A ridiculously difficult hand Part I

[Iconoclastic]

Early in low buy-in MTT. Blinds 15-30. Everyone has nearly the same amount, 1500. I hold JhTc in SB. 2 limpers, I complete. BB raises to 90, everyone calls. I called for the implied odds and getting to close the action preflop.

So now there's 360 in the pot. Flop comes JcJd2d, giving me T high trips but with two diamonds on the flop. I'm against 3 opponents who each have 1410 chips.

How do I play this first to act on flop turn and river?

I'll continue with followup posts detailing what has complicated this hand so much and has confounded all attempts at mathematically precise EV calculations.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Early in low buy-in MTT. Blinds 15-30. Everyone has nearly the same amount, 1500. I hold JhTc in SB. 2 limpers, I complete. BB raises to 90, everyone calls. I called for the implied odds and getting to close the action preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fold here.

[ QUOTE ]
So now there's 360 in the pot. Flop comes JcJd2d, giving me T high trips but with two diamonds on the flop. I'm against 3 opponents who each have 1410 chips.

How do I play this first to act on flop turn and river?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's why you fold here. But since you're here, bet 120 and hope the BB raises.

[Mike Gallo]

I called for the implied odds and getting to close the action preflop.

By calling you have given your opponents implied odds.
You have reverse implied odds.

I do not like the call here, however I would push on the flop if I made it that far.

IMHO you overvalued this modest holding.

[Donating]

Well - I don't like the call much either, but that's not really what you're asking about. Given the situation, I probably lead the flop. Assuming you play the hand thinking your J is good, I think that this is a perfect situation for a weak lead. Hope the BB has an overpair, picks up on your weakness, and raises you.

If you are concerned about KJ or AJ, another line would be to check the flop. You can get a better sense of how the action develops. BB may bet out and get raised. You can then get away from the hand. Also, depending on the action, you can check raise here.

The hand should play itself on turn/river - I doubt it gets to the river, though.

[Iconoclastic]

The more I think about it the more I think folding to the preflop raise is correct.

Anyways the reason I'm not sure what to do postflop is, well, here's an example.

Would you rather have a 100% chance of taking down a 600 chip pot or a 80% chance to take down an 800 chip pot?

Are the risks associated with keeping people in the pot and increasing your EV worth the variance?

[Donating]

No. Especially for 200 extra chips. The point in tournaments is generally to stay alive. Risking your tournament over a 13% increase in stack size would be a bad decision.

[Iconoclastic]

[ QUOTE ]
No. Especially for 200 extra chips. The point in tournaments is generally to stay alive. Risking your tournament over a 13% increase in stack size would be a bad decision.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess that's a Survivor way of looking at it. But I prefer to Accumulate. Plus, what if it wasn't just 200 chips. What if it was 100% for 600 or 80% for 1200. There has to be a point where it's worth it to keep them in.

I used to be a Survivor and would check-raise pot the Flop and push the Turn. I usually ended up winning very little. Then I converted to Accumulator and I'm being more successful than I was playing as Survivor. Now I'm thinking about check-calling the Flop and check-raising the Turn or check-calling the Flop and Turn and betting the River. The low buy-in MTTs I play do not contain intelligent opponents. They will predictably keep betting small if I don't raise them but if I bet into them they'll shut it down.

[PktAcesSoWht]

100 percent at 600 is better than 80 percent for 800. IMHO

[baumer]

if you were in LP and limped with this hand, and were faced with the same decision preflop, a call for implied odds may be in order, simply because of your positional advantage.

however, you did flop trips and there is only one more jack out there.

if you bet half the pot or slightly under it would give you all the information you would need to play out the hand.

if there are flush draws out there they won't be getting their odds, and if there is another J out there, it is probably going to hurt you.

however, you played this hand because you wanted to see a big improvement on the flop and you got it, you need to get some chips out of your good hands, so don't be afraid to play trips.

if you get reraised huge on the flop bet, it probably represents an overpair rather than a higher J, i think a J is calling or min-raising your bet.

if a flush card hits on the turn after they both call, you can bet out and have an easy fold to a raise, or a tough decision on the river if you get called.

folding trips prematurely can't be a good play, i don't think its easy enough to put someone on AJ or KJ.

id probably go broke with this hand.

conclusion
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fold preflop.

edit
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i dont really like the push on the flop because it will force the majority of players out of the pot and will only get called by crazy flush draw callers or a better hand

in the case of getting called by crazy flush draw guys, you can still extract money from these jerks by betting enough at the pot so they aren't gettin their odds.

and when they do hit their flush, you still have chips left!

your main goal is to get your opponents to make mistakes while protecting your own stack. i see no better way to do this than to give your opponents the worst of it, while still keeping some of your chips.

if you do end up goin allin throughout this hand it will be against a better jack, and not a flush hitting. Only regret calling preflop if you do get beat by a better jack, not any of your postflop play.

[SossMan]

the preflop call is marginal, and probably wrong, but not horribly so.

I would check trhis flop every time. I'm only raising if the preflop better bets fairly large and it's called in at least one spot.
otherwise, I'm checkcalling. I'll check again if nobody called a PFRs bet and a diamond doesn't come off. I like betting out if an overcard hits on the turn, too.