99 Set hand

swolfe · #1 03-20-2005, 09:22 PM

No read on villain, this is only my first orbit.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

MP2 ($176.2)
MP3 ($76.95)
CO ($96.2)
Button ($98.5)
SB ($116.55)
BB ($105.2)
Hero ($110.8)
UTG+1 ($197.9)
MP1 ($100)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
Hero calls $1, 2 folds, MP2 raises to $4, 4 folds, BB calls $3, Hero calls $3.

Flop: ($12.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, MP2 checks.

I went for the check-raise, but the PF raiser checked it through.

Turn: ($12.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $11.9, MP2 raises to $45, BB folds, Hero calls ???

Uh-oh, am I in trouble here? Who would fold? Who would push?

I pushed.

mishafp · #2 03-20-2005, 09:27 PM

push- if he has over-set, he has over-set. If he has a straight, at least you still got some outs- plus, i dont think he makes that pre-flop raise with KQ (although its possible, it would be nice to have a read on him for that).

zaxx19 · #3 03-20-2005, 09:52 PM

plus, i dont think he makes that pre-flop raise with KQ

Why not 1/2 this board thinks thats the correct play with KQs...plus it would explain the flop check.

mishafp · #4 03-20-2005, 10:00 PM

raise 4 times the BB with KQ from early position? I guess some people would, yeah. Just another reason why the flop check is no good- i still think push is the right play.

zaxx19 · #5 03-20-2005, 10:04 PM

Firstly the size of the raise is meaningless this is a standard raise...

This also isnt EP its MP....\\ 3 before the blinds 3 after..

I wouldnt raise here....but if you are going to play as a LAG player you probably would. Raising 4 BB with KQs in this position isnt that bad at all...

mishafp · #6 03-20-2005, 10:05 PM

in my original post i said "although its possible"- which you are correct it is. I still think he made the right play (given no read either way)- do you agree?

jhall23 · #7 03-20-2005, 09:49 PM

I think I would lead at the flop here more often than not. Being the first round at the table I would be even more inclined since they won't have any reads on you and I think you would be more successfull in getting the raiser to come over the top of your lead.

Turn's tougher now, but you just need to win when you push ~35% of the time if I calculated the pot odds right. I don't really know, but I would feel weak folding here with no reads. I think a high PP as well as the hands that have you crushed are in the range of hands I would put them on.

parttimepro · #8 03-21-2005, 12:28 PM

This very much looks like villain has AA or KK. He checks behind on a flop with no obvious draws to encourage bluffs on the turn. Now that he's shown weakness and you've apparently fallen for it, he sets the hook and tries to end the hand there.

Yes, he could have JJ, or even KQ. I'd still push here, because 1) you should call a push by him on the river, 2) if he does have a straight you have outs, 3) you have to get a little scared if the river is an 8, Q, K, or A.

In short, why are you playing 99 if you are afraid to get it all in when you hit a set and there are few plausible hands that beat you?

swolfe · #9 03-21-2005, 01:25 PM

So, like I said, I pushed, Villain called. I forget what the river was (didn't pair anything), and Villain took it down with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] for the straight.

The big raise after my turn bet made me think KQ immediately. I couldn't think of anything else that a reasonable player would play that way. AK or AQ may check behind on the flop, but neither would raise the turn. I couldn't imagine any overpair (especially JJ) checking behind that flop.

Obviously, being results oriented, I should have bet out on the flop, but in this situation, with the PF raiser on my immediate left, I like to check-raise a good portion of the time to try to get some dead money in from the other caller or to extract some money from a missed AK that would otherwise fold to my bet. I'm surprised that anyone thought this was a bad move. Without a read, I'd expect a PF raiser to bet out 90% of the time, and the most of the times that I miss the check-raise, my hand will still be good on the turn.

I posted this hand because it's an example of where I had a very clear idea of what Villain probably had and thought that there was a large chance that I was beat, but couldn't lay down the set. I wanted to see what others put Villain on and see if I was just seeing monsters (and happened to be correct in this case).

meow_meow · #10 03-21-2005, 01:43 PM

I think part of the reason betting out on the flop is preferrable is that CR'ing is what most players do do when they set up on the flop. Betting out reveals much less about your holding.