Folding a draw to a K high flush on a paired board

morberg · #1 02-21-2005, 04:24 AM

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (7 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.5.
UTG calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, CO (poster) checks, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (6 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB bets, Hero calls, UTG folds, MP2 raises, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (7 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, Hero calls, MP2 raises, CO folds, SB 3-bets, Hero folds, MP2 calls.

River: (14 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, MP2 raises, SB calls $1 (All-In).

Final Pot: 18 BB

I don't raise the flop since I need three callers for flop bets to be +EV and I fear I might be pushing people out. Perhaps I should have raised when it comes back to me after MP2's raise? With an A high flush draw I probably would have, but with a K high I'm more careful.

When SB bets on the turn the odds are clearly there for a call. But: should I be worried about a possible reraise from MP2 and fold for the first bet? When it comes back to me I need to put in 2 bets for a 14BB pot, which still gives me odds to draw if all the clubs are safe, but the 4 of clubs is probably bad which gives me 8 outs or 5.8 in pot odds - still good to draw. I could be up against a nut flush and drawing completely dead. Also, MP2 might cap the betting making the odds for drawing worse. I'm not sure how to discount the odds here but decide to fold.

Should I have folded to the first bet from SB on the turn? Should I have called SB's re-raise on the turn?

radek2166 · #2 02-21-2005, 04:29 AM

I C/R that flop

Hojglad · #3 02-21-2005, 04:34 AM

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Should I have folded to the first bet from SB on the turn?

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Only if you hate money. The pot is allowing you a chance to win 8BB by calling 1. The odds of an untainted flush on the river are 8/45 ~= 18% ~= 1/5.5. When the pot is raised and re-raised, you are faced with a situation where you must call 2 bets for a chance to win 13 (2/13 = 1/6.5). You still have the odds to call since you make your untainted flush 1/5.5 times. It's pretty safe to assume that neither of these dudes are on a flush draw. Betting, raising, and re-raising are not plays to a flush draw here. It looks like they both have a jack. It's possible that they are already boated up, but unlikely. Then again, there is a lot of calling preflop. This is pretty common of hands like 55, 44, JQo, JQs, KJo, and KJs.

A made boat on the turn here is rare. You have the odds to call the re-raise, but some of the time you will be drawing dead. I don't know exactly how I'd discount your flush outs in this situation, but I certainly would.

reubenf · #4 02-21-2005, 04:36 AM

Supposing all clubs except the 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] outs are safe and it's going to be capped, you're getting 17:3, which is almost 5.8:1 but doesn't include any bets you get on the river. I call this turn (anyone cap it???) and I also 3-bet the flop. I considered raising the flop the first time around to try to clean up K outs but I'm not sure the pot is big enough.

cold_cash · #5 02-21-2005, 04:44 AM

I would 3-bet the flop the second time around, especially w/ the CO trapped.

I'd call the turn; capping would be bad.

morberg · #6 02-21-2005, 05:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Supposing all clubs except the 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] outs are safe and it's going to be capped, you're getting 17:3, which is almost 5.8:1 but doesn't include any bets you get on the river. I call this turn (anyone cap it???) and I also 3-bet the flop.

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No discounting of outs on the turn since I don't have the Ac in my pocket?

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I considered raising the flop the first time around to try to clean up K outs but I'm not sure the pot is big enough.

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Shouldn't I treat this hand as a flush draw and try to get as many callers on the flop as possible?

reubenf · #7 02-21-2005, 06:02 AM

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No discounting of outs on the turn since I don't have the Ac in my pocket?

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Maybe you should discount a little but I don't think these guys are on flush draws.

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I considered raising the flop the first time around to try to clean up K outs but I'm not sure the pot is big enough.

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Shouldn't I treat this hand as a flush draw and try to get as many callers on the flop as possible?

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I guess I wasn't clear but yes, that's how I play the flop the first time around here. I just was pointing out that I did -consider- raising the first time around to increase my winning chances, and decided that the pot wasn't quite big enough.

ArturiusX · #8 02-21-2005, 05:27 AM

Re-raise that flop and you would have had odds to call the turn. Besides, raising the turn might prevent the cap.

Hojglad · #9 02-21-2005, 05:38 AM

He has odds to call the turn any way you look at it. Oh, and raising just to give yourself odds to call on a later street is a stupid idea. If this were a good strategy, why wouldn't we three bet 27o in a raised pot preflop to give us odds to call the flop when an A hits? The reason you raise isn't so you have odds to call to make your hand on a later street. The reason is because raising is the best play in terms of expected value.

cardcounter0 · #10 02-21-2005, 05:54 AM

Hyper aggresive micro limit yahoo advice:
Raise preflop.
Raise the flop.
Raise the turn and cap it.
Raise the river and cap it.

I think you played the hand fine. Obviously with a 3-bet on the turn, instead of being a chance to cap, it is a sign that someone's set became a boat on the paired board. I'm also willing to bet the Ace of Clubs was out there.

With a J45J4 board, does any one consider what these people are raising and 3 betting all the way with? Or are you just calculating what your odds are of hitting a King High Flush?
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