Question about poker droughts

[trying2learn]

I've been thinking about something over the last few months. As a quick background, I'm fairly new to poker (playing for 1 1/2 years) and after pissing some money away early, I read a bunch and played a bunch and now seem to sock a little money away per month, but by no stretch do I consider myself a great player. Slightly above average I'd guess.

Anyway, the question is this: I've read a lot about poker droughts that can last weeks, months, and sometimes longer. Is it possible that people say this to keep weak/fishy players around? I've had a bad run of weeks, and I haven't been playing that long...but I can't imagine a good player taking a bad stretch into the many months time frame.

If it is something that is said to encourage bad players to, 'hand around'...I just wonder how ethical that is.

Thanks for the discussion in advance...

[trying2learn]

after reading my post, it almost reads that i'm in a bad stretch now, which actually isn't true...

i'm running quite well right now and that's what's got me thinking about even more...how could you go cold for so long? seems off to me.

[Seether]

Play a couple hundred thousand hands, and reread this post. You will understand.

[Bulbarainey]

ive been running dry live for almost 3 weeks, which is the longest so far and i see how it could go on much longer, sometimes u just sit there and the hands dont come...

[Scott_Baio]

Well, time is meaningless. It's all about number of hands. That being said, I've gone on a 30,000 hand downswing before and I've heard of players I know to be long-term winners going on 50,000+ hand downswings.

Online, each table deals around 65 hands an hour (50 in NL games) So multiple that by the number of hours/tables you play to figure out how long that can stretch out.

[Louie Landale]

Its not something being said to keep the not-good-enough wanna-bees playing. Its a fact, you are going to have long droughts. You are also going to have gaia harvests. And these droughts and harvests are going to feed on themselves. I've had months of each.

But to answer your question, which seems to be: are you have a drought now or were you having a harvest earlier? Well, can you see obvious and repeated mistakes being made by the opponents? Is your money going in with the best hand and getting outdrawn? Are you routinely confident in your decisions or do you frequently have no idea what to do? Do you put in a lot of money on hands that don't make it to the show down? Do you believe a "good player" is one that "plays solid starting hands"? Do you see and act on bluffing situations that you are SURE are going to work? Do you play one way against one player and another way against another player? If you have KQ and its raised before you; can you think of a situation when you'll re-raise, when you'll call, and when you'll fold? Can you imagine ever calling a raise in the blind with 22, checked and called the flop, then checked and called the turn and won? Have you ever put a player on exactly AJ because he called a raise and then called a bet?

- Louie

[KeyToTheMint]

If one is a good poker player they know it not because they win, but why they are winning. No one plays flawless poker, however
certain situations are fundamental. Seeing players in violation
of principles of poker is profitable for you no matter what happens. For example, lets say i am against 2 opponents on the turn. I bet and get called by both. The guy in last position is getting 6-1 for a gut shot, his only out, which
is obvious to him. If he calls he's an idiot assuming his implied odds are 8-1.
Now he might not know any better, but there are some people that have to call. They psychologically know its bad to call, but realize they will only lose 1 bet if they don't make it, and less than that in the long run. However if they get there and they didn't call, they
will now tilt and probably lose every chip in front of them. So they take the lesser of 2 evils: the bad turn call. Now, I see opponents make mistakes like this all the time. When I see my opponents make mistakes I don't make, I know im getting the money so long as i am playing under my bankroll,
regardless of what streak I have to endure. If you play a lot
you will have to endure lots of crazy streaks.

Look at these numbers, a good player earning 2.5BB/100 (less than 1BB per hour in a live game), with a standard deviation
of 16BB/100 (a typical number) has about a 1/908 chance of not showing a profit after 50,000 hands and he is a proven winner. Things like this scare me.

[Snoogins47]

[ QUOTE ]
If one is a good poker player they know it not because they win, but why they are winning. No one plays flawless poker, however
certain situations are fundamental. Seeing players in violation
of principles of poker is profitable for you no matter what happens. For example, lets say i am against 2 opponents on the turn. I bet and get called by both. The guy in last position is getting 6-1 for a gut shot, his only out, which
is obvious to him. If he calls he's an idiot assuming his implied odds are 8-1.
Now he might not know any better, but there are some people that have to call. They psychologically know its bad to call, but realize they will only lose 1 bet if they don't make it, and less than that in the long run. However if they get there and they didn't call, they
will now tilt and probably lose every chip in front of them. So they take the lesser of 2 evils: the bad turn call. Now, I see opponents make mistakes like this all the time. When I see my opponents make mistakes I don't make, I know im getting the money so long as i am playing under my bankroll,
regardless of what streak I have to endure. If you play a lot
you will have to endure lots of crazy streaks.

Look at these numbers, a good player earning 2.5BB/100 (less than 1BB per hour in a live game), with a standard deviation
of 16BB/100 (a typical number) has about a 1/908 chance of not showing a profit after 50,000 hands and he is a proven winner. Things like this scare me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Such a silly game we play.

[LockLow34]

I had a run of 5 weeks earlier this year where playing live 2-5 times a week I had 80% or so losing sessions. (don't have my records available but if I remember I'll give exact data) It was a terrible run of cards. I'd like to say I was getting good hands cracked, which was happening to some extent. But mostly it was just I wasn't getting anything to play, or I was missing the flop completely with decent starting hands I did get.

I did analyze the run and found some things about my own play to help down the road:
- when I'm running bad is that I tend to play more hands, which doesn't help matters at all
- I'm not aggressive enough in smaller pots if I miss the flop
- I wallow in my losing streak, which is never a good thing
- I will play an ungodly number of hours during a session if I'm stuck, which is also not a good thing

All these are correctable though.

[KCFire105]

[ QUOTE ]
- I will play an ungodly number of hours during a session if I'm stuck, which is also not a good thing


[/ QUOTE ]

Do you really believe this to be a bad thing if you can maintain patience? I've consistantly found that when I only have 4-5 hours to play I leave down. If I can dedicate an all-nighter I leave up (usually after staying most the night and morning).

After going up $4k in one month, I've, in the last 3 weeks given $3k back in short sessions (4-5 hours). Have literally been card dead for three weeks in these short sessions. Made a few good plays along the way, but have missed 90% of the flops along the way.

I'm playing my game (patience, and long hours) until someone here can show me otherwise (and feel free to. Always open minded!)- Thanks!