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#1
03-01-2005, 04:44 PM
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Worst downswing for a winning player.
whats the worst downswing a winning player has experienced ON BUY-INS( 20 buy-ins?30?)
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#3
03-01-2005, 07:42 PM
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Re: Worst downswing for a winning player.
Several months ago I went 40 consecutive sngs without cashing at $55s. After that, I had to question whether or not I was still a winning player. It turns out that I am... but it was still a very demoralizing experience.
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#4
03-01-2005, 09:35 PM
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Re: Worst downswing for a winning player.
No winning player playing well can go 40 SNGs without cashing.
You are either not a winning player or were on complete tilt.
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#5
03-01-2005, 09:58 PM
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Re: Worst downswing for a winning player.
Harsh. I agree some degree of tilt/off form play may be a more likely explanation for a run this bad, but how can you say it's not possible just due to a bad run of luck? Of course it's possible. I don't know how likely, though no doubt it could be estimated given ITM, ROI, SD etc from previous results. But just because you may never have experienced such a run doesn't mean it can't happen. It may happen to you in the future. It probably wont. But it could quite easily have happened to someone else anyway.
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#6
03-01-2005, 10:19 PM
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Re: Worst downswing for a winning player.
[ QUOTE ]
No winning player playing well can go 40 SNGs without cashing. [/ QUOTE ] Why not? Could a winning player go 20 in a row without a cash? I have. Gramps has. Anybody who's played a few thousand SNGs has. If you can go 20 in a row, you can go 20 in a row twice. Irieguy
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#7
03-01-2005, 10:51 PM
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Re: Worst downswing for a winning player.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] No winning player playing well can go 40 SNGs without cashing. [/ QUOTE ] Why not? Could a winning player go 20 in a row without a cash? I have. Gramps has. Anybody who's played a few thousand SNGs has. If you can go 20 in a row, you can go 20 in a row twice. Irieguy [/ QUOTE ] Say you make the money 40% of the time. If you play a set of 40 the odds against you losing all of them are around 750,000,000:1. (1 / 0.6^40 = 750M.) For 20 it's more like 25,000:1. If you only place 30% of the time, it's 1.5M:1 against for 40 and 1250:1 for 20. Such a streak is clearly more likely as you play more SNGs, but I'd be surprised to see anyone here lose 40 in a row.
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#8
03-02-2005, 02:48 PM
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Re: Worst downswing for a winning player.
[ QUOTE ]
Say you make the money 40% of the time. If you play a set of 40 the odds against you losing all of them are around 750,000,000:1. (1 / 0.6^40 = 750M.) For 20 it's more like 25,000:1. If you only place 30% of the time, it's 1.5M:1 against for 40 and 1250:1 for 20. Such a streak is clearly more likely as you play more SNGs, but I'd be surprised to see anyone here lose 40 in a row. [/ QUOTE ] Keep in mind that just because your ITM is 40%, it doesn't mean that you're playing like a 40% ITM player right now. Today my boss yelled at me, my truck broke down, I got into a fight with my girlfriend, my dog ran away and my friggin coffee was cold this morning. How well do you think I'll be playing tonight?? I certainly think that I have a better shot of going 40 OOTM than usual.
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#9
03-02-2005, 05:33 PM
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Re: Worst downswing for a winning player.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] No winning player playing well can go 40 SNGs without cashing. [/ QUOTE ] Why not? Could a winning player go 20 in a row without a cash? I have. Gramps has. Anybody who's played a few thousand SNGs has. If you can go 20 in a row, you can go 20 in a row twice. Irieguy [/ QUOTE ] Say you make the money 40% of the time. If you play a set of 40 the odds against you losing all of them are around 750,000,000:1. (1 / 0.6^40 = 750M.) For 20 it's more like 25,000:1. If you only place 30% of the time, it's 1.5M:1 against for 40 and 1250:1 for 20. Such a streak is clearly more likely as you play more SNGs, but I'd be surprised to see anyone here lose 40 in a row. [/ QUOTE ] i heard somewhere, probably 2+2, that actionmonkey lost 27K at one point in Party's $1000 Steps. i can't recall if this meant 27 straight OOTMs or down 27K for his day/session.
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#10
03-01-2005, 11:49 PM
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Re: Worst downswing for a winning player.
[ QUOTE ]
Quote: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- No winning player playing well can go 40 SNGs without cashing. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Why not? Could a winning player go 20 in a row without a cash? I have. Gramps has. Anybody who's played a few thousand SNGs has. If you can go 20 in a row, you can go 20 in a row twice. Irieguy [/ QUOTE ] Similar to David Ross's recent post about his 510 BB losing streak in 15/30. Anyone who's played that game for a period of time has had at least one 250 BB or so downswing. If you can do it once, you can do it twice in a row.
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