30/60 river decision

Enon · #1 04-07-2005, 03:34 AM

Turn decision interesting as well?

BB is slightly loose in his preflop hand selection but plays a fairly passive/bad postflop game (26/9/1.0)

MP1 is a player who plays a little on the loose side of tight and raises preflop most the hands he comes in with and is reasonably aggressive like the BB (22/15/1.3) and is probably a slight winner in the game over the long run.

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Enon is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, MP1 raises, Enon 3-bets, 4 folds, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, Enon bets, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (8.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, Enon checks.

River: (8.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets, UTG folds, MP1 calls, Enon folds.

Final Pot: 10.25 BB

billyjex · #2 04-07-2005, 03:45 AM

I don't see why you wouldn't bet the turn.

Jason Strasser · #3 04-07-2005, 08:59 AM

I dunno. He's not scaring away a better hand. Not too many hands will call him that are behind or dont have the correct price to draw, and he has outs to the nuts and if he gets check raised that sucks. Plus a worse Axs type hand might decide to pay off on the river if he checks the turn. In terms of the river, I think folding looks right.

Lmn55d · #4 04-07-2005, 09:17 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Not too many hands will call him that are behind or dont have the correct price to draw

[/ QUOTE ]

The first part of this statement isn't true (this is higher than I play but I'd be very surprised if worse hand wouldn't routinely call), and the second is irrelevant. Even if they are getting the correct price to draw, you make money by making them call a bet instead of giving them a free card. For example, if you are headsup against someone with a flush draw (9 outs) on the flop and you have a made hand, even if they are getting correct odds to call, your equity for that bet is about 66% and thus you want to put in as many bets as possible. Heck, maybe they'll make an incorrect fold, which would be even more +EV.

jayheaps · #5 04-07-2005, 09:21 AM

if someone has AJ or AT, they would have let you know about it on the flop. The only hand that can beat you is a scared AK and this type of player would have likely capped preflop with it. Now you just let A9 or A8 (typical limping hands) make Aces up. You have to bet the turn, no question. If you are called in multiple spots, this might turn into a check-call river, but definitely dont fold top pair decent kicker, in a pot with no post-flop raises.

Steve Giufre · #6 04-07-2005, 08:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I dunno. He's not scaring away a better hand. Not too many hands will call him that are behind or dont have the correct price to draw, and he has outs to the nuts and if he gets check raised that sucks. Plus a worse Axs type hand might decide to pay off on the river if he checks the turn. In terms of the river, I think folding looks right.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont know. I can think of plenty of worse hands that will call this turn that he might have. KQ, JQ, K10 are hands he is pretty likely to get a call from, and most players probably arnt laying down KK or QQ there. However if Enon is gonna check AQ there this guy should be able to get away from a lot hands in the future. I cant see how checking can possibly be right. The river looks close. Considering you checked the turn, I think you have to call the river.

Schneids · #7 04-07-2005, 08:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I dunno. He's not scaring away a better hand. Not too many hands will call him that are behind or dont have the correct price to draw, and he has outs to the nuts and if he gets check raised that sucks. Plus a worse Axs type hand might decide to pay off on the river if he checks the turn. In terms of the river, I think folding looks right.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is such a NL player's way of looking at this hand.

The turn must be bet for reasons others such as Stox and Steve have given.

hockey1 · #8 04-07-2005, 09:22 AM

Looks like scared poker to me. I'd have to have way better reads on my opponents to play the hand this way. Against standard Party opps with those numbers a turn bet is a must, as is a river call.

JeffO · #9 04-07-2005, 11:56 AM

I don't like it. Anyone with a gutshot draw or a flush draw would be correct to call your flop bet. I think you need to bet this turn. Given that you checked the turn, anyone with a small Ace or a Jack is going to take a shot at you on the river, so I would call the river.

stoxtrader · #10 04-07-2005, 12:28 PM

in multiway pots on draw happy boards it is even MORE important to bet a made hand. Yes you will get drawn out on, check-raised, and rivered. But all of this does not come close to the value you get by making 4-5 outers call big bets versus giving them infinite odds on the draw.

you have to bet this turn.