NBA food for thought early 2/22

I see early lines have Miami giving 3 1/2 @ Chicago. Does anyone else find this line nuts? I am surprised Chicago is getting more than 3 at home from anyone. And then on top of that, Shaq did not have the time off like the entire Chicago team did. Don't you think Chicago's got a real shot to win this one outright, let alone get 3 1/2 at home?

[$DEADSEXE$]

I'de stay away from this game personally. I get the wierd feeling Miami may come out and dominate Chicago. I see Miami winning by 5-10 points.

If I was going to pick one game I'de probally take Raptors -7. Or possibly Seattle +3.

[Chickenfly69]

Niss
I have been following your handicapping for about a month and I have to say that I quite impressed even after that little losing streak you picked it up with some humor to boot and made me a little money in the process. I just wanted to add some of my selections too, start a YTD and see how I do.

Well lets start with today: 3 plays

Miami -3.5 vs Chicago
Chicago has been on fire up to the all star break but in the earlier meeting at Chicago - Miami won by 11 on 2/5/05. Plus Miami is 9-1 in their last 10 and everyone important is healthy. Chicago is 6-4 in their last 10. Also note that Kirk Hinrich hurt his hand in their win against Toronto, but is expected to play against Miami. Hate to go against Chicago on this one since they have been making me the most money this season, but I just can't see them coming up with a win in this contest.

Detroit -11 vs. New York
I think this is a pretty easy pick, being from New York and also a Knick fan I definately remember the 91-61 defeat at the hands of the Pistons. The Pistons have also been on a roll their last 10 games (9-1). 6 of the victories were by more than 15 points. The only Detroit player that was playing at the All-Star game was Ben Wallace and he didn't play that many minutes. He also has amazing endurance so I am not worried about that. With the last 6 home wins being by a margin of: 24, 19, 22, 15, 30, and 17 respectively I am pretty confident in this pick even with the rest that the Knicks got. Oh and the Knicks were 3-7 before the All Star break.

Detroit vs. Knicks Over 185
Detroit has gone on a tear scoring wise as they are finally looking like the Detroit of last year. They are 5-2 for the over in the last 7 scoring over 100 points in 4 of those games. I am looking for a score around 104-87. Also, the Knicks have been putting up 100+ numbers in their last few, 7 of their last 8. So I also think this is a solid pick.

Side Pick: Small bet
Seattle vs Houston -3
Houston has been going great and Seatlle has been slowing down, but not to confident in Houston to make a large bet.

Indiana vs Orlando -1.5
Both mediocre teams but I love Grant Hill and am willing to give Indiana 2 points when Orland is at home with a record of 19-6 and Indiana being 11-14 on the road. Actually I might even make a bet on this after I give it more of a closer look.

Good luck guys.
Niss - sorry for fading you on the Miami vs. Chicago game.

Thanks very much. My ~100 picks posted is far from an adequate sample to conclude that I know what I am doing, but we'll try to keep it going nonetheless in the 2nd half. Not sure that I am going to take that Chi/Mia game yet, but my first impression was that there might be value in it. Will look at it closely later. GL.

[MicroBob]

38-18-1 since 1/22


CHA +2.5
DET -10
LAL -3

[MarkL444]

[ QUOTE ]
38-18-1 since 1/22


CHA +2.5
DET -10
LAL -3

[/ QUOTE ]

im gonna roll on these with you. you bet equal amounts on all of them?

[MicroBob]

yup....I pretty much throw down a unit on each game.

for me...that is a whopping $20.

As stated a zillion times previously...I don't take this stuff that seriously.
We'll see if I decide to get more serious about it come baseball season.


Caveat Emptor if following my picks as I readily admit I don't know what the hell I'm doing.
But I've been finding more winners than losers of late obviously.
Somehow I have doubts on whether I can keep up the pace.

[MicroBob]

Thoughts -


Lakers have not played great at home but i'm expecting big things out of Kobe...
It pains me to be betting on the Lakers since I despise them so...and they are right behind Memphis in the playoff race (MEM is 7th, LA is 8th).
boston still isn't that great imo. This line has moved to 3.5 in the past couple hours so I'm glad I got the extra half-point on this one. Boston is 27-26 overall but a lousy 8-17 on the road.
It looks like Boston has gotten hot lately...and while they are indeed playing better (6-2 in their last 8) they have also played 7 of their last 9 games at home (as well as 9 of their last 12) so I think that falsely inflates how much they have actually been improving. They've been REALLY well-rested from general lack of travel and have racked up a nice run of victories as a result.


Detroit has been destroying everyone. New York just kinda sucks (although has been playing some closer games of late).
10 points is a lot...but the line was 10.5 earlier and I think there is value here. A well rested DET team might just pound the crap out of Marbury and company. DET is 19-7 at home and NY is 9-20 on the road.


CHA has been reasonable at home (11-39 overall, 9-16 at home). MIL has been awful on the road (20-30 overall, 6-20 on the road).
Unfortunately MIL won at CHA on 1/17 99-92.

But I think CHA has been playing better since then.
Since that loss to MIL....CHA against the spread at home is 5-1-2 in their last 8.
In home games where the spread is 6 points or less CHA is 4-0-1 in that stretch.

[MicroBob]

I'm also taking the over in DET/NY.

I was leaning towards this pick earlier....but then seeing that 20five is taking it and his thoughts on it pushed me over the top.

so I now have 4 picks for tonight.

I see Hinrich is listed as "questionable" for tonight, so that turns this game into a no play at best.