66 raises limpers from the Button

pokerstudAA · #1 03-08-2005, 04:06 PM

The small pocket pair saga continues.....

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 calls, CO calls, Hero raises, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Once again the small PP raise from the button with many limpers......no way they put me on the set if it comes....no problems here.

Flop: (16 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (8 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 bets, MP1 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Hero raises, SB calls, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Wait until the turn to raise? I raised here to push out any diamond draws that might take the pot from my set.

Turn: (12 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 bets, Hero raises, SB calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Another easy raise here? Keep charging worse hands. I have no reason to think anyone is ahead here - much less that they have me read for 66. Mabye they see me as having an overpair or AK whiff?

River: (20 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero checks.

Check this river? It certainly looks like someone was chasing the diamonds all the way to the river. Two cold calls of 2 bets on the turn.....Value bet or looking to get check raised?

Final Pot: 20 BB

Sarge85 · #2 03-08-2005, 04:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Flop: (16 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (8 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 bets, MP1 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Hero raises, SB calls, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Wait until the turn to raise? I raised here to push out any diamond draws that might take the pot from my set.

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Rethink your strategy here dude.

Your raise is 100% correct - but it's not because you are pushing out diamond draws - it's because you have a very strong hand right now. One that, even the times a flush does get there, you will have opportunities to outdraw them.

Waiting to the turn raise would be foolhardy because you are passing up bets on hands that are willing to give you money now.

You'll collect those bets now, where as if a blank falls on the turn, they will probably only check to you, and you'd loose a chance to raise if they are playing a flush draw.

Get your money in on the flop.

edit-- and the river too...wtf?

Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

jt1 · #3 03-08-2005, 04:18 PM

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Waiting to the turn raise would be foolhardy because you are passing up bets on hands that are willing to give you money now.

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Excellent point. Kids who are drawing dead will often call a single big bet with 2 over cards, but certainly won't call 2 bb on the turn with the same thing. Ofcourse if they have a diamond, they won't be drawing dead ...but they still have the odds to call 1 bb, while they may have odds to call 1 sb.

jt1 · #4 03-08-2005, 04:15 PM

flop: I'm not sure but let me go over my thinking. With a raise 1) you won't push anyone out except runner draws. 2) the pot is big enough to warrant pushing out runner draws.
With a call and raise on the turn 1) you kill the odds for gutshots but not for flush draws. 2) if UTG2 is betting a 9, he might get scared if an overcard comes and check.

I can't think of any other arguments either way. I vote for raising the flop.

River: I'd bet due to the number of players. I'd say with 3 other players you need to be right about a quarter of the time, maybe 30%.

djr · #5 03-08-2005, 04:16 PM

don't know about the pf raise, but I like everything else. Definately check the river, you don't want to risk a likely check raise.

krishanleong · #6 03-08-2005, 04:20 PM

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Wait until the turn to raise? I raised here to push out any diamond draws that might take the pot from my set.

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Wow, don't try and protect sets. Flush draws already have the odds to continue. I'm not saying to raise or call the flop. I'm saying your reasoning is suspect.

Turn is fine. River is fine.

Krishan

stoxtrader · #7 03-08-2005, 04:24 PM

I would bet the river for value.

krishanleong · #8 03-08-2005, 04:30 PM

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I would bet the river for value.

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Two players called 2 cold on 2 streets. This is a bad river bet. (Marginal at best)

Krishan

stoxtrader · #9 03-08-2005, 05:19 PM

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I would bet the river for value.

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Two players called 2 cold on 2 streets. This is a bad river bet. (Marginal at best)

Krishan

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I dont disagree that a flush is possible, but is the frequency you lose two bets vs the flush worth more than the calls you get the times you are best and do value bet?

ultimately it depends on some pretty good assumptions and the math gets a bit involved.

Nate tha' Great · #10 03-09-2005, 01:38 AM

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I would bet the river for value.

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Two players called 2 cold on 2 streets. This is a bad river bet. (Marginal at best)

Krishan

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I dont disagree that a flush is possible, but is the frequency you lose two bets vs the flush worth more than the calls you get the times you are best and do value bet?

ultimately it depends on some pretty good assumptions and the math gets a bit involved.

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Yeah, the other thing is that people are going to play differently in a pot this large - calling down with any pair, gutshot and so forth. In a normal size pot, you can usually narrow down cold calling hands to strong draws, slowplays, and possibly weakly-played hands like top pair middling kicker by passive opponents. In huge pots like this, people will cold call much more liberally.