My pushing/folding analysis program

eastbay · #1 02-20-2005, 04:34 PM

is not yet released but I have created a website and forum for people who are interested.

I really don't want to spam the forums about this as there will be a commercial element to this progam if it works out as well as I expect it could. But I hope it's fair game to give a pointer to the website, as quite a few people have shown interest in the screenshots I've been showing recently.

Come on over, give your ideas/suggestions, and look for the release announcements.

http://sitngo-analyzer.com

eastbay

imported_bingobazza · #2 02-20-2005, 05:11 PM

eastbay
I think you may have just killed SNGs, although it will probably be a slow death. Great looking tool.

BingoBazza [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

eastbay · #3 02-20-2005, 05:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
eastbay
I think you may have just killed SNGs, although it will probably be a slow death. Great looking tool.

BingoBazza [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Bingo,

I don't think so, but I definitely considered how wise it would be for my bankroll to release something like this.

When David and Mason released HPFAP, I am sure lots of people lamented that all the "secrets" had been divulged and poker would no longer be very profitable. But I think we all know that didn't happen.

I think this is similar (on a much smaller scope, of course - this tool is pretty darn specialized). Yes, the players who are willing to learn can use this tool to really ramp them up in these things, just like a newbie who reads and studies HPFAP. I have little doubt about that. But I also think that too many players just aren't willing to do that. They just wanna play for fun and all this thinking or reviewing hands stuff is not for them.

I'm not worried... yet. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

eastbay

lorinda · #4 02-20-2005, 05:49 PM

I think you're right Eastbay.

It's one thing to have a program that says "EV of raising with XX given that opponent calls with YY-ZZ", it's still a skill to know what the opponent is likely to call with and then interpret the data accurately.

I think that many of the more experienced players already do this instinctively to a degree.

Your reply to my 'guesses' a few days ago about one hand was quite revealing.

Lori

dfscott · #5 02-20-2005, 05:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
When David and Mason released HPFAP, I am sure lots of people lamented that all the "secrets" had been divulged and poker would no longer be very profitable. But I think we all know that didn't happen.

[/ QUOTE ]

Brunson said the same thing about Super System and there are threads in the Zoo worrying about too many people saying "brown trout" at the tables and leading people to these forums.

At the end of the day, people who want to learn will find tools to do it and those that don't, won't use them even if they're served up on a silver platter.

1C5 · #6 02-20-2005, 06:04 PM

Cool! I checked out the webpage. Looks very neat.

One question. How useful will this prgram be in cases where we have no read on one of the players? Sometimes common for 4+ tablers. Is there a range to plug in that an "average" player might call with late in the game?

eastbay · #7 02-20-2005, 06:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Cool! I checked out the webpage. Looks very neat.

One question. How useful will this prgram be in cases where we have no read on one of the players? Sometimes common for 4+ tablers. Is there a range to plug in that an "average" player might call with late in the game?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. There is a default "average" calling standard. At this moment this is 77+, AT+, but I'm open to a better default. There are also one-click presets for "tight", "loose", and "maniac" (you can customize each of these to your liking). Or, if you want to get more detailed, you can enter any specific range of hands you want.

This program may also teach you that it is important to have some clue about what you might be called be before you make your move. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

eastbay

raptor517 · #8 02-21-2005, 06:14 AM

in the 109s, when i push, i get called by crap as bad as A3, 22, K7, Q8, etc. its terrible. i would lower the average at LEAST to A7 or so.

Mr_Gordon · #9 02-20-2005, 06:06 PM

I agree I don't think this is going to kill sng's. It seems to me that sng's are sort of the avant-garde of online poker. I think the majority of people that play them are just giving it a try to get away from the grind. This is especially evident now that PokerProphecy is available. Countless times I see peoples stats and they have played 2 or 3 sng's at every level. For all of the fish sng's are as far from the norm of poker as you can get. MTT's are all that is seen on T.V. and cash games are usually all that they have been exposed to at home. Even on twoplustwo there are a number of posts by long term posters asking: Are these "things" really profitable? So I think that the only people that this will effect are the ones that are actively pursuing this information to begin with. That being said I do think it will be an excellent asset for the people that do use it.

imported_bingobazza · #10 02-21-2005, 12:29 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
eastbay
I think you may have just killed SNGs, although it will probably be a slow death. Great looking tool.

BingoBazza [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Bingo,

I don't think so, but I definitely considered how wise it would be for my bankroll to release something like this.

When David and Mason released HPFAP, I am sure lots of people lamented that all the "secrets" had been divulged and poker would no longer be very profitable. But I think we all know that didn't happen.

I think this is similar (on a much smaller scope, of course - this tool is pretty darn specialized). Yes, the players who are willing to learn can use this tool to really ramp them up in these things, just like a newbie who reads and studies HPFAP. I have little doubt about that. But I also think that too many players just aren't willing to do that. They just wanna play for fun and all this thinking or reviewing hands stuff is not for them.

I'm not worried... yet. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

eastbay

[/ QUOTE ]

Eastbay

Im kinda apprehensive about posting this, as its only my third post, and lots of very clever people have already rubbished my post...but I feel strongly that I should clarify my thoughts from my initial post. I really hope that you prove me wrong.

1) A lot of our +EV, but not all of it, comes from people who make plays that are incorrect based on c and $(EV)

2)This this tool is likely to lessen the gap between those that currently understand and apply these concetps well, and those that dont, but who will use this tool in the future.

3)I agree with your stance above absolutely for the lower buy in levels. The population of players there is so lazy and uninformed generally (except 2+2ers ofcourse). The uninformed here will largely remain so.

4)However, the playing population is much different at higher limits, $215 and up. At the higher levels, opponents are MUCH more likely to know about this forum, and hence this tool, and Im sure a clever bloke like you will have a marketing strategy will target the rest!

5) To quote JASucker - Even a small % increase in players playing with the correct strategy will mean that the games become very difficult to beat. (as enigmatic as JAsucker is, I think he is referring to this type if strategy adjustment by poor players)

I think that some posters have underestimated the impact and the penetration rate of this tool at higher limits (or maybe im overestimating the penetration rate?). At high limits, there are several implications;

a) You will HAVE to have this, or be disadvantaged as a reult.
b) If everyone has it, there will be no change...provided everyone has the same proportion of +ev from taking advantage of their opponents poor (ev) plays. This is unlikely to be true in reality.
c) If around 40%-60% of players have it, that 40-60% will, overtime make up the entire REGULAR population of players at that level FOR A PERIOD as the others will slowly bleed to death or get this tool. If this is the case, there will be less +ev for the players who previously played correctly, in the way that Tiger Woods forced other players to work harder to catch up with him a few years back, and now no longer dominates. The good players will then look for contrarian strategies which are currently unknown to counter this game change. The tool may then becomes less important when the contrarian strategies become the norm for the good players.
d) If around 10% of players have it, they will increase their EV by making more better decisions faster.

I really hope D is the case, but I suspect that C may be the case over time. Maybe Im giving players at higher limits too much credit? Time will tell...depending on the penetration rate. I can't imagine a good player knowing about this and not having it. So it could come down to your marketing.

Bingobazza

PS - I think you alluded to a good point - this is much more specialised than HPFAP - thats why its impact on the specialised SNG world COULD be large...but make little or no difference to the general poker playing population outside SNGs. I wonder what Strassa, Gigabet, JAsucker and other high buy in players will think of this, cos what do I know, I love bingo.