Implied value and draws

BZ_Zorro · #1 05-08-2005, 03:43 AM

Does implied value make it ok to call a pot sized bet on a draw?

Just had a conversation with a marine who said it was...he ended up threatening to "talk to his IT buddies" and get me drafted. Neither or us is giving a quarter, so we're gonna let the experts decide. He wanted to bet me $100 that your opinion would be in favor of him, but said to forget it later on.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) converter

UTG+1 ($109.6)
UTG+2 ($221.97)
MP1 ($68.5)
Hero ($87.5)
MP3 ($176.02)
CO ($98.5)
Button ($145.3)
SB ($177.8)
BB ($83.1)
UTG ($103.75)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $1, 2 folds, Hero calls $1, MP3 calls $1, 2 folds, SB (poster) completes, BB raises to $3, UTG+1 calls $3, Hero calls $3, MP3 calls $3, SB folds.

Flop: ($17) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $15, MP3 folds, BB folds, UTG+1 calls $15.

Turn: ($47) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero goes all in, UTG+1 calls $68.50.

River: ($115.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: $115.50

Results in white below: 
UTG+1 has 9s Ts (straight, ten high).
Hero has 6h 6d (full house, sixes full of sevens).
Outcome: Hero wins $115.50. 

Two questions:
Is calling a pot sized bet with his hand a good play?
If he somehow expected me to go all in on the turn, was it a good play?

-Skeme- · #2 05-08-2005, 03:49 AM

It depends. The stacks need to be deep enough for your call to be correct. You need to have a decent draw. Position is nice. He was double gutted so that probably qualifies as a decent draw. His draw is pretty concealed also so it'd probably get paid off. He got it in with the best of it.

I'm not math savvy enough to add it all up. Someone else probably can.

Dignan · #3 05-08-2005, 03:55 AM

1. No
2. No

-Skeme- · #4 05-08-2005, 03:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
1. No
2. No

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm fairly certain you're wrong. Maybe not in this exact situation, but calling pot bets with OESDs or double gutters with deep stacks isn't wrong.

creedofhubris · #5 05-08-2005, 07:16 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1. No
2. No

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm fairly certain you're wrong. Maybe not in this exact situation, but calling pot bets with OESDs or double gutters with deep stacks isn't wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are 5:1 to hit your OESD. You are getting 2:1 calling a pot-sized bet. That means, if you hit, over the course of the hand, he needs to pay you off more than 3x the bet you just called, to make your call correct.

That's it, that's all you need to know. If you're certain he will pay you off a lot, you can call a pot bet.

This is often considered a bad play, because how can you be sure?

bkholdem · #6 05-08-2005, 01:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1. No
2. No

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm fairly certain you're wrong. Maybe not in this exact situation, but calling pot bets with OESDs or double gutters with deep stacks isn't wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are 5:1 to hit your OESD. You are getting 2:1 calling a pot-sized bet. That means, if you hit, over the course of the hand, he needs to pay you off more than 3x the bet you just called, to make your call correct.

That's it, that's all you need to know. If you're certain he will pay you off a lot, you can call a pot bet.

This is often considered a bad play, because how can you be sure?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would just like to make a few points. I don't know if you can ever be 'sure' but doesn't the looseness and tenacity of your opponent factor into the equasion.

Also, another factor is having position. If there is a potential flush draw out this could add significanlty to your 'outs' (representing). You could also get in big trouble this way so the more you know your opponent the better you may be able to determine if conditions such as these will be favorable to you.

Additionally, the pot size bet may be a continuation bet. Mine often are. It is also possible that you have 1 or 2 overs (although this example doesn't seem to be a case in which this would be likely).

Is you opponent very agressive? Will he fire a second barrell as another continuation bet? So there may be times that you will get to see the river for free as well.

How able is you opponent in releasing hands (how experienced are they)?

These points may not be primary factors but I think they are factors.

-Skeme- · #7 05-08-2005, 05:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You are 5:1 to hit your OESD. You are getting 2:1 calling a pot-sized bet. That means, if you hit, over the course of the hand, he needs to pay you off more than 3x the bet you just called, to make your call correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then Villain made a good play.

mscags · #8 05-08-2005, 03:59 AM

When you add in his implied odds he was getting something around 100:15 which is more like 6:1 which is more than enough for a double gut shot or open ended straight draw. However even though it worked out in the end, I think it is an incorrect call unless he is positive that he can get the rest of your money.

-Skeme- · #9 05-08-2005, 04:01 AM

When you say "it worked out in the end" I assume you mean he got it all in when he still had best hand?

Brian462 · #10 05-08-2005, 07:24 AM

His call is bad I think. He has alot of ground to make up on later streets whenever he makes his hand, and if he knows he is winning your entire stack every time he gets there it's still not that profitable. Add in all the times he makes his hand and you fold, and those times he makes his hand and loses and it becomes a fairly -EV play.

If your stacks were bigger it would be a better play.