Folding KK

[Drewboy22]

6-handed SNG Pokerstars ($35 +3) 5 left.

Blinds are 50-100.
Chip Counts:

SB 2200
BB (me) 1700
UTG 1500
CO 1700
Button 2400

I'm dealt KK.

UTG limps
CO limps
Button raises All-in.
SB quickly calls.

My reads on both Button and SB so far is that they are pretty tight. I am sure one of them has AA so I fold. I kept thinking about Sklansky's chapter on folding KK early in a tournament. I also felt that I was one of the better players at the table and did not want to get busted out on a coin flip.
Any comments would be appreciated.

I'll post results later.

[TylerD]

Firstly Sklansky did not play $33 SnG's online - he was talking about large buy-in, multi-table, live tournaments where there is plenty of play and plenty of time to build a stack.

Secondly, do you really think the button would play Aces like this? Sure, he could be a nut but typical players want to get value from their big hands and will slowplay them - min raising or raising enough to "keep people in". As for the SB, he could a very wide variety of hands AK - AJ, a pocket pair, or might figure the button was on a steal (very possible given the limpers) and might call with many more marginal hands.

Thirdly, you can never be facing a coinflip with KK, you're either severely dominated (by AA) or are a huge favourite.

If you never fold KK preflop in an SnG you will (virtually) never be making a mistake.

[Mr_J]

Yeh I don't see how you can fold.

"did not want to get busted out on a coin flip."

Most of the time you'll be at worst 50% to win the hand and triple up. Up against 2 or 3 outers. Even if you were only 50% , you're passing up a 100% advantage...

[therock]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm dealt KK.

UTG limps
CO limps
Button raises All-in.
SB quickly calls.

My reads on both Button and SB so far is that they are pretty tight. I am sure one of them has AA so I fold.

[/ QUOTE ]


You have been reading too many of Scuba Chuck's post. These tournaments are too short to be putting people on AA and folding.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
You have been reading too many of Scuba Chuck's post. These tournaments are too short to be putting people on AA and folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

I take offense to that. Who folds KK ever? I was gonna post the following on here.

This is the best advice here...

[ QUOTE ]
If you never fold KK preflop in an SnG you will (virtually) never be making a mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Scuba Chuck]

All right, I'm steamed now.

This is an immensely +$EV call here. Immensely over folding. Rarely will you ever see me recommend (or do) a play that will have such immense +$EV plays.

The probability that SB has AA is 0.2%. I would have put SB on AK or JJ at best.

Ran through poker stove.
Range of hands for Button: A7+, 66+, KJs+, KQ, QJs
Range of hands for SB: 88+, AQ+

Pokerstove results
Hero: 57.5% win probability
SB: 23.3% win probability
Button: 19.22% win probability

I might give opponents too much credit for hand strengths (obviously represented here by SB), but folding KK is an impossibility for me here.

Who the hell is "therock" anyway?

[curtains]

The chance that the SB has AA is much higher than 0.2% Of course this doesn't change the fact that this is an easy call.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
The chance that the SB has AA is much higher than 0.2% Of course this doesn't change the fact that this is an easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]

It is?

6 ways to make AA. 2,574 total hand combinations. Math comes to .00233. So you're right, it's 0.033% higher. Is that what you mean by "much" higher? Or do you do the 1 hand out of 169 total hand combos for 0.59%. This is incorrect. It doubles the probabilites for pairs.

[stigmata]

I had exactly the same situation yesterday, and I got busted by AA [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

However, I call 100% of the time, unless I think my fold will get me ITM. Not sure if that is correct, but there are so many donks at these games (tight or not) that I fancy my chances to double or treble.

[BradleyT]

[ QUOTE ]
I had exactly the same situation yesterday, and I got busted by AA [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

You forget about the other 150 times you were up against QQ, JJ, TT, 99, 88, AK, AQ, AJ....