3-way calling action on the bubble

[Gramps]

At first glance this call probably looks totally flammable (and may still be), but here it goes. My assumptions in making it were that:

(a) UTG could be pushing a pretty wide range here with his "biggest stack" [though this is the first bubble hand as a short stack just got eliminated];

(b) the button may very well think UTG is pushing any two, and probably knows that he's going to have to make a stand first (before I have to) - i.e. his call doesn't necessarily mean a premium hand;

(c) if the button beats UTG, he's in 3rd at 2,330 and I'm at 1,055 with a little fold equity (maybe), and two hands to push.

(d) if UTG beats the button, me and my 1,055 chips will finish 3rd the vast majority of the time.

Still too loose, or no?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter

UTG (t4240)
Button (t940)
Hero (t1205)
BB (t3615)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t4240 (All-In)</font>, Button calls t940 (All-In), Hero calls t1055 (All-In), <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

If the call is too loose, where does the "call/fold threshold" lie here and why? Any of the above assumptions likely to be incorrect?

[Rojosox]

That is the worst EV hand i've ever seen

[The Yugoslavian]

I actually sorta like it, [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

Ummmm, but yeah, I generally would feel better with a nicer hand. But as it is, you're covering kings and eights (and hearts!) which are prolly live helpin u knock off the short stack and if you 'get lucky' you're in great position for 1st.

This hopefully will be easy to run the math on once Eastbay breaks us off Push-O-Meter version: menage a trois.

Yugoslav

[Bigwig]

I don't like this call at all.

[Rojosox]

what happens when leader reveals K10, the other guy called with A9 .... now how do you feel? better pray for that qj10 board

[The Yugoslavian]

What if they both have 32o?

Yugoslav

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
what happens when leader reveals K10, the other guy called with A9 .... now how do you feel? better pray for that qj10 board

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, if I knew the leader had KT, and the button A9, a call would be clearly wrong. But when you give each player an appropriate range of hands, match K9s against them, and take into consideration the variables in play and the risk/reward of calling, then no, it's not "clearly" wrong.

If the button doesn't win this 3-way pot, I get no worse than 3rd. The times I call and button beats me and UTG both, yes, I'm worse off by calling than by folding (obviously)...but if I'd of stayed out of the way, in those situations I'm still more than a 2:1 chip dog to 3rd place - meaning I'm not putting a risk that much.

Plus, there will be a fair % of the time when I pig the whole thing, taking &gt; 3,000 chips - and some of those times if I'd folded, the button would have beaten UTG.

Not that you can't argue it's wrong to call, but "clearly wrong" means you're clearly missing all the variables involved.

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]


(b) the button may very well think UTG is pushing any two, and probably knows that he's going to have to make a stand first (before I have to) - i.e. his call doesn't necessarily mean a premium hand;

Any of the above assumptions likely to be incorrect?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, "B" is the worst assumption of all in my opinion. Even bad SNG players realize when they get short that they would rather push than call. Also, they realize that somebody else may have bad calling standards like they do, so maybe one of the players behind will call and get beat.

This dude usually has a hand here. Your call is really bad from a chipEV standpoint, and from a $EV standpoint it may be as bad a bubble play as you can make.

Irieguy

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
Your call is really bad from a chipEV standpoint, and from a $EV standpoint it may be as bad a bubble play as you can make.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that chip EV it's definitely a clear loser, and it looks pretty fishy at first. But I think there's a lot of variables that $EV-wise makes it at least close, if not correct to call.

-I have the button covered (if I didn't, clear fold - having the button outchipped is everything), and he has to beat me and UTG both for me not to get at least 3rd right there. I believe K9s is better on average than UTG's hand, and while probably a dog to the button's range of hands, not a huge dog.

-If I fold and the button wins I'm somewhat up sh-t creek anyhow - I'm outchipped more than 2:1 by 3rd place and I only have 3.5 BB - it's not like I'm risking a whole lot by calling. If UTG beats the button, then I will get 3rd at absolute worst, whether I'm in the hand or not (my presence means if UTG wins, I get 3rd). So...I'm not putting a whole lot at risk by jumping in there.

-If I fold and UTG wins (okay, I'm in top-3 at least), I have 3.5 BB and am outchipped 3:1 by 2nd place, meaning I'll get 3rd the vast majority of the time anyhow. So...the times I call, UTG pigs the whole thing, and I am eliminated in 3rd...it's not like I was putting a great shot at 1st/2nd on the line...

-I think by me calling, the button wins the pot ~40% of the time (based on his supposed range of hands and UTG's supposed range of hands vs. K9s). So...I get 3rd at worst about 60% of the time, and a little over half that time I pig the whole friggin pot and have &gt; 3,000 chips to battle for 1st/2nd. And once in a while in the 40% or so where the button wins, I'll beat UTG, still have ~600 chips and make a longshot comeback to get ITM (jacks up my $EV of calling just a smidge).

The benefit of folding is that if by calling I would have finished 4th (button beating me and UTG both), I still have some chips to try and crack the top-3. However, because now I'm such a short stack, I don't think I have a great chance at placing, so taking the safe route isn't some clear (or even likley) path to ITM.

that makes it a possible +$EV call IMO (though I'm having trouble finding anyone that agrees so far). Yada-yada.

As far as the button's calling standards, I see a lot of players (in the $215s) call with any Ace/pair/other assortment of cards here - they know they have to make a stand first, and a bullying UTG is a good player to do it against (wide range of hands, plus a blinds overlay here). Obviously, if he has a "real hand," he's calling with it, but I think the range isn't too narrow. Maybe not as wide as I'm assuming, but at least wider than a good pair/good Ace.

If you give the button any Ace, any pair, two suited cards ten or higher, KJo and KQo and UTG and random hand, K9s pigs the pot 1/3 of the time, with the button 42% and UTG 25%.

If you take K9s out of that mix, the button wins 62.5% of the time.

I think UTG is probably using some selection criteria, so 40%/30%/30% is probably closer to reality.

I've been listenting to too much Zeppelin again. Ramble on..er..over.

[valenzuela]

are u high?