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#1
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I think this is beyond normal variance and I need to take a break. Luckily I ran good for a long time and I am still ahead for the year but I think this requires a stop and think about it. Next to the last column is hours per session.
![]() That's eight losers out of nine sessions and down $1,182 in 28.75 hours, that's just over -$41 per hour. My standard deviation per Statking is $153 per hour but that is only over the 56 hours I have loaded into Statking. I thought about taking a break about the middle of this month but decided I wanted to play through my downswing. Maybe normal variance will account for this many losing sessions in a row but a break can't hurt. The money isn't an issue because it is all from previous wins and doesn't change my standard of living in the slightest, I am worried about my game. |
#2
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I notice that this downturn began around the same time that you got that fool shirt. I think I'd burn it if I were you.
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#3
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Only wore it once and I am pretty sure it isn't the shirt's fault. Actually the downturn started when I switched from the sporty grey tweed hat to the straw $6.95 Super Walmart special but I bet that isn't a major factor either.
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#4
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Your clothing could have more to do with it than you think. I play better in certain seat in B&M not becaue of any superstition but becasue I spend a lot of energy struggling to see from certain seats.
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#5
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Probably not, but you can't be too careful. I don't think you have to actually wear a shirt like that for it to be bad karma.
Also, buy in for more, and be inclined to reload if you get short-stacked, as long as the game is good and you're playing well. I also think that playing short sessions is just fine. |
#6
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Well, you should be able to figure out if this could fall within normal variance by using your SD. I think this sort of calculation is better done if you are using data from just one game, but I'll give it a shot anyways.
So, if I'm doing my math right, you are something like 95% likely to be within 2 SDs of your true mean. Lets suppose that you are beating this set of games for rougly $10/hr (which is probably high, because that'd be hard to make at 3-6). After 28.75 hours you would expect to be +$287.5. The low end of variance has you losing: sqrt(28.75) * 2 * 153 = $1640 So, $287.5 - $1640 = $-1352.5. If I did my math right, this means that you could be a $10/hr winner and still be down even more than you are. Also note that I used 2 SDs from the mean, while Mason, in GTOT, uses 3 SDs. If you used 3, that means you could potentially be down as much as $2174. Anyways, my point is that I think these results are definately possible given your SD. I agree with you, though, that taking a break might be prudent - losing 8 out 9 times is hard psychologically and after a run like that I know I'd probably wouldn't be playing my best poker. |
#7
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Discalimer: I am not qualified to critique anyone's results but my own and cannot do the math. Furthermore, what I say may be stupid and irrelevent and have nothing whatsoever to do with results.
But....I am wondering if your sessions are comparatively short to other players sessions. Not that anything matters but the number of hands played in the long term, but is there any possibility of "manufactured losses" as I believe Caro puts it? Where I play B&M, table texture changes often and it is easy for me to know when I am up against a group I probably shouldn't be up against. Sometimes the ones I'd rather not have at my table (and there are few) are just passing through to the bigger tables and the game turns fishy again. My point is, which may have been obscured by my rambling, that I would feel seriously crippled by these short sessions. That may very well be just me. If I know there is no hope, fine, call it a night at 3 hours. Since I only play B&M on the weekends for the most part, that 3 hours of playing a marginally playable table is hugely offset when the players rotate in and out and I find myself in an incredibly +EV situation. It may not come until 3am when I'm down a rack (or more) and have been sitting there for 5 hours waiting for this perfect chemical makeup of human beings much dumber than me to congregate and fill each of the eight seats, but it usually comes. Now that I think about it, could my wins be manufactured? Maybe. But I have the patience to sit there and wait for that moment. This is exactly why I don't stop by for a couple hours on my way home from work. I know I only have a couple hours and there is no way I could get in a groove and "make it happen" in such a short amount of time. But that's just me and this post is probably useless. Onaflag............ |
#8
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Hey steamboatin!
I think it's good to take a break every now and then, and study your game. For what it's worth: Months ago in Tunica (when I met you), you played with a friend of mine. His thoughts on your game: Way too loose/passive. Calling station. This was only 1 session, but I respect his opinion. Do not mean to be critical. Hopefully just a little food for thought. Good luck! JTrout |
#9
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I have tightened up since then but may still be to loose. This last session, I went so long with out playing a hand that the other players were commenting on how long it had been since I played a hand.
I haven't playing for very long and I know I still have a long way to go. I appreciate the feedback because it is very difficult for me to step back and analyze my own play. If I wasn't willing to listen to the responses, I wouldn't have made this post. |
#10
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[ QUOTE ]
I have tightened up since then but may still be to loose. This last session, I went so long with out playing a hand that the other players were commenting on how long it had been since I played a hand. [/ QUOTE ] That is a GOOD problem to have! But pre-flop is the easy part.. post flop is where its gets hard. In my last thread I neglected to mention that I was a winning player financially when I had my "awakening". Just because you are a winning player online doesn't automatically mean you have the "Skills to pay the Billz", I am proof of that, I was clueless compared to where I am now yet I made a profit anyway. I really stand by my suggestion of spending time posting in the micro limits and /or small stakes forums... what many of us call variance is more often than not sub-optimal play at the levels you (and I) are playing at. I think its the best sollution, countless Small Stakes posters can't be wrong! TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] |
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