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#1
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good reraise here, on the flop?
Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter
Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. UTG posts a blind of $1. UTG (poster) checks, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, SB calls, MP1 calls. Flop: (15 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, MP1 calls. Turn: (10.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> SB checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, MP1 folds. River: (12.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> SB checks, Hero checks. Final Pot: 12.50 BB if there is 3 to a flush on the flop, what are the chances of someone complete'ing their flush by the river. ~josh |
#2
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Re: good reraise here, on the flop?
tricky hand- how would a bet/fold on the river go? u may be able to fold a low/middle spade.
and your raise on the flop was good. |
#3
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Re: good reraise here, on the flop?
and your raise on the flop was good.
Care to enligten us as to why??? If you are going to make a non-elaborated statement like this...at least have it be correct. Brad |
#4
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Re: good reraise here, on the flop?
Nice hand. I don't think anyone can blame you for not betting the river on this one. There are few instances where you'd get such a sinking feeling from spiking a set on the river.
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#5
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Re: good reraise here, on the flop?
Firstly I'd have raised the flop and checked the river here too, so I play it the same.
[ QUOTE ] if there is 3 to a flush on the flop, what are the chances of someone complete'ing their flush by the river. [/ QUOTE ] Here are the probabilities that someone was dealt a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] with 3 on the board and none in your hand. The chances increase rapidly as you add more opponents. 1 opponent: 0.383904 2 opponents: 0.62972 3 opponents: 0.783491 So against your 2 opponents here, there's a 63% chance that at least one of them has at least one [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Assuming one of them does have a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], the chance they will make their flush from the flop by the river is about 35%. That chance decreases to 19.5% if the turn is not a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. |
#6
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Re: good reraise here, on the flop?
After sb checks to you on the river I think a bet is pretty safe.
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#7
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Re: good reraise here, on the flop?
This hand is pretty easy to play. Call the flop and raise if the turn isn't a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. It is all a matter of equity and while a flop raise might have value, anyone with a spade will be happy paying an extra small bet as a 2:1 underdog to hit their flush. We wait until the turn because now we can make them pay twice as much (they invest 2 BB instead of 2 SB) at half the odds (now they are 4:1 to miss). Genius!
Brad |
#8
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Re: good reraise here, on the flop?
[ QUOTE ]
This hand is pretty easy to play. Call the flop and raise if the turn isn't a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. It is all a matter of equity and while a flop raise might have value, anyone with a spade will be happy paying an extra small bet as a 2:1 underdog to hit their flush. We wait until the turn because now we can make them pay twice as much (they invest 2 BB instead of 2 SB) at half the odds (now they are 4:1 to miss). Genius! Brad [/ QUOTE ] Got it- thanks |
#9
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Re: good reraise here, on the flop?
You can probably call the flop and raise the turn.
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#10
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Re: good reraise here, on the flop?
Shillx
just about to type my answer and im looking at the hand now... and i think i know why im wrong. So he has a pair of aces and a re-draw to the nuts if he is behind. If he is behind a raise is only adding value to someone elses flush, while potentially forcing out SB who could pay us off with worse hands. So a call on the flop and turn is in order (assuming we dont improve). This will keep SB in the hand hopefully with dead money. Is that even close shillx? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] |
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