NBA generic sides system outline

[20Five]

Here is my generic outline for a basic sides capping system.. I currently have a pretty basic system for capping totals, been thinking about formulating one to do sides..


this is just a start, any comments suggestions are welcome [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]


Recent performance vs spread
ATS in last 3 games..
Days rest against the spread
Record in this spot (as big favorite or dog)

Matchup
head to head ats this year
vs division and conference SU and ATS


Rest and current team health/outlook
return or injury to any key players
coaching changes
length of current road trip/homestand


Statistical
FG% vs FG% allowed in last 5
FT and 3PT shooting % last 5 compared to overall, and defensively
Fouls given up vs drawing fouls matchup


Vegas line characteristics
Betting trends, public
moves in the line vs trends


Intangibles
Revenge factors
playoff push
ex coaches or players vs old team

[20Five]

no thoughts suggestions [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[sportypicks.com]

20Five,
That system doesn't seem to basic to me. However, I also don't believe there is a right way or wrong way to handicap, so whatever suits you best.

First, I'm not sure how much ATS numbers are going to help you. Unless you are looking for situations that affect ALL teams in the league, and not just one team specifically. Choosing one team to look for particular "trends" with might not give you enough data points and generally lead you in the wrong direction.

Also, I think you should maybe delve more into the statistical area. Linesmakers and the general public alike seem to rely too much on recent information, so possibly using more than 5 games (Like 10 or 15) separated by home and away would give you more credible data.

One other thing is I would try to consider the strength of these opponents in the games your using for data.

Other than that, I would be interested to hear what other people have to say.

[20Five]

Stastically speaking, I expect there to be quite a few more categories that are taken into consideration.. Two other noteworthy ones that will be taken are Turnover and Rebounding differential.. My problem is statistics (atleast for sides) are anything but my specialty.. this is an area I would greatly appreciate advice..

I also am with the idea of taking into consideration the strength of the teams recently played (in my totals system I look at recent performances against teams of the same type.. half court offense, fast break, tough D, etc)

Another intangible I might add is when a team has a game perhaps in the quite near future that they are likely looking towards... such as the Boston Celtics and their game tonight vs Detroit.. in this example they gave +12 to the Hawks in their previous game, and I liked double digit points, when odds are they are overlooking this game, with their minds further down their road against a tougher playoff caliber opponent. It paid off as they won by 4.

Not sure what to call this situation, but I think its a good one to look out for..

more comments please [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img],

thanks sport [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[sportypicks.com]

Hey 20Five,

Nice topic. In my opinion, using more statistical categories is not always the way to go. The statistics as a whole are just telling you a story about THAT game, not always telling you what's going to happen in the future.

I'm sure you've heard before to beware of double-counting. Well that's not always an easy thing to do. A lot of these statistics are correlated on each other so there is inherent double counting when combining stats. And that is definitely something you want to avoid.

For instance, you mentioned # FT's, Reb. Differential, and Pt. Differential. If you look closely all three of these stats can be influenced in a posititve way with just 1 trip down the floor. If a team grabs an off. rebound and is fouled on the put-back the FT's, Reb's, and Pt Diff's all increase. Was that possession more imporant than any other possession? I feel if you just grabbed the Pt Diff it would encompass much of the subplots that are going on during a game, and not have you double-counting. Sometimes I get into a funk of looking too deeply at stats, but then I have to remember that I'm only trying to gauge RELATIVE strength of a team, not EXACT strength.

I think you can still collect those rebounding diff's, free-throw stats for othe reasons. However, I would compare these stats on a league wide basis before using them in your methods. Reb Diff's and Free-Throws are effort stats, meaning it shows how hard teams ACTUALLY work. If team's are tired you'll see it there, not necessarily in the point totals. I would consider using those stats making assumptions about ALL teams and when they might come up flat.

[20Five]

Precisely sporty.... Im glad I finally found someone who looks at stats from the same point of view..

You explained this situation extremely well though, and that is one thing I have had a hard time putting into words when I explain it to others.. I previously had a category I called "little things" in my old system, which was composed of many of these "work barometer" stats, like offensive rebounding.. bench play.. etc..

Im not looking at the stats as much of a mathematical play, but basically trying to use the numbers to see if a team is playing harder then it had the week before, or maybe not working as hard against a team it is better then on the road.

Wont have tons of time to put into this this weekend, too many parties for birthdays and st patricks going on.. plenty of drinking will be done!

more comments! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

GL to everyone with your plays [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

-20

[sportypicks.com]

Ahhh, reminds me of my college days.....

Oh well, I'm happily married now so I consider sports a job and poker a hobby.

I'm living vicariously through you.

[20Five]

No one besides sporty with input?? [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[tech]

[ QUOTE ]
No one besides sporty with input??

[/ QUOTE ]

Take all the time you were planning to spend on this handicapping system and spend it on shopping lines and scalping/middling. It's not as fun to talk about and you can't sell picks, but it is by far the easiest way to beat the NBA.

[LLXC]

Please explain scalping to a n00b like myself [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Thanks tech.