Too much? Middle pair plus an idiot straight draw in the BB.

Octopus · #1 01-21-2005, 01:42 PM

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

CO is 43/0 (in 81 hands). I have seen him limp with KK; I have seen him limp with 74s. His AF is .4; this seems to be mostly driven by the fact that he never folds or raises. In the 43 times I have seen him take a flop, he has folded on the flop 7 times. I have never seen him raise on any street.

MP1 is 62/0, and passive.

Button and SB are unknown to me.

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP1 calls, 2 folds, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP1 checks, CO bets, Button folds, SB calls, Hero raises, MP1 folds, CO calls, SB calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, CO calls, SB folds.

River: (7.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 9.50 BB

With the knowledge that CO never raises, I clearly should have bet the river. (I didn't know that until I started preparing this post.) I am concerned here with the flop. If MP1 bet or if there were a bettor and two callers to me, I would just call. (Two bets to me is a fold.) Comments?

Gravy (Gravy Smoothie) · #2 01-21-2005, 01:44 PM

With four opponents, I am checking this flop with the intention of folding.

chief444 · #3 01-21-2005, 01:46 PM

I don't understand why you check/raised the flop. Well, I understand why you checked. I don't understand the raise.

edit...I guess I can at least add that I would prefer to check/fold. I think calling would be better than raising but not as good as folding.

Octopus · #4 01-21-2005, 02:02 PM

Ok, why not check-fold the flop.

If I am behind, I probably have two outs (the fours). I probably have 4 outs (the fives). I probably have three outs (the twos). Depending on how much we should discount those outs (a point of great possible disagreement, I am sure), I think I have about 6 outs equivalent. When I check the flop and it comes back to me, there are 7 bets in the pot; enough to take one off, particularly if I do not think MP1 will check raise (which I don't). So EVEN IF I KNEW I WAS BEHIND to a pocket pair or 6x, I would want to call here.

On the other hand, I could easily be ahead, but if I am, every additional player in the hand hurts me a lot. They have overcards almost certainly, and so have six outs twice to beat me. If there were two left to act instead of one (that is, if the button had bet rather than the CO) I think a raise would be clear. Here I think it is marginal perhaps, but certainly not bad.

In short, I think folding is wrong and raising is defensible, if marginal.

chief444 · #5 01-21-2005, 02:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
CO is 43/0 (in 81 hands). I have seen him limp with KK; I have seen him limp with 74s. His AF is .4; this seems to be mostly driven by the fact that he never folds or raises. In the 43 times I have seen him take a flop, he has folded on the flop 7 times. I have never seen him raise on any street.

[/ QUOTE ]
So what makes you think you're ahead after CO bets?

Octopus · #6 01-21-2005, 02:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
So what makes you think you're ahead after CO bets?

[/ QUOTE ]

CO bets about 40% of the time he is first to act on the flop. Don't read too much into his low aggression number. It is driven by lack of folding/raising, not by lack of betting.

chief444 · #7 01-21-2005, 02:48 PM

Well, that does make it somewhat better. But you still have SB who called the CO bet and only a very loose MP1 in between you and CO. I still don't like it.

Fat Nicky · #8 01-21-2005, 02:06 PM

With 2 really passive players in the hand, why not bet the flop???? This seems like a horrible spot for a check-raise as your hand is weak and you will be out of position on the turn.

Octopus · #9 01-21-2005, 02:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
With 2 really passive players in the hand, why not bet the flop???? This seems like a horrible spot for a check-raise as your hand is weak and you will be out of position on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is my basic question too. In my defense:

Passive players get that way because of an inability to fold. Here I believe that, even assuming I am ahead, my pot equity is not that great unless I can get some of these people to fold. So I go for a check-raise, and if I end up giving/getting a free card, well ... worse things have happened to a pair of fours with no kicker in a not-too-big pot.

Fat Nicky · #10 01-21-2005, 02:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Passive players get that way because of an inability to fold

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly the reason why a check/raise really doesn't make much sense to me.