Trip 2s against All In early

[Barcalounger]

I've already doubled up against an idiot fish with middle pair, now I've hit my trips. But there's three clubs on the board and an all-in before me. Call here?

Party Poker $20+2 No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (9 handed)

UTG (t690)
UTG+1 (t400)
MP1 (t1215)
MP2 (t775)
MP3 (t805)
Hero (t1780)
Button (t1265)
SB (t325)
BB (t745)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls t15, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 raises t30, Hero calls t30, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls t15, MP1 calls t30.

Flop: (t130) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB raises t715 (all-in)</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero ???.

[etgryphon]

Call...You will probably only only see a A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Which you are ahead of with a 3:1 advantage. He may have two clubs, but I would expect him to play it a little better than that. With the fact that he is in the BB, if he does have the flush you still have outs to the boat and if you loose you are still at 1000+ chip early which isn't bad. He has to have the flush better than 68% or 2 out of every three times to make this a -CEV move.

-Gryph

[David100]

fold pre flop.

as u called it i would go all in.

David

[etgryphon]

[ QUOTE ]
fold pre flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

With 1740 chips, I'm calling any pair in late position up to 5% of my stack because the overlay is so hugh. He only has to call 30 chips for this. No way I'm folding...

-Gryph

[AA suited]

[ QUOTE ]
fold pre flop.

as u called it i would go all in.

David

[/ QUOTE ]

fold preflop to a min raise? what are you nuts? you're playing for set value.

you got the set on the flop, but on a scary board.

you have 10 outs to make a full house or quad. that's 2:1 odds by the river. however, you're only getting ~1:1 odds.

math says fold assuming you put him on a flush already. if you put him on a draw with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], then call.

[Barcalounger]

I was gonna reply to AA saying that the math outcome depends on whether you think trip 2s is ahead or behind after the flop. But while typing that reply I noticed that your post was edited to include it already. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] That was the real quandry, would someone with the nut flush raise all-in? This is a $22 tourney so I've seen much worse plays...

Without a read I put him on 4 different scenarios of which I'm in the lead in 3 of them:
Already got the flush, but not the nuts (maybe J high).
On the flush draw with A or K.
Overpair protection from me drawing to the flush.
Stone cold bluff.

[AA suited]

yup, thats the quandry.

personally, since my stack is double his, i would call.

i wish i knew what would be +ev here?

ps- it's a set of 2's, not trip 2's. if trip 2's then there would be two 2's on the board, and a flush is impossible. (suited 2's anyone? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] )

[etgryphon]

[ QUOTE ]
you have 10 outs to make a full house or quad

[/ QUOTE ]

He does have that yet: he has 3x T, 3x 9, and 1x 2. for a total of 7 outs.

When the turn comes he'll have the ten outs.

-Gryph

[smartalecc5]

call, b/c if I had a flush, I would want to extract bets not make people fold.