Live 5/10 Interesting Hand - Typical "Way Ahead or Way Behind"

[coltrane]

Live 5/10 NL
villain and I both have ~$2500

the game is a good one for me - I know all of the players at the table and read them well.....villain in this hand is a LAG - loose, likes to bluff, can't let go of a draw, loves to gamble - and he's the type who can break someone because he'll gamble on a longshot but he's possibly also the most profitable opponent at the table for me in general.....
my image is that of being very tricky - to the point where some of the players at the table comment that they are reluctant to give me action when the money is pretty deep (which it was on this particular evening)....anywho....

one EP limper, villain makes it $80 in MP - I put him guaranteed on a big pair or possibly AK (even though he is a loose caller, he's not a tricky raiser), folded to me on button and I call with 76s, everyone else folds.....

Flop ($185) comes 977
villain checks.....now, this surprised me a little....I expect him to bet here most of the time with an overpair....his check meant three possible things to me: 1) he has AK (he may or may not fold to a flop bet by me in that case), 2) he has AA or KK (with QQ-TT he would've bet the flop) and is expecting me to auto-bet and is planning to checkraise me (he's the type to do that kind of thing - particularly against me), 3) he has 99 (he's not tricky enough to lead out with a big hand like that and a checkraise would be exactly the line he'd take) - only thing I'll say is that 99 is what I'd call the precise border hand for his preflop raise (88 and down he'd limp).....

so, stacks are pretty deep, I'm either way ahead or way behind, but I do want to maximize my EV in these situations......what's your plan for the hand if you're me? (keep in mind all the relevant info I've provided).....results/comments to come....

[johnnybeef]

given the range of hands that your opponent could be holding and the read that he will likely check raise you, i think that the play with the highest EV is to let him checkraise, and then get all of your chips in after this.

[tbach24]

I really think you should check behind. If this is the type of player who will follow up with an overpair, but check with AK, I would let him catch one of his high cards so that he's more willing to give you chips.

[fsuplayer]

a cute line would be:

check behind, call the turn, raise the river.


or just play it normal and bet here.

[coltrane]

[ QUOTE ]
a cute line would be:

check behind, call the turn, raise the river.

or just play it normal and bet here.

[/ QUOTE ]

hi FSU,

as a side note, I've been experimenting a lot with the type of line you're talking about (in deep games in pots where commitment isn't an issue) - play real passively in position checking/calling/etc. and then raise on the river.....I'll do this with two-pair type hands and also on missed draws, pure bluffs, etc......it's a real pain in the @ss for opponents!......

as for this hand, if you bet the flop and did indeed get checkraised, what would your plan be?....just call down?......

[Cornell Fiji]

[ QUOTE ]

as for this hand, if you bet the flop and did indeed get checkraised, what would your plan be?....just call down?......

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are being way too results oriented here. Yes you might be against 99 but from the way that I read this hand your villain would be willing to commit a good amount of chips with hands that you are way ahead of. Yes you might be way behind but thats the risk that you have to take here to maximize your EV for this hand

[flawless_victory]

[ QUOTE ]
a cute line would be:

check behind, call the turn, raise the river.


or just play it normal and bet here.

[/ QUOTE ]i think your "cute line" is normal for most. i think you MUST bet here. how will you win a huge pot checking?

[KINGOFINLAND]

Allin.

Thats cool and also very good +ev against bad players like this villain.

Its amazing how much the love to gamble even with tight player when they dont need to use brains.

And believ me i know this for sure [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Cornell Fiji]

you are 'way behind' around 5% of the time here given his range of hands. Because of this I am willing to play my hang in such a way that I might stack off to him if he does have 9s full but I will try to get most of the money into the middle because the villain will be willing to get the money in with many hands that you beat.

If you think that he is going to check-raise you with an overpair then this is all about pot manipulation. I would bet whatever would be standard for the game that you are playing (150?) and smooth call his reraise... I think my line would be as follows:

flop
villain checks, hero bets 150, villain raises to 450, hero calls 300 after some deliberation

turn
if the villain checks then I would be very wary of 99 and if I was really concerned about losing the least when behind I would check behind here. However this is not how I would actually play this hand, just an option if you fear that 99 is out. If he checked I would bet the most that he could call with QQ (750-1250 player dependent).

If he bet into me on the turn I would probably smooth call and pop the river about half the time, and raise him right there (either min raising or going all in, whichever was weaker, probably the all in), about half the time.

-Steve

[coltrane]

Hi Steve,

I hear what you're saying....couple things though.....if you're going to use the 5% probability logic, when exactly are those times that you might not go broke to a villain with 99.....when you have a read, the pot odds are questionable, etc. right?.....I just think that sometimes these probabilities cannot be looked at purely from a game theory perspective (of course sometimes they can as well).....

also, keep in mind that the pot on the flop is less than 8% of my remaining stack.....I can honestly say that I will NOT always go broke with my hand on that flop with the right read, etc (I am not necessarily justifying this particular hand, but just saying generally)......also, if we're gonna talk probability, it should be acknowledged that it's very possible for AK to be a likely holding for him (more combinations than for a pair) - in which case he's quite the type to bluff two barrels on the turn and river if I check the flop (as well as call two barrels if he fishes for/hits an ace or king).......but I see the point you're making and I guess the whole point is: am I/should I be committed to going to felt with my hand with that flop......also, remember I haven't given the results yet.... [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]