33 flops second pair, so I raise...

Dave G. · #1 03-31-2005, 04:00 AM

Hi. Okay, I'm still pretty new here, but I thought this hand might be a good example of pushing a marginal holding against an opponent you have a good read on. Maybe I'm just entering the LAGgy phase of my poker life, though. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

If this isn't a good example or if my play is bad, then I hope someone will correct me so that I can apply my aggression more appropriately.

Villain is a solid player. He plays in a reasonable number of pots and has been showing down some good hands. This is an important factor in how I played this hand. My position relative to villain also made playing this hand much easier.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 raises, Hero calls, 6 folds.

I think the PF call is okay, but I'm unhappy nobody else came along for the ride.

Flop: (5.5 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+2 bets, Hero raises, UTG+2 calls.

I didn't hit my set. Normally this is an auto-muck for me. As villain bet into me though, I thought a bit and decided to push ahead...

He raised PF, and the most likely holding for a PF raise from a solid player is broadway overcards. The chances that he has a big pocket pair are slim. I am fairly certain that this flop has completely missed him, and I have the best hand. So I fire a raise at him to see how much he likes his hand. This is also a value raise; if I'm right, he is a significant underdog to my lowly pair of 3s.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 raises, Hero 3-bets, UTG+2 calls.

If my read is correct, this didn't help him at all. I knew he was going to checkraise me here. I see this stunt all the time at 1/2. Unimproved overcards and the flop bet didn't pick it up? No worries, just check-raise the turn! This is an awful play and I intend to punish him for it, so I fire a 3-bet at him to let him know that I'm not falling for his silly trick (for value too, but that sounded cooler). If he caps here then I know he's got an overpair or possibly a set of 9s and I'll fold and be done with it.

This will more often than not earn me a free showdown too, which is exactly what I want. So even if I AM behind at this point, I'm not investing any more bets into this hand.

River: (10.75 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero checks.

Scary river card. I'm assuming he has unimproved overcards and one just came, which may give him the best hand.

Even so, I am checking behind on any non-3 river. He isn't going to call any bets with unimproved overs, so betting gains nothing.

Final Pot: 10.75 BB

Here's a bit of math regarding the turn play. I included it down here for clarity.

Assuming villain does have overcards, my equity on the turn is huge. He has 6 outs with one card to come, making him a 6.7:1 dog to improve to the best hand. His equity here is only 12.9% and my equity is 87.1%.

He put 3 big bets into the turn to win 3 big bets off me. The EV of his play is: (-3)*.871 + 3*.129 = -2.226BB, which makes the EV of my turn play +2.226BB. So this is a very easy 3-bet for me. Even if he picked up a diamond flush draw, this would still be a losing play for him, because his equity would only increase by 17.4% (not 19.2%, I have one of the diamonds).

Well, this whole hand is very read dependent, but I think I did alright. Thoughts? Am I turning into a LAG or is this good?

Evan · #2 03-31-2005, 04:04 AM

I don;t think your preflop call is okay. Cold calling should not be automatic with low pocket pairs, especially when you are the first to cold call.

I'd fold to the turn cehck raise unless you know this guy to do this on a bluff. Your calculations at the bottom of your post are all well and good....just as long as your opponent doesn't have a pair. You're drawing really thin if you're behind, which really can't be too absurd of an assumption given the action and the board.

Dave G. · #3 03-31-2005, 04:10 AM

Yeah, I realise that this is all good as long as he doesn't have a pair, but there's a much greater likelihood that he's just betting unimproved overcards and hoping to pick up the pot right there.

Evan · #4 03-31-2005, 04:12 AM

Why do you say that? To me, it sounds like you are creating a read based on your hand and what you are hoping is true.

Bet-call, check-raise is a really good line for a big hand. To be honest, I wouldn't be surpised to see the guy play AA this way. If he happened to have overs this time then great. If you think that he will have overs enough to 3 bet the turn then you're in tourble imo.

Dave G. · #5 03-31-2005, 04:23 AM

Well, I mostly say it based on the probabilities of being dealt various hands. Yes, AA could be played this way, but so could a lot of other things, and the chances that he was dealt a big pair aren't that great.

This is even more true if he has noticed me being aggressive and thinks I'm trying to steal it from him.

Evan · #6 03-31-2005, 04:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is a solid player. He plays in a reasonable number of pots and has been showing down some good hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yes, AA could be played this way, but so could a lot of other things

[/ QUOTE ]

Those 2 statements don't add up for me. To assume that this guy is trying to take advantage of his table image as rationale for your turn 3 bet is quite a parlay.

ChoicestHops · #7 03-31-2005, 04:35 AM

I think you played it fine. The only thing I question is cold calling the PF raise in your early position. If I were CO or the button and no one had yet entered, and I have a good read on UTG, I would maybe call the PF raise.

Ive played hands very similar to this and have been fairing well lately. Yes, it's a possibilty that he has AA or a high pocket pair. But you can't think this everytime a TAG or TAN shows some aggression.

Seeing that he is UTG, I would put him on a read of AK or a suited broadway. If he had the 99 I really doubt he would not have capped the turn, and he definitely would have fired on the river.

edit: If the UTG raiser was a LAG, I don't call PF raise for obvious reasons I think. It's alot harder to get a read on a LAG, he may like K9s or a pocket pair like 55. He could be completely bluffing. If the UTG raiser in this hand is a TAG, I would play it the same way mainly if I were in a later position to call the PF raise.

xixel · #8 03-31-2005, 04:43 AM

I'd fold this pre flop to the raise and no one else in yet. not very profitable

scotty34 · #9 03-31-2005, 04:45 AM

I think I would fold to that C/R on the turn. If I was villain, that is exactly how I would play a high PP when HU. Sure its a possibility that he has overs, and is trying to bluff you out of the pot. You would need an incredible read to tell the difference though.

The most difficult concept I've had to grasp as I improve my play is that winning limit poker (especially online) is not about each individual hand. Sure he may have had overs this time, and you made a good guess (read), however, if you were presented with this scenario 1000 times, and played it exactly the same, I think villain would have a PP more often than overs and this would cost you money. Sure, you may have happened to make the right play this hand, but the 'right play' isn't always the 'right play.'

Dave G. · #10 03-31-2005, 05:13 AM

Okay, the PF call was bad. Got it and thanks, I'll tighten up in those situations. (Probably explains why some of the pairs aren't doing very well...)

I understand what you're saying here, scotty, and I can certainly see myself playing a high pocket pair that way too. I figured the fact that it was heads up would actually work in my favour. Ace high can certainly be best in a 2 way pot with a flop like this, so he should be betting it.

I know what you mean about the "right play" though. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]