Nut Straight on Turn

[KaneKungFu123]

3 Players see:

Flop: K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Turn: J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

There is $250 in the Pot. SB pushes in $2,000. You have K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. You have $1800 left.

[diddle]

just a math problem

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
just a math problem

[/ QUOTE ]

Off the top of my head, I'd guess he only needs to be freerolling about 25% of the time for this to be a fold. I'll let someone else work out the real number.

[imperious]

[ QUOTE ]
Off the top of my head, I'd guess he only needs to be freerolling about 25% of the time for this to be a fold. I'll let someone else work out the real number.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just a quick question Diablo

Is this an online "off the top of my head..." ie 30-45 seconds thinking time, or an "into the tank" and come up with...about 25%... you might do in a live game?

Personally, I can't do it even remotely that quickly online but would have a pretty good idea how close it was live after a couple of mins. Maybe this is what seperates the 5/10 player from the 25/50 online?

[Ulysses]

That was a couple of seconds, hmmmm, feels like about 25-30%, number. I was honestly very happy to see that the actual number turned out to be 27%.

I definitely believe that a key element to NL success is having a good sense of your equity in all sorts of situations.

[Rotating Rabbit]

Diablo's a clever guy but partygirluk makes the calculation look un-necessarily arduous.

Just think we're going to win 125 or lose 1800. Think 1800=1200+600 is roughly 10+4 times 125. So we need to draw 14 times for each loss. He's got a 1 in 5 of hitting, so if he has the 4-flush 1/3 of the time he wins 1/15th of the time. Which is about right, so 33% is a good approximation. Certainly good enough to know we should definitely fold.

Dont ever use a calculator.

[anduril]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
just a math problem

[/ QUOTE ]

Off the top of my head, I'd guess he only needs to be freerolling about 25% of the time for this to be a fold. I'll let someone else work out the real number.

[/ QUOTE ]

elaborate please. I know you didn't do the math but how did you estimate?

[JaBlue]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
just a math problem

[/ QUOTE ]

Off the top of my head, I'd guess he only needs to be freerolling about 25% of the time for this to be a fold. I'll let someone else work out the real number.

[/ QUOTE ]

elaborate please. I know you didn't do the math but how did you estimate?

[/ QUOTE ]

he guessed based on previous experience and poker knowledge

[Yeti]

Fold.

I love the push. Been waiting ages for one of these to come up.

[Rotating Rabbit]

Yeah the push is really great