Would you push this?

[Bigwig]

NOTE--THE BLINDS ARE GOING UP ON THE VERY NEXT HAND.

Party $50.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (6 handed) converter

BB (t1335)
UTG (t655)
Hero (t830)
CO (t1430)
Button (t3220)
SB (t2530)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t830 (All-In)</font>

[Scuba Chuck]

This seems like an awfully easy question.

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
This seems like an awfully easy question.

[/ QUOTE ]

It is?

A couple of days ago I posted a thread where I pushed all-in with KJs from only one seat earlier with an almost identical stack and got an overwhelming response of 'no.' The only difference being I still had about 3 hands until the blinds went up. I can't see that these two hands are THAT far apart. That's why I'm asking.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
It is?

A couple of days ago I posted a thread where I pushed all-in with KJs from only one seat earlier with an almost identical stack and got an overwhelming response of 'no.' The only difference being I still had about 3 hands until the blinds went up. I can't see that these two hands are THAT far apart. That's why I'm asking.

[/ QUOTE ]

But it's soooted this time. JK

I don't remember the post, but I'll guess a couple of things.
So, in your other post, you'd get hit by the blinds right, but they'd only be t100, not t200. Is that right?

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It is?

A couple of days ago I posted a thread where I pushed all-in with KJs from only one seat earlier with an almost identical stack and got an overwhelming response of 'no.' The only difference being I still had about 3 hands until the blinds went up. I can't see that these two hands are THAT far apart. That's why I'm asking.

[/ QUOTE ]

But it's soooted this time. JK

I don't remember the post, but I'll guess a couple of things.
So, in your other post, you'd get hit by the blinds right, but they'd only be t100, not t200. Is that right?

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

In the other hand I had KJsooooooted. I was one seat earlier. And I had about 70 more chips. The blinds still had 3-4 hands left though, I believe. Maybe 2. Maybe 5. I couldn't find the hand history.

Whatever the case, KJs is better than QJs. This I know.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Whatever the case, KJs is better than QJs. This I know.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is your leak. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Then the difference is the blinds. Getting hit with t100 vs t200 is quite a difference, IMO. You can endure the first, but the latter is too painful.

[C M Burns]

the ev calculator says it is plus ev only if all of the players call you w/ 77+ or a9+. If you make one of them loose to any ace any pair or kj+, then it says -ev.

So it is only correct if all are very tight, and knowing the players at theis level that is very unlikley, making this a -ev play. it is too many players to bet into for too little reward.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
the ev calculator says it is plus ev only if all of the players call you w/ 77+ or a9+. If you make one of them loose to any ace any pair or kj+, then it says -ev.

So it is only correct if all are very tight, and knowing the players at theis level that is very unlikley, making this a -ev play. it is too many players to bet into for too little reward.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now think about whether or not it's a less -EV play than folding here...

You have to evaluate all of your options, not just whether pushing seems slightly good/slightly bad.

Yugoslav
<font color="white">who folds here generally</font>

[tech]

Also, it doesn't take into account the increase in blinds, which is an important factor here IMO. Once hero hits the blinds, his FE is basically gone.

[deathpotato]

ICM calc doesn't take into account the increasing blinds, which are very important in this decision, I think if this is +$EV with tight ranges while ignoring the increasing blinds, it is +$EV with looser ranges if we consider the increasing blinds.