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#1
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AKs - All in on a draw...
Party $.5/$1
Hero has A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in the BB with about $110 Folded to Villain ($76) in MP3 who raises to $5, called by LP, Hero calls 3 to the flop, pot ~$15 Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Hero bets $15, MP3 pushes for $71, LP folds, Hero calls Who likes? |
#2
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Re: AKs - All in on a draw...
Same exact play I made in a MTT tourney last night except i pushed which gives me some FE...
Its fine...if you have him on KK QQ JJ... Oh wait just reread the post its a must call for odds. Did you bet wanting him to push? I kind of like a CR all in here. |
#3
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Re: AKs - All in on a draw...
yes, i think that the CR all-in might have been a better play...
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#4
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Re: AKs - All in on a draw...
[ QUOTE ]
yes, i think that the CR all-in might have been a better play... [/ QUOTE ] I concur... [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] -Gryph |
#5
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Re: AKs - All in on a draw...
[ QUOTE ]
Oh wait just reread the post its a must call for odds. [/ QUOTE ] |
#6
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Re: AKs - All in on a draw...
I do, that's a HUGE draw you got there and I have no problem getting it all in. Realatively unlikely he caught a piece of that board so you are probably a favorite with 2 cards to come. Slightly behind AA (but +EV with the money in the pot) and ahead of all other pockets. Even if he has 56d or 44 your not that bad off.
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#7
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Re: AKs - All in on a draw...
CR all-in is definetly a good play too and I'd vary may play on this one. I think on this board I am not as concerned with the folding equity you gain from the check raise as you are probably ahead of most of his hand range. If I feel there is a good chance I can get him to come over the top of my lead I think it's ok, if they are not that agressive then a check raise probably works better.
EDIT: Another pro for check raise is that you could get some more money from LP, didn't notice him first time through. |
#8
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Re: AKs - All in on a draw...
am not as concerned with the folding equity
You should be even if his holding is favorable KK you make more CR all in and by him folding the overpair than by gambling on avg. |
#9
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Re: AKs - All in on a draw...
[ QUOTE ]
You should be even if his holding is favorable KK you make more CR all in and by him folding the overpair than by gambling on avg. [/ QUOTE ] Good point, I agree with that especially if we don't think he would make that play with anything but AA or KK. Still think it's a decent play and could be a good way to vary your game (though maybe not as necessary online). I'd probably go for the lead instead of check raise about 1 in 5. I like leading into the PF raiser occasionally with hands like this so that when I do it with a set I am more likely to get paid off. It will keep my opponents guessing. |
#10
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Re: AKs - All in on a draw...
[ QUOTE ]
You should be even if his holding is favorable KK you make more CR all in and by him folding the overpair than by gambling on avg. [/ QUOTE ] i didn't think that this was true, but i figured it out below...and assuming my math isn't screwed up, the check-raise is definitely the better play. pokenum -h ad kd - tc th -- 2d 3s 4d Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 3s 4d 2d cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV Ad Kd 602 60.81 370 37.37 18 1.82 0.617 Tc Th 370 37.37 602 60.81 18 1.82 0.383 EV for getting it all in and gambling is (net gain) $82 * 61.7% = +$50.59 (net loss) $77 * 38.3% = -$29.49 EV = +$21.10 EV for a check raise, assuming a pot sized bet from Villain, LP folds, and Villain folds to the check-raise 30% of the time: fold: (net gain) $25 * 30% = +$7.5 call: (net gain) $21.10 * 70% = $14.77 EV: +$22.27 EV for a check raise, assuming a pot sized bet from Villain, LP folds, and Villain folds to the check-raise 60% of the time: fold: (net gain) $25 * 60% = +$15 call: (net gain) $21.10 * 40% = +$8.44 EV = +$23.44 so the more he folds, the more EV i have. i missed all 18 of my outs (twice) and Villain took it down with TT. i think he actually hit a set on the river too...oh well, unlucky. someone at the table mentioned that i gave Villain a "gift". they didn't realize that i was a huge favorite when the money went in. |
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