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#1
04-21-2005, 02:29 PM
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variance......or i suck.
seriously, how long can these downswings last? i'm goin on about 8K hands and 100bb's at 2/4. i moved up and this happens. not looking for sympathy because i know everyone here expierences variance, just wondering what the ceiling is on these downswings. 10K hands, 20? i just want this damn thing to be over!
edit: i may be in some seriously denial about my ability to beat 2/4 all together, but thats another story. i've heard for months on here how soft of a game 2/4 is supposed to be compared to 1/2. if i can crush the 1/2 game, what other factors could be causing my losses at 2/4? 
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#2
04-21-2005, 02:38 PM
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Re: variance......or i suck.
[ QUOTE ]
what other factors could be causing my losses at 2/4? [/ QUOTE ] What about the "tilt factor"? If it's really getting to you (by the tone of your post this seems to be the case) take some time off. Evaluate your play, post some hands, read some books, etc, etc... It also can be valuable to complete disengage yourself from poker for awhile. Take a few days to a week where you don't think about poker at all.
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#5
04-21-2005, 05:26 PM
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Re: variance......or i suck.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] what other factors could be causing my losses at 2/4? [/ QUOTE ] What about the "tilt factor"? If it's really getting to you (by the tone of your post this seems to be the case) take some time off. Evaluate your play, post some hands, read some books, etc, etc... It also can be valuable to complete disengage yourself from poker for awhile. Take a few days to a week where you don't think about poker at all. [/ QUOTE ] When i have a session or two go down the drain, i always say to myself ill take off from the game...but then i realize its alll virtual and i get right back on and have a kick ass session...When its B&M its a totally different thing, i can keep myself away. I'm not the greatest player but i have not had a downswing affect me more then 1k hands...you have to step WAY back and adjust your game if its not changing around. taking the GOOD advice from the friendly 2+2'r should help but it wont be the only factor deciding if you can pull this around. Best advice i can give: GO GET YOURSELF SOME POOTANG, it gets the edge off and its +EV
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#6
04-21-2005, 02:42 PM
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Re: variance......or i suck.
You certainly don't have enough hands to know if you suck yet. Neither 100BB or 8000 hands is a very big number, and there's a decent change you're just having some bad luck.
However, 8000 is enough hands that you should be able to check your stats against those in Jordan's post. If your stats are more or less the same, it's more likely you're just in a downswing. If you have stats that are out of the ranges given there, then you might have cause for alarm.
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#7
04-21-2005, 02:56 PM
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Re: variance......or i suck.
if i can crush the 1/2 game
over how many hands? I don't doubt you can crush 1/2 because 1/2 is donkey headquarters... 2/4 is still a donk farm so I would say you should be beating it after 15k hands... it is quite possible to run real bad for 15-20k hands so just keep churning out the hands -- time is on your side. seriously though, if you are super frustrated -- take a break and come back fresh... it is hard to play well when you are pissed off and get impatient...
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#9
04-21-2005, 03:00 PM
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Re: variance......or i suck.
thanks to everyone for the constructive replies. anyone know if there is an easy way to check PT to see if your running poorly? as if these donks rivering there 2, 3, and 4 outers werent enough of a give away.
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#10
04-21-2005, 03:37 PM
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Re: variance......or i suck.
[ QUOTE ]
anyone know if there is an easy way to check PT to see if your running poorly? [/ QUOTE ] Sorry, I probably should have posted this in my first reply: PT Stats [ QUOTE ] as if these donks rivering there 2, 3, and 4 outers werent enough of a give away. [/ QUOTE ] Heh. Am I the only one who only seems to notice the 2 outers when I'm losing? When I'm winning they just slide off my back and I can't even remember them. When I'm losing, I have to sit out an orbit while I cool off.
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