TPTK - Too weak on the turn?

Dave G. · #1 03-19-2005, 11:39 PM

CO is a calling station, cold calling many raises both preflop and postflop, with a VPIP of ~40%.

I've noticed after moving up to 1/2 that my turn aggression is much lower than at .5/1. I think this is a problem, so I'm looking for places to be more aggressive.

Based on the flop action, I put UTG+1 on KK, so I'm not concerned with him.

When CO wakes up on the turn, I'm thinking he hit some crappy 2 pair so I put on my skirt and call. Should I have raised this, or is seeing a cheap showdown a sensible play?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, 2 folds, CO calls, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG+1 caps, CO calls, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (16.50 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, CO checks, Hero bets, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (9.75 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, CO bets, Hero calls...

shadow29 · #2 03-20-2005, 12:24 AM

Raise please.

tytygoodnuts · #3 03-20-2005, 12:28 AM

You have to raise here. You may still have the best hand and you need to protect it with a raise.

milesdyson · #4 03-20-2005, 12:31 AM

I'm calling down. UTG is calling down if I don't raise. I love calling down here.

tytygoodnuts · #5 03-20-2005, 01:05 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm calling down. UTG is calling down if I don't raise. I love calling down here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Could you explain why?

milesdyson · #6 03-20-2005, 01:12 AM

We don't have a read on UTG, but I assume that since the OP put him on KK he's reasonably tight.

What hands cap preflop? AA/KK/QQ/JJ/TT(maybe)/AK/AQ(maybe)

UTG doesn't have AA, QQ, AK or AQ based on the flop action, so he's down to KK, JJ, TT. KK/JJ/TT is a bad call for him to make on the turn, but he's very likely to make it. I do not want to buy myself outs against his 2 outer.

CO is passive and is betting the turn into a preflop 3-bettor and capper. Raising, knocking out UTG, and opening ourselves up to a passive guy's 3-bet isn't fun for me.

tytygoodnuts · #7 03-20-2005, 01:15 AM

Good point. I like the calldown now.

Dave G. · #8 03-20-2005, 12:54 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You have to raise here. You may still have the best hand and you need to protect it with a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

How does raising protect my hand here? If CO has two pair, he's already ahead and is not going to fold to a raise. If he has a straight or flush draw, the pot is big enough that he won't fold.

UTG+1 (assuming my read is correct.. he folded on the river so I don't actually know if he had KK or not) has KK and he MIGHT fold... but since I have the 3rd K, I don't think protecting against the last K is that important.

On the other hand, he might pay off another bet if the price isn't too high.

I just didn't want to go nuts in case I was behind... but I will probably try and raise this in future.

tytygoodnuts · #9 03-20-2005, 01:04 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You have to raise here. You may still have the best hand and you need to protect it with a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

How does raising protect my hand here? If CO has two pair, he's already ahead and is not going to fold to a raise. If he has a straight or flush draw, the pot is big enough that he won't fold.

UTG+1 (assuming my read is correct.. he folded on the river so I don't actually know if he had KK or not) has KK and he MIGHT fold... but since I have the 3rd K, I don't think protecting against the last K is that important.

On the other hand, he might pay off another bet if the price isn't too high.

I just didn't want to go nuts in case I was behind... but I will probably try and raise this in future.

[/ QUOTE ]

Randomly putting UTG+1 on KK is not +EV. Instead think about the range of hands he could have.

Dave G. · #10 03-20-2005, 01:16 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Randomly putting UTG+1 on KK is not +EV. Instead think about the range of hands he could have.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see your point, but what other hands cap preflop and check / call the flop with an ace on it? AA, QQ and JJ are other possibilities I suppose. He's already getting incorrect odds to call for his J 2 outer. Would another raise knock him out?

If he has AA or QQ, I'm way behind already and again I can't protect, and I'm going to get annihilated on the turn. In which case, raising would be very bad. These are remote possibilities... but raising fails to protect in each of them.

I can't put him on any other reasonable preflop capping hands that would see him play the flop so timidly.