MLB 4/10

[JupiterUWG]

Just a few quick thoughts/plays for tomorrow

YTD (Posted) 6-6

Braves (Smoltz) +107
Astros (Oswalt) -155
Red Sox (Clement) -130
A's (Harden) -120
White Sox (Buehrle) +135

any thoughts?

[Paluka]

[ QUOTE ]
Just a few quick thoughts/plays for tomorrow

YTD (Posted) 6-6

Braves (Smoltz) +107
Astros (Oswalt) -155
Red Sox (Clement) -130
A's (Harden) -120
White Sox (Buehrle) +135

any thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd like to hear reasons behind your bets.

[Buck_65]

Looks like the Oakland line has already moved to -125, and I'd take them at -140, so I'm placing a very large wager on them. I don't especially like any other MLB lines, but good luck with your picks.

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Just a few quick thoughts/plays for tomorrow

YTD (Posted) 6-6

Braves (Smoltz) +107
Astros (Oswalt) -155
Red Sox (Clement) -130
A's (Harden) -120
White Sox (Buehrle) +135

any thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

I am going against you on two picks.

Taking the Mets at -113 with Pedro. This is sorta hunchy I admit. The 12 K's in 6 innings makes me think Pedro is back this year. Also, Smoltz first start didn't exactly bode well for his transition to being a starter (again).

Also I took the Twins at +150 (-1.5) runs. The Twins are a good team, Santana is a great pitcher. They're home. Buehrle and the White Sox are both just average. I think they win this more than 60%, which is what the current money line is. Since I am picking 2 favorites already though, and because I don't think a 1 run Twins win constitutes 20% or more of possible outcomes, I went with the run line instead.

Also went on Oakland at -124 which was the easiest bet to make given Harden on the mound, who I think is easily better than Zito. I wouldn't bet my whole bankroll on the game though.

[JupiterUWG]

lol, well, i wouldnt bet my whole BR on any game but that goes without saying. I disagree on Buehrle being "average" but that was the pick I was least sure about at any rate so we differ. GL to everyone

[DougOzzzz]

yeah, you're right, "average" wasn't fair. He's good... just not in the same league as Santana IMO.

[mrbaseball]

[ QUOTE ]
just not in the same league as Santana IMO

[/ QUOTE ]

Same league, even same division [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Opening day form for Buehrle was spectacular while Santana was shaky. Look deep into the matchup here and you won't see anything even resembling a 60/40 split.

[mrbaseball]

Buehrle is well above average and on of the top tier starters in the AL. This line is skewed due to Santana. A quick glance at batter/pitcher charts for both Buehrle and Santana shows this to be a pretty even matchup.

Don't let the Cy Young award hype fool you. This is a bad line if you are betting Minnesota. CWS are 6-4 in Buerhles last 10 starts vs MIN and MIN is 4-4 (2-2 2004) in Santanas 8 starts vs CWS. Line is skewed due to Santanas breakout year and Cy Young media hype.

Disclaimer: I am WS fan but looking at the numbers objectively this game is more a coinflip than the line indicates.

[DougOzzzz]

I'm sorry, you can argue that Minnesota is not a good bet, or even that betting on Chicago is +EV, but no way this game is a coin flip. Santana's year last year was far from a fluke - he did nearly as good the year before. I may have underrated Buehrle, but he is definitely not as good as Santana. Minnesota>Chicago, Santana>Buehrle, Minnesota = home. How do you get a coin flip from that?

[Paluka]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm sorry, you can argue that Minnesota is not a good bet, or even that betting on Chicago is +EV, but no way this game is a coin flip. Santana's year last year was far from a fluke - he did nearly as good the year before. I may have underrated Buehrle, but he is definitely not as good as Santana. Minnesota>Chicago, Santana>Buehrle, Minnesota = home. How do you get a coin flip from that?

[/ QUOTE ]

Once again Doug is right.