TDL: bluff raising on the river

[randomstumbl]

I'm starting out by saying that I'm not sure if this is a solid play or not. I'd love to hear what other people have to say about this hand. So, feel free to critique any part of the hand.

My read on AAAAA is that he's been playing too many hands lately and is somewhat LAG. Also, a few hands previously I suspect he "bluffed" me on the river when I paired up and folded because the pot was small. I definetly think this player is willing to make tricky plays. Also, his value betting is sporadic. The worst I've seen him bet with is an 87, but I've also seen him check some 87's.

AAAAA is at seat 0 with $258.50.
Hero is at seat 1 with $250.50.
CCCCC is at seat 4 with $351.
DDDDD is at seat 5 with $278.50.
The button is at seat 1.

CCCCC posts the small blind of $1.
DDDDD posts the big blind of $3.


Hero: 6h Ts 7h 2d Jh


First Round:

AAAAA raises to $6. Hero re-raises to
$9. CCCCC folds. DDDDD folds. AAAAA
calls.

AAAAA takes 2 cards. Hero takes 2 cards.


AAAAA: -- -- -- -- --
Hero: 6h 7h 2d 5c 2c

Second Round:

AAAA checks. Hero bets $3. AAAAA calls.

AAAAA takes 2 cards. Hero takes 1 card.


AAAAA: -- -- -- -- --
Hero: 6h 7h 2d 5c As

Third Round:

AAAAA checks. Hero bets $6. AAAAA
calls.

AAAAA takes 1 card. Hero takes 1 card.


AAAAA: -- -- -- -- --
Hero: 6h 7h 2d 5c 6s

Final Round:

AAAAA bets $6. Hero raises to $12.

[lucas9000]

here's my initial thoughts, which may be completely wrong but i'm kind of typing as i think:

it seems to me that the only hand he value bets in that spot is a 7 or probably an 85 and 86. with an 87 through a j, he will probably check-call if he thinks you might bluff at it. worse than a j and he probably bets to bluff you out, in which case he has to fold to a raise unless he has a strong read that you will bluff-raise with a pair. i guess the big question-mark here is: what is your table image? if you've been playing tight, and haven't gotten caught getting out of line, your bluff-raise is probably a very good move, provided you think he'll bet and fold to a raise on a bluff.

going into the final round of betting there's about $48 in the pot, i think. he's certainly getting great odds to call your raise (his pot odds at that point are 11:1, unless my math is all jacked up). so, for this move to pay off for you i think you need a great read that he'll bluff the river and then fold to the raise.

i'm not sure if i said anythign helpful, and i hope if i said some dumb [censored] that someone will correct me [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[MarkGritter]

I like the opening 3-bet on the button, and the 2nd and 3rd round look standard.

But I really, really don't like this raise unless you have a super-tight table image. If I count right there is $58 in the pot, he's getting close to 10:1 odds to call. Knowing that Villian will bluff is not the same as knowing he's willing to fold.

(I don't do well on my river value betting yet, and get stubborn when I shouldn't. So if I were Villian you would just be screwed, I'd definitely look you up with anything I was betting here. I need to work on value-betting my J's and T's when the situation is right, in which case I might be more willing to fold.)

I think it is probably more profitable to call Villian's bluffs than to try to outplay him at the river like this. But maybe I'm just weak-tight.

[randomstumbl]

I knew I'd forget to put in some information I used to make the decision, I just didn't know what it'd be. I've played fairly tight since this player sat down. On the river in particular, I haven't bet with the worst hand yet. And the only hand I've raised with has been a 76542 and a 76432. Also, I've checked with a pair on the end a few times and had it shown down.

I'll add some comments later about your analysis, but I'd like to hear what anyone else has to say first.

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]

(I don't do well on my river value betting yet, and get stubborn when I shouldn't. So if I were Villian you would just be screwed, I'd definitely look you up with anything I was betting here. I need to work on value-betting my J's and T's when the situation is right, in which case I might be more willing to fold.)


[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are leaving a lot of money on the table if you are not lead bluffing some rivers, especially where both you and villain took a card. I know this was a big leak in my games not too long ago, and since I have changed my river play I think my game has improved dramatically.

[DeathDonkey]

I love it.

-DeathDonkey

[timprov]

I don't love it, don't hate it. I certainly think it's fine, even if he'll call you with a J or Q -- most of your value here is coming from getting him to fold pairs smaller than yours.

[Luv2DriveTT]

I haven't seen many players fold to a river raise. I don't like it unless you know your opponent intimately.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[fnord_too]

I really like it against the player you described. If he has any bluff in him, he is betting this river with a whole lot of hands he won't call a raise with but still beat you (since the pot is so big). I think you really need to make this play against someone who likes to bluff. Once you get caught making a play like this, or snap off a river bluff with something like a king or worse, you will be amazed at the sharp decrease in shots taken at you.

But even without meta game considerations, this is a solid play against a player who will bluff at big pot when you both took a card. Oh, another meta game thing, once the table sees you are capable of making a play like this, you can value bet more hands and will get paid off more often.

nh.

[randomstumbl]

One of the big reasons I made this move was to stop him from stealing so much. Normally I just end up calling with ace high and that ends a lot of the bluffing, but I'd been bricking like crazy on the river which is why I ended up using this move. I wasn't sure if it was that good though because I was worried he could call with some of the hands he bluffs with. Of course, it all worked out on this hand.

The meta-game benefits where something I hadn't explicitly thought about, but they're probably a larger benefit than even winning the pot. After this hand, the player switched from LAG on the river to LAP which I'm assuming is better for me.

Oh, one more thought, someone earlier commented that they didn't think this move would work because of the size of the pot. I think this move is only really worth while when going after a big pot. It only has to work occasionally to break even and it gives me free showdowns from here on out. With a smaller pot, it has to work a lot more often. Additionally, think of the range of hands he'll bluff with here...most of them are pairs or very high cards. Assuming he's a smart player, he'll only bluff with his worst hands. So, he's betting because he doesn't think he can win a showdown. I think there is some range of hands he can then call the raise with, but not very many (queen high to a pair of twos maybe?). Alright, I've rambled on enough, hopefully this makes sense.