How sure do you have to be?

[JihadOnTheRiver]

Long time, first time. Philly, MS 10-20 live. Dream game, on a rush of a lifetime and playing it well. +45 BB in 7-8 hours. New young kid sits down, after a 3 or 4 rounds its obvious hes the only other person at the table that can tie their shoes without assistance. I've watched him closely in several hands and made strangely good reads every time. Nobody else matters...

I'm UTG with 77 and limp expecting limp-a-thon. All 5 behind me limp along to kid on button who raises. I immediately put him on QQ-AA, nothing less (I won't go into details, but I'm decently sure he's not just being creative). Blinds call, everybody else along.

Flop QTT, rainbow.

I'm looking at him as his eyes immediately dart to the TV when he sees this flop, I'm thinking QQ, almost no way Tx. Checks around to him, he gives the classic woe-is-me theirs a pair on the board and I don't like it look, then checks. Now I'm sure.

Turn.... 7.....crap

I check, around to him, he bets, SB calls quick (theres one of the tens) I raise. He hems and haws, says "I don't believe you have the ten, reraise." Wow...SAG quality. SB folds.

Now my question. How sure do I have to be to fold this? I'm pretty sure I'm right, but jesus, how can I let it go? Should I call and lead out and wait for the fireworks? Reraise and watch them now?

PS, don't comment on the PF limp. I don't care. Results tomorrow....

[The Truth]

You could always just call down. I dont think you can release here. This isnt deep stack no limit, you aren't looking to make huge laydowns.

The pot is huge, and there is a good chance he has AA, KK or AQs. Also, you have 1 out [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Dont fold, at the least call down.

[ggbman]

It is not humanly possible to be sure enough to fold this. You have to call down. You don't think he could EVER have AA, KK, AQ, or A-10 to j-10 suited here. I don't care if you called him down and he had queens. This is no 50-100 NL, and folding this will show a huge loss in the long run.

[Bill C]

If he doesn't have you beat and you give up the pot it's a huge loss. If you ck/call and lose it's just one BB. You hafta'call!

bill

[sean c]

[ QUOTE ]
If he doesn't have you beat and you give up the pot it's a huge loss. If you ck/call and lose it's just one BB. You hafta'call!

bill

[/ QUOTE ]

Bill I think its safe to say the "kid" will bet the river so I look at it as having to call two big bets here. Still a must call in my mind.

[sean c]

You are going to have to call two bets to win eighteen. So you have to be 90% sure here. You felt AA-QQ were his possible holdings and that you had been reading him well. He is putting on a nice little act but AA & KK are still possible holdings His "I don't believe you have a ten" does scare me a little but I bet your good here 50% of the time. I think its a must call but I'm sure as hell not re-raising turn or river. Of course he does have a re draw on the river and if a A or K falls that sucks big time but o well. Nice post welcome to the forum.

[fnord_too]

If you are seriously considering laying down to a three bet after c/ring the turn, WHY DID YOU C/R THE TURN????

Check calling the whole way costs what your C/R did and gets you to show down. Just leading and calling down if raised gets you to showdown for three BB. If you lay down to a three bet here you really need to take a different line on this hand.

FWIW, from your description I think you are beat, (but your turn play given your read just confuses the hell out of me. If your read is THAT strong, call it down or even check fold on the turn; if it isn't, how can you lay down your full house here?)

[JihadOnTheRiver]

So far I'm with you guys. Let me say something that I didn't emphasize enough. In my short little wanna-be poker career, I have never been so sure of a read. Ever. But also I'm not really stupid enough to think that laying this down is appropriate. Haven't you ever wanted to lay down a hand like this just because you feel like you're in the zone? I was Jordan. The hoop was 5 feet wide. But I know laying down is technically incorrect.

BTW, the C/R on the turn was exactly what i needed at the time. I was turning over the queens in my mind, and the C/R followed by the immediate re-raise was what I was looking for. Well I got it, then went in the tank a while wondering why I didn't just check-call. Check-calling the boat seems pretty damn week. But then again so does not check-calling. I'm an idiot....

-Durka Durka
Jihad

[sean c]

fnord and William make good points if your read was that strong check call down. You really didn't need the turn re raise to confirm anything. The check call down may have bought your latter bets some mega respect from some of the other players at the table. Thinking you were the weakest tightest player on the planet. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[JihadOnTheRiver]

Sean, great point. What will folding face-up do for my image?

Durka Durka
-Jihad