Update on my party points

[MicroBob]

2 PM's and one post in less than an hour asking me how it's going so I thought I'd start a thread where it would be easy to fine.


Things are progressing MUCH better than expected.

4.8k points first day.
I estimate 8k points on the recently finished 2nd day (midnight eastern). It didn't get updated until 7 or 8am yesterday so I'm expecting I won't know for certain my day 2 score until that time.

So...that's almost 13k points after 2 days.

I'm feeling REALLY good today (after some really hard sleep) and think 9k today and another 9k Friday is extremely realistic.
Meaning I'll be in position to get 30k points before midnight Friday (and I will do some much deserved drinking and going out at that time).


Hands come MUCH faster than I originally projected.
Almost 4k hands in the 10 hours of happy-hours.
yup...400 hands an hour on 4 tables.
Figure 3800 of these are raked-hands and that's 6840 points during happy hours. Another 2k hands during non-happy hours is 1800 points giving me 8600 in a given day and 2 more REALLY long days should get me there.


That's an awful lot obviously...but I would really like to be able to wrap this up as quickly as possible.


It doesn't seem clear when I'm supposed to submit my claim. Do I have to wait for my account screen to be updated and SHOW that I have 30k....or can I just submit my claim when I think I got there and then they can look at it when it all gets updated?


Looks like I'll send another e-mail to clarify.


as many have pointed out, it's probably a moot point anyway.
I now think I have a 10% chance or less of getting one of these things.
But hopefully I'll have a 1-2BB/100 win-rate for my 20k some-odd hands that I play and will then take a few days off (mardi-gras in New Orleans next Sunday and Monday...yes, I think I'll be there).


I played horribly yesterday because I was so tired....and because I'm still learning the 10/20 6-max game.
but mostly because I was squinting at the screen for my final few hours and was REALLY struggling.

But I'm still ahead money-wise since I started doing this and am doing much better today after getting really good rest...and catching some cards....although as I type this my AA just lost a bunch to QQ, but since he caught his Q on the flop it wasn't so bad. we capped PF and flop...but I just called him down on turn and river when he kept coming at me.
That's a hand that in my bleary-eyed state yesterday I might have lost another BB or 2 on just keeping on the gas without actually THINKING (novel concept).

just now had A6s on board of 2345 and the other ace paid me off rather nicely. Woo-hoo!! I'm up 55BB's on that table...and that's the one where I lost with AA earlier.



Anyway, thanks for all the support gang.
would be really fun if I got this thing although I don't think it's going to happen.

Thanks for all the requests asking 'hows it coming along?'
I thought it would just be easier to post my update here instead of responding individually.

[jasonHoldEm]

GL bob. I want a postcard if you get on the boat.

[TheMetetron]

You know, your girlfriend may be pretty and all... but wouldn't you rather have a 20-something 2+2er with you on the trip? It's a POKER cruise after all...

No? Damn I tried....

Anyways, gl with it man and hopefully it works out for you. I, too, expect a postcard.

[MicroBob]

actually my GF would be unable to make it.

They don't know it yet but there are a couple of friends of mine who I would invite if I got it.
If they couldn't do it (very likely...since most people DO have jobs afterall) I might see if my Dad was interested.


Obviously not going to worry about who I'm inviting until I actually win the damn thing though.



You guys wanting post-cards...are you sure you REALLY want me to have your home-address??


I can see the headline now:

"Nerdy Poker Playing Stalking Meets His 'Targets' on the Internet"

[TheMetetron]

Alright, well I still want to be like 110th on the list for the cruise [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] And yes, I seriously want a damn postcard so I can stare at it in envy...

Seriously, good luck [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[MicroBob]

Okay all -

Recently woke-up and am ready to plug away until 1pm (central) tomorrow). Still getting myself moving and rubbing the sleep out of my eyes.

Day 1 - 4800 pts (approx)
Day 2 - 7992 pts (not quite to my estimate of 8k...but I'll take it)

So I have officially a total of 12828 points after 2 days.
Day 3 is over in less than an hour.
I got a ton of hands in during the happy hours...possibly more than on Day 2.
And obviously a few hands outside the Happyhours period.


I'm hoping for 8.2k points for day 3 which would put me at 21k total and in position to have a REALLY massive Friday for 9k points I could wrap it up by 11p (central..which is midnight eastern obviously).


So...if I can get there after only 4 days I should have a shot (although probably not a huge one obviously).

I've been seeing one player specifically on a LOT of my tables during odd hours, etc who I suspect might be trying to get this too. He might be a 2+2'er as he has really good stats.


I'm not up as much as I would like after so many hands...but I am up, which is better than down, so I'm not complaining.
I know I have been costing myself BB's when I've been really tired...
"oh....did he raise??"
"i have top-pair...oh goodie. Oh wait the board is A8574 on the board...I didn't see that a 6 would give him the straight, i need to slow-down. Hang on again...I'm holding a 6 so I have the straight, didn't see that!!"

That last hand and thought-process actually happened by the way. "crap...be afraid of the straight...no wait...I have the straight."


My pokertracker databases are kind of split up now but I'm guessing around 20k hands for the 4days or so.
I've continued to get near 400 hds/hr per 4 tables.

I don't know what the average rake is on 10/20 6-max....but if we assume $0.33/hr ($2 rake divided by 6 players) then for 20k hands that's $6600 in rake Party has suckered out of me playing this.

golly.
Amazing to think that if they made the tables rake-free I could just fork over $3k to them at the beginning of the week and actually do BETTER on the deal.


Obviously this isn't ALL cruise-related. I would have played SOME hands during the week anyway and would have paid rake on those.
and I like how I was able to use this thing to motivate myself to play more.
My previous struggles where I would procrastinate sitting at the tables and would just wax philosophic on 2+2 on my blog instead of just getting in 1k hands in a day seems kind of silly now.

In just 4 tables I can get in 1k hands in a hard 2.6 hours.
At 2BB/100 that's $400/day....or $2k/wk for around 3 hours of work a day X 5 days.


Anyway, yes...party certainly profited handsomely off of me.

Another hypothetical...there's no way I would have played this many hands if it weren't for the promotion.
I'm going to admit something really stupid about myself right now that I was reluctant to do before...but in the sake of honesty here goes:


I currently have no rake-back on party...whereas I get 22.5% on Empire.
If my previous estimate of paying $6600 in rake for my 20k hands is accurate then I would have gotten back $1485 in rake if I had paid all these hands on Empire.

Since I estimate my chances of getting the $12k package to be about 10% that roughly makes it even EV for me.

Essentially,

I'm 'spending' the $1400 that I WOULD have gotten in rake-back on a skin for a 10% chance at a $12k prize-package.
So from that perspective this whole exercise definitely feels kind of silly.

but...it is also kind of moot because there's no way I could have been motivated to do all this without the pacific waters calling me.



BTW - i received a PM from someone who says they got a hold of an 'insider' there who assures him that not all 20 of the seats have been claimed yet.

It seems there's a lot of gossip going on that they've ALL been taken...they were all taken on the first day...they still probably have a couple available...etc etc.

I don't get it. I don't think there's much chance that anybody on here really knows if they are still available or not so it's kind of ridiculous to speculate.



Along with all the posts in the threads I have also received several PM's and comments in my blog wishing me good luck on this.
I was kind of reluctant to admit that I was going to try for this because I KNEW it was kind of stupid...and I KNEW that everyone here KNEW it was kinda stupid.
but the support I've received has been fantastic and has probably helped keep me going.

[Shoe]

Good luck! I hope you get it today (Friday). BTW, where is your blog?

[liquidboss]

Keep it up Bob, I'm rooting for ya. Don't listen to the rumors going around that all 20 spots are taken, they were probably started by other multi-tablers trying to get others to drop out.

[HesseJam]

[ QUOTE ]
It doesn't seem clear when I'm supposed to submit my claim. Do I have to wait for my account screen to be updated and SHOW that I have 30k....or can I just submit my claim when I think I got there and then they can look at it when it all gets updated?


[/ QUOTE ]

Bob, I suggest that you play it safe because you never know how exactly the sort-out process of the 20 hands with Party will be.

I would send a claim right away right now. Always state that you went for the 30K just by playing hands.
The next mail I would send right AFTER the most recent update AT the day you think you will clear the 30K.
Then, I would send one as soon as you think you have made it.
One further mail 30 minutes later, when you can be sure that you've made it and
the last one immediately after you can proof via an updated points balance that you've made it.

Stating all the time that you will achieve the 30K through playing might warm their heart a bit in case there is going to be an uproar (and there will be one!) that everybody has just made it by RAFs on the first day. I could remotely imagine that they reserve a couple of seats for those who just played.

Party has a couple of options to deal with the fact that they might piis some of their high roller players off if it is dicovered that nobody had a chance after the first day because of the RAFs:

- keep everything in the dark and just notify the 20 winners after 7 days. Sending an e-mail to everybody else that they were unfortunately late combined with some advertising of the next exciting promotions.

- put a list on the lobby of who has won a seat

- including when they qualified for the 30K

- including how they qualified.

- Announcing a change of the award rules before or after the seven days discounting all/ part of the RAF points or reserving half of the seats for play throughers only. Somehow, my bet would go to alternative 1. But you never know...

[Stupendous_Man]

GL, MB! You can leave me off the postcard list... would be afraid your cat might show up! [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]