Hail the overbet

[Jason Strasser]

10-20 stars. the villian is Jerry, he has 2300 i have him covered.

I get AhAc utg. I raise to 80, mp calls, jerry calls from bb. Flop Jd 8d 7s. Jerry bets 140, I call, mp folds. Turn 3c. Check check. River 4s. Jerry checks, I bet 480, Jerry goes all in. I think.

I played this nice and funky. Jerry is aggressive but fairly solid, although like me can get out of line sometimes.

[kagame]

The checked around turn and his check on the river are really confusing.

Would he smooth call QQ/KK preflop? Im not really seeing it.

How about 56d? Unless hes pulling an extremely sophisticated play I cant see how youre ahead here.

I could of course be completely and utterly wrong, have no idea how this game plays.

[youngin20]

Ok, either this is an "He thinks I think that blah blah blah" hand, or you are up sh!t creek without a paddle. Your check/calling in this hand make it seem like you are really trying to buy the pot on the end. So what would he make this move on. I guess my answer is...it depends, and seeing how you have a read on this guy, or at least a lot more info than I do, but do you think he is trying to make a bet that you cant call? I like the line you took here, but I think because of the line you took (check calling) you have very little info on where he is at. will edit in a second. let me look over the hand again.

[kagame]

whenever i manage to disguise my hand completely and end up with just a pair i go into call down mode because i get really worried about stacking off...hello weak

id rather define my hand better and get more information, at least online with only weak stylistic reads

[zaxx19]

I only play to 2-4 so feel free to ignore my post....

Doesnt 5-6d seem to fit his actions perfectly?(maybe Im overthinking this..)

The weak lead at the flop serves to either provoke a raise by a strong holding which Jerry could then in turn push on....or grabs a couple callers in a pot where he is a favorite equity wise and allows him to see a cheapish turn given how strong his draw is.

Checks the turn bc he feels he has a good chance of gaining a cheap or free river

....and then represents a missed Flush draw or whatever by checking the river knowing a good holding will make a decent value bet with a good holding that he can CR all in with the Hero ~pot stuck and guessing what just happened.

Im not saying that this means its a fold though bc the odds the pot is laying are simply pretty good...I go into the tank here but assume Im behind.

[technologic]

[ QUOTE ]
Jerry is aggressive but fairly solid, although like me can get out of line sometimes.

[/ QUOTE ]

so basically you're telling us he can have anything?

this is pretty much based on your read on the opponent...why are we jamming the pot at the end and not raising the flop or betting the turn?

[bugstud]

I dunno, he led the flop. That doesn't rule out a hand of the flopped monster variety, but he might do this with air too.

[neon]

Well, I'll give you that you played this one funky, all right.

One question, though, what range of hands do you think villain puts you on when you raise 4XBB UTG, and then smooth call his (pretty weak) flop bet on a drawy board and then check behind on the turn?

I think there's a real good chance that he has you on a whiffed AK and thinks his QQ, KK, AJ, 1010 is good.

I'm not saying that he couldn't have a set, or 910 or 56 for a straight, but would he really check that turn w/ a flopped set or a made straight, given the presence of the diamond draw on the flop? And would he really go for a CR if he hit his dream card w/ 56 after the turn went check, check, and risk you checking behind again?

So after he calls your river bet, there's ~$1,500 in the pot, if I'm not mistaken, and his raise is $1,400 more. It's really not much of an overbet, and you've disguised your hand big time. Granted, you're playing for your stack with one pair, which is usually not good, but I think you're ahead here a lot, esp. given the turn action and your description of villain. I think I call here.

-neon.

[mgsimpleton]

[ QUOTE ]
I think there's a real good chance that he has you on a whiffed AK and thinks his QQ, KK, AJ, 1010 is good.


[/ QUOTE ]

this doesn't really make sense to me - if he has hero on a whiffed AK, why would he make a huge overbet at the end if he thinks he is good? wouldn't he just call down the bluff?

so this is definitively NOT that type of hand... it is either a complete bluff or a monster. I am leaning towards complete bluff given the way the hand played out but it's also dependent on the history of the two players - if hero has checked behind to trap villain into a river call with a weak pair before, maybe villain was expecting that. or maybe he just thinks hero is too aggressive to let the turn and river go check check check check. I would not disacount a monster here at all. But seriously, it's either a monster or hero is ahead, I don't really see it another way.

[neon]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think there's a real good chance that he has you on a whiffed AK and thinks his QQ, KK, AJ, 1010 is good.


[/ QUOTE ]

this doesn't really make sense to me - if he has hero on a whiffed AK, why would he make a huge overbet at the end if he thinks he is good? wouldn't he just call down the bluff?

so this is definitively NOT that type of hand... it is either a complete bluff or a monster.

[/ QUOTE ]

Part of me agrees, and part not. I would maintain that there's very little chance villain has hero read for AA here given the action leading up to the river, and could thus be playing KK for value this way. You're probably right that villain would just call Jason's bet w/ 1010 or AJ and maybe even QQ.

But it's not entirely impossible that villain has a marginal hand here; I just don't think it's a clear cut, monster or bluff situation, as you're suggesting. Yes, villain could have a str8 or a set, he could have a busted flush draw, but he could also have a hand we beat, too, a combination hand that didn't improve after the flop and is trying to push hero off his hand w/ like a J10 or so.

Remember, Jason said this guy gets out of line at times, and that he himself does as well, so I would imagine that villain knows this and knows that Jason knows he knows this, etc. etc.

So I think there's a pretty wide range of hands villain could have here, including some one-pair hands we beat. I call here barring a strong read on villain or some pretty serious history btw. the two.