]

[ QUOTE ]
Heads-up against an aggressive player you have some implied odds. Say he has QQ and the river is Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I can see that earning you at least 1BB on the river in the long run, probably closer to 1.5

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm, judging by the information given I was assuming this was not an aggressive opponent. I sure see your point that if he makes a set and I make a flush, he's going to pay me off (assuming you meant Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]), but I think it's a very thin profit in the long run. That is, there's a very slight chance of him improving enough to pay off my flush given the description by the OP.

That's why I wanted to make my profit now on the turn. Some scenarios:

<ul type="square">[*]I call, flush card comes, I bet he folds. I make 1 bet.
[*]I raise, he calls, flush card comes, I bet he folds. I make 2 bets.
[*]I call, flush does not come, he bets, I fold. I lose 1 bet.
[*]I raise, flush does not come, he bets, I fold. I lose 2 bets.
[*]I raise, he folds. I win 1 bet.[/list]I think the fold equity of this situation make a raise just slightly better than a call.

This assumes I have discounted the outstanding kings as outs by putting him on an Ace.

I agree with Kurn's statement that's it's close either way. It may be so close it doesn't really matter whether you fold, call or raise. I expect there's a flaw in my logic somewhere above, so please point it out if you see it.

Regards,

T

[Demana]

[ QUOTE ]
Heads-up against an aggressive player you have some implied odds. Say he has QQ and the river is Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I can see that earning you at least 1BB on the river in the long run, probably closer to 1.5

[/ QUOTE ]

Making a set on the river is at least a 23:1 long shot (assuming no one folded one of your cards). You cannot count on that happening.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Making a set on the river is at least a 23:1 long shot (assuming no one folded one of your cards). You cannot count on that happening.

I disagree. You can absolutely count on this happening ~4% of the time.

In addition, if he has QQ, you have 12 outs, not 9, so clearly you have pot odds to call, and 4% of the time, you have additional implied odds.

Just because a given outcome is unlikely does not mean that those outcomes do not add to your equity.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Depend on what made hand your opponent holds. I'd say you have odds to call against the range of hands that bets here, but it's close. Neither choice here is very wrong.

[PuckNPoker]

Well since your decisions is based on player reads and the only read you give is about the river payoff it is kind of a hard question (like pf action, flop action,position of the villian in relation to the blinds).

But against a range of hands, HU, I would make this call. He could have less than top pair and your KJ are live (but discounted). All you are looking for is breakeven odds to call.

[AngusThermopyle]

If a scare card comes, like the third to a flush, they will fold and not pay it off.

So a "scare card" like a 5, 4, 3, or 8 will allow a bluff on my part to take the pot?

[AmarilloJim1]

I see it as very simple. At this point, you have nothing. The pot is only offering you even money, so a 35% draw is not worth it...fold.