Bad Fold? Call Down?

[Rob Blackburn]

Should I have called the 3rd bet here? Then called down the river? Maybe not raised that turn?

UTG+1 was VP over 70(I had 27 hands on him), MP was VP 14(53 hands on him).

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button folds, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (7.75 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 3-bets</font>, MP3 calls, Hero folds.

[shark6]

Against a guy with VPIP of 70%, I call down to the turn 3-bet.

True, you are beaten a majority of the time here. But, I think you have odds that this is a clueless player trying to pull something.

[Pokey]

VP isn't the important statistic here; aggression is. How often do these two raise pre-flop? What is their average aggression level?

Assuming <font color="red">UTG+1</font> is LAG, you cap the turn and come out betting on the river. If, however, he's LPP, you can fold the turn reraise.

Unless he's SUPER-passive, <font color="red">MP3</font> doesn't have the straight. The only one possible would be the QJ, and he didn't bet this hand as though that's what he had. Also, calling two more on the turn implies he's not just on a flush draw. I'd guess he's got AT or some such.

<font color="red">UTG+1</font> is obviously your concern. What plays like this? If he's super-passive, he could literally have AA. If he's super-aggressive, he could have anything up to and including 76o, A9, T8, 77, etc. You can't fold your kings against a super aggressive player here, but you can walk away without a second though if he's passive.

Can you post the PFR% and AvgAgg for these players, please?

[Rob Blackburn]

UTG+1-PFR%=0.00 AvgAGG=0.83(.33Flop/.60Turn/5.0Riv)

MP-PFR%=8.82 AvgAGG=1.60(2.00F/1.50T/1.0R)

[ErrantNight]

he's sufficiently passive that i can't go so far as to scream bloody murder that you folded the probable loser here on the turn... but your sample size with this guy is so frickin' small, and this pot is so big... and potentially he'll make this play with 2-pair or something ridiculous against which you have beaucoup outs... being an overcaller is what makes me say this fold isn't horrendous, but you are closing the action in a ginormous pot.



just to note: i reserve the right to be wrong about the horrendousness of the fold. it could be that bad, i haven't done any sort of mathematical analysis, and i'm not currently looking at the hand.

yeah, you're getting 1:15 here, peel one off. if this is bet/raised coming at me i'd fold, but i'd be prepared to overcall again on the river. if you had 227 hands you could probably fold getting effectively 1:9 to call down on the turn and being uncertain whether you can safely raise a miracle K on the river.

[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG+1-PFR%=0.00 AvgAGG=0.83(.33Flop/.60Turn/5.0Riv)

[/ QUOTE ]

70% VPIP, 0% PFR, AvgAGG 0.83? Fish don't play this way without hands that have you beaten. He has a straight and you have 0 outs. Swear and fold.

[ErrantNight]

that's over 27 hands

[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]
that's over 27 hands

[/ QUOTE ]

Not enough to separate a TAG from a TPP, sure, but we've got 70% VPIP. This guy's seen 20 hands and hasn't felt the need to PFR or play any of them aggressively. Is it possible he's a maniac? Sure, but it's nowhere near likely. Chances are that OP's read is good and this hand is dead. If I'm wrong once in a rare while, so be it. When I'm right, I save 2 BBs, and that's good enough for me.

[Harv72b]

Every fiber of my being tells me that UTG+1 is holding QJ, and you're drawing dead. MP3 might be on a flush draw, or he might be holding something like JTs; I'm not too worried about him.

All that being said, I'd call down. UTG+1 could also have something as simple as T9 or T8, giving you 8 outs to a winner on the river (although the heart outs are iffy). He could also have AT.

[CostaRicaBill]

What is the turn raise accomplishing after MP3 has already called UTG+1's turn bet? You're not getting MP3 to fold so you're not really protecting your hand and on this board you are going to be looking at 2 pair or a straight a lot of the time. I would probably just call down unless you think that a raise would make them both check to you on the river where you could take a free showdown if you didn't improve. Is this weak?